1. Opinions of Puerto Rican Voters in Florida
Post-Election Survey
November 2016

2. Methodology
A survey of 500 November 2016 general election Puerto Rican voters registered and living in Florida was conducted by telephone using professional interviewers. Half (51%) of all interviews were conducted via cell phone only households and calls were completed November 10-15, Interviews were conducted in both English and Puerto Rican Spanish. The margin of error for the sample as a whole is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error for subgroups varies and is higher. Our previous poll in May surveyed 701 Puerto Rican voters in Florida from May 11-17, 2016, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.
© Anzalone Liszt Grove Research

3. Polling Summary
According to our post-election poll, Hillary Clinton won the Puerto Rican vote in Florida by a greater than 3:1 margin overall (62% Clinton / 20% Trump / 5% Other / 12% refused). Compare this to CNN exit polls that had the overall Florida Latino vote at 62% Clinton / 35% Trump and the non-Cuban Latino vote at 71% Clinton / 26% Trump.
Hillary Clinton remains well liked by the Puerto Rican community, but her margins among Republicans and Independents shifted significantly since our May benchmark survey. Some voters tilted toward partisan tendencies, but among self-identified Independents, Clinton’s popularity also took a hit. Some persuadable voters appears to have moved away from Clinton over the last six months.
Support for Puerto Rican statehood remains consistent and very strong. In every question type asked in the last two polls, statehood status is the preference of the Florida Diaspora and this sentiment spans the political spectrum. Supporting statehood is also a popular political position for officeholders and candidates, as a majority of voters are more likely to support a pro-statehood candidate.
There are indications among the Puerto Rican community in Florida of a late-break towards Trump. Yes, Clinton won the Puerto Rican vote by a strong margin, but changes in popularity and ‘late deciders’ who made their vote choice in the final month of the campaign voted for Clinton by a margin net -13 points less than those who made their mind up a month out or more.
© Anzalone Liszt Grove Research

4. Lay of the land

5. Ethnic and Language Landscape
Key Demographic Breakdown
41% men / 59% women
Party registration: 51% Democrat / 18% Republican / 31% NPA and Other
Age breakdown:
22% age 18-34
30% age 35-49
26% age 50-64
21% age 65+
Region Breakdown:
58% Orlando media market
19% Tampa media market
14% Miami media market
© Anzalone Liszt Grove Research

6. Florida Puerto Ricans lean Democratic in registration and self-identification, but only one-in-four consider themselves liberal.
Quite a number of Puerto Ricans (35%) identify as moderate-to-conservative Democrats. 42 26
Liberal Conservative Moderate Don’t Know
© Anzalone Liszt Grove Research

7. POPULARITY OF POLITICAL FIGURES Popularity among Independents:
Barack Obama continues to be highly revered among the Florida diaspora and was a great surrogate for Puerto Rican voters.
The gap between Clinton and Obama is striking, as is the comparison between Marco Rubio and Donald Trump. Florida Puerto Ricans clearly look beyond just party labels in rating these figures.
POPULARITY OF POLITICAL FIGURES
Popularity among Independents:
Obama: fav
Clinton: fav
Rubio: fav
Trump: fav
FAV – UNFAV
+63
+38 --
- 46
© Anzalone Liszt Grove Research

8. Clinton’s popularity trailed Obama most among Independent men, highly educated voters, and younger Puerto Ricans.
Meanwhile, Trump’s favorable rating trailed Rubio’s most among Democratic men and in Hillsborough County.
Clinton – Obama Favorability Gap Clinton % favorable deficit
Trump – Rubio Favorability Gap Trump % favorable deficit
Total %
Independent Men -29%
Post-College Degree -25%
Men < %
Partisan Score %
Self ID Independents -23%
Millenials age %
Self ID Republicans -20%
Total %
Democratic Men -34%
Hillsborough County -29%
Post-College degree -26%
Late Deciders -26%
Self ID Democrats -24%
Spanish Language Survey -24%
Favor Puerto Rican Statehood -21%
© Anzalone Liszt Grove Research

9. The presidential ELECTION

10. Hillary maintained a greater than 2:1 favorable image, with more Puerto Ricans rating her “very favorable” than the total who rate her “unfavorable.”
Compared to May, Clinton’s net favorable rating increased by +9 points among Democrats and decreased by -5 points among Republicans – a sign of partisans becoming polarized later in the cycle.
HILLARY CLINTON POPULARITY 66 64
Puerto Rican Subgroups Most Favorable to Clinton
Liberal Dems (94% fav / 6% unfav)
Dems age 50+ (91% fav / 7% unfav)
Mod/Consv Dems (86% fav / 10% unfav)
Mothers (77% fav / 17% unfav)
Spanish Interviews (75% fav / 18% unfav)
Orange County (72% fav / 19% unfav) 31 28
November May 2016

11. DONALD TRUMP POPULARITY Puerto Rican Subgroups Trump Popularity Change
Trump remained very disliked, however his popularity among the Florida Diaspora did improve by net +20 points over six months.
Trump’s image improved most among Republicans, Independents, younger voters, men, and Spanish speakers. With some of these groups he remained underwater, but did move the needle over the campaign.
DONALD TRUMP POPULARITY 80
Puerto Rican Subgroups Trump Popularity Change 68
ID GOP (71% fav / 24% unfav); Net +52% Increase
ID Ind. (28% fav / 57% unfav); Net +38% Increase
Age <50 (25% fav / 69% unfav); Net +31% Increase
Men (32% fav / 57% unfav); Net +26% Increase
Spanish (16% fav / 81% unfav); Net +25% Increase 22 14
November May 2016

12. Clinton won the Puerto Rican vote by a greater than 3:1 margin, but her vote share dropped by -5 points since May, while Trump’s increased +4 points.
Another 6% of Puerto Ricans voted for a Third Party candidate or skipped the Presidential altogether.
PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

13. Clinton’s lead held steady among Puerto Rican Democrats, but dropped significantly among Republicans, Independents, and voters under age 50.
PRESIDENTIAL VOTE Key Subgroup
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Other / Skipped
Refused
Net Change from May
TOTAL
62%
20% 6%
12%
- 9%
Men
51%
27% 12
10%
- 5%
Women
70%
15% 3%
- 12%
ID Democrat
88% 4% 5%
-1%
ID Independent
39%
19%
18%
25%
-21%
ID Republican
71% 2% 9%
-20%
Age <50
61%
22% 8%
-18%
Age 50+
64%
17%
16%
+2%

14. Clinton held strong leads with Puerto Ricans with more crossover vote than Trump, but her margins dropped outside of the core Dem. base.
Over the course of the campaign, Puerto Rican Republicans and conservatives came home – and Clinton dropped a few points among the middle.
In the election for President could you please tell me whether you voted for-- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump?
CLINTON – TRUMP
+42
+74
- 30
+32
+74
+53
+17
© Anzalone Liszt Grove Research

15. Clinton’s margins were near-even among Puerto Ricans in Miami and Orlando and, much like our May poll, closer in Tampa.
Another interesting finding is that Trump was able to pull 20% of the vote among the voters who are most pro-statehood.
In the election for President could you please tell me whether you voted for-- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump?
CLINTON – TRUMP
+42
+46
+44
+30
+41
+43
+42
© Anzalone Liszt Grove Research

16. Among Clinton voters, 67% said their vote was more for Clinton and 26% said their vote was more against Trump.
Given that Clinton got 62% of the vote in this post-election look, we can say that roughly 42% of Puerto Ricans were casting a genuinely pro-Clinton vote.
Thinking about your vote for President, would you say your vote was more for Hillary Clinton, or against Donald Trump?
Total Men Women < ID Dem. ID Ind ID GOP

17. Most Puerto Ricans decided more than a month out, and these voters were more strongly in the Clinton camp. Trump did marginally better among “late deciders” who chose their candidate in the final month before the election.
And when did you make up your mind about how to vote for President? Did you decide...
In the election for President could you please tell me whether you voted for-- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump?

18. Patrick Murphy led Marco Rubio by +23 points among the Diaspora, but underperformed Clinton’s margin by -19 points statewide with these voters.
Murphy lagged behind Clinton most with late deciders, those newer to the mainland, Spanish speakers, and Democratic men.
U.S. SENATE VOTE
U.S. SENATE VOTE Key Subgroup
Murphy
Rubio
Net Murphy
Net Clinton
Net Diff.
TOTAL
54%
31%
+23%
+42%
- 19%
Late Deciders
47%
46% +1
+41%
- 40%
Mainland <10 Years
52%
38%
+14%
+51%
- 37%
Spanish Speakers
51%
32%
+19%
+55%
- 36%
Post-College Degree
44%
+2%
+38%
Democratic Men
68%
22%
+46%
+79%
- 33%
Osceola County
33%
+18%
-24%

19. PUERTO RICAN STATUS

20. Similar to May, Nearly eight in 10 prefer making Puerto Rico the 51st state.
Opinions on statehood are very consistent – Independent, separate nation statuses remain majority opposed.
Now, I am going to read you a list of proposals about Puerto Rico. After I read each one, favor or oppose that proposal. 77 74 58 55 38 33 18 19
Making Puerto Rico the 51st state, a full and equal part of the United States
Continuing Puerto Rico with its present status as a territory, or Commonwealth, of the United States
Making Puerto Rico an independent nation separate from the United States, with its own citizenship, but with an arrangement of free association…
Making Puerto Rico an independent, separate nation with its own citizenship from the United States

21. OPINIONS ON PUERTO RICAN STATUS PROPOSALS
Each of the status options tested very close to our May poll, underscoring the consistency of statehood support.
OPINIONS ON PUERTO RICAN STATUS PROPOSALS
FULL STATEHOOD SUPPORT Key Subgroup
Favor
Oppose
Net Favor Nov. 2016
Net Favor May 2016
Net Change from May
Making Puerto Rico the 51st state, a full and equal part of the United States
77%
18%
+59%
+63%
- 4%
Continuing Puerto Rico with its present status as a territory, or Commonwealth, of the United States
55%
38%
+17%
+18%
-1%
Making Puerto Rico an independent nation separate from the United States, with its own citizenship, but with an arrangement of free association…
33%
58%
-25%
-33%
+8%
Making Puerto Rico an independent, separate nation with its own citizenship from the United States
19%
74%
-55%
-51%
-4%

22. MAKING PUERTO RICO THE 51ST STATE Support by Presidential Vote:
Among Puerto Ricans, there’s strong support for statehood across partisan and Presidential support lines.
MAKING PUERTO RICO THE 51ST STATE
Support by Presidential Vote:
Clinton: +61 favor
Trump: +50 favor
FAVOR – OPPOSE
+63
+64
+67
+57
© Anzalone Liszt Grove Research

23. Full Statehood is supported by a majority of the Diaspora across gender, age, and party lines – but there has been some drops in support among Independents, younger voters, and men.
FULL STATEHOOD SUPPORT Key Subgroup
Favor
Oppose
Net Favor Nov. 2016
Net Favor May 2016
Net Change from May
TOTAL
77%
18%
+59%
+63%
- 4%
Men
+67%
- 8%
Women
78%
+60% --
ID Democrat
79%
19%
+64%
ID Independent
67%
+48%
- 19%
ID Republican
80%
14%
+66%
+57%
- 9%
Age <50
75%
20%
+55%
- 12%
Age 50+
16%
+6%

24. And when pitted against each other in a forced choice, a majority of voters continue to choose the 51st State status.
This data is also consistent – as statehood is the preferred choice in all three question types.
And if you had to pick only one status option for Puerto Rico, which of the below proposals is your preference?
STRAIGHT ASK
If the United States Congress offered Puerto Rico statehood, would you support it?
83%
Yes
11% No
MAY: 82% Yes / 14% No
© Anzalone Liszt Grove Research

25. Full statehood is the top choice for almost every group, but those who took the survey in Spanish are more divided, as one-third of them want a completely separate nation.
Making Puerto Rico an independent, separate nation with its own citizenship from the United States
11%
Making Puerto Rico an independent nation separate from the United States with its own citizenship but with an arrangement of free association
10%
Continuing Puerto Rico with its present status as a territory, or Commonwealth, of the United States
19%
Making Puerto Rico the 51st state, a full and equal part of the United States
56%
Similar to May, a majority of those who oppose statehood flock to keeping the current status.
And if you had to pick only one status option for Puerto Rico, which of the below proposals is your preference?
Miami Market: 66%
College Grads: 64%
ID Republican: 62%
Oppose statehood: 58%
Men age 50+: 25%
Clinton/Rubio voters: 24%
Ind. Women: 15%
Age 50-64: 14%
Spanish Survey: 34%
Hillsborough Co: 20%
Age 65+: 18%
More likely to pick this:
© Anzalone Liszt Grove Research

26. Opinions by Party & Presidential Vote:
A majority of Puerto Rican voters in Florida continue to say they are more likely to support a candidate that backs statehood.
This was a winning issue position across political parties and Presidential vote support – even 55% of Trump voters back statehood.
Would you be more or less likely to vote for a U.S. Presidential candidate who will work aggressively to achieve U.S. statehood for Puerto Rico, or does it not matter to you all that much?
Opinions by Party & Presidential Vote:
ID Dem.: 59% more likely
ID Ind: 52% more likely
ID GOP: 59% more likely
Clinton voters: 59% more likely
Trump voters: 55% more likely 62 57 33 24 9 3
November Poll May Poll

27. Conclusions
The Florida Diaspora was loyal to Hillary Clinton, but her overwhelming support margins from May did not quite hold. Republicans became more partisan and crossover support decreased, but Clinton’s margins among Independents dropped by net -21points and support from Puerto Ricans under age 50 dropped by net -18 points.
Both nominees became slightly better liked. Clinton marginally increased her favorability by net +5 points and while Trump was still far underwater at 22 fav / 68 unfav, this represents a net +20 point improvement since May. Trump became more palatable for some conservative, Republican-leaning Puerto Ricans.
Despite small changes in the partisan landscape, statehood status for Puerto Rico remains steady and strongly supported. Florida Puerto Ricans clearly want to take action and their preference is 51st statehood status.
Statehood looks to be a winning political position when trying to maximize support in the Florida Puerto Rican community. Majorities of Clinton and Trump voters, and those across parties say they are more likely to vote for a pro-statehood candidate. Conversely, very few voters (only 3%) would punish a candidate for this political stance.
© Anzalone Liszt Grove Research