1. 2018-19 Corn Situation and Outlook
Southern Region Extension Outlook Conference
Atlanta, GA
September 25, 2018
Todd D. Davis
Assistant Extension Professor

2. U.S. Corn Condition Index

3. to 2023
Plant to 92.3 mil acres
Harvest

7. Feed Use

8. FSI and Ethanol Use – 1980 to 2018

9. FSI Use (Not Ethanol) – 1980-2018

10. Ethanol Use –

13. Export Use – 1975 – 2018

15. US Days of Corn Stocks

16. World Days of Corn Stocks

17. U.S. and World Corn Ending Stocks

18. Curse of good yields. Not likely to collect on RP insurance even with a low Harvest price

19. Budgeted Returns – 2018 Corn

20. Deferred price – Harvest Price ($3.25) – monthly interest
5.5%. Commercial is $0.20 to Jan 31 +$0.04/mo

21. Implied Change to 2018 Production – Sep to January Final

22. 2018-19 Potential Change to Production and Effect on Stocks and Price

25. Simulated 2019 Return over TVC + Overhead ($/Acre) – Probability < $0 (Red) or >$200 (Green)

26. Hitting the Top 1/3 (and Avoiding the Bottom 1/3) for December Corn Futures

28. Summary and Conclusions
Corn has a bullish story of declining world stock and declining domestic stocks. Exports could increase if dollar doesn’t strengthen.
Price risk management and marketing plan is important to prepare for pricing opportunities. Futures market has provided brief opportunities of >$4.00 DEC futures last three years if prepared to hedge
Corn market could handle 1.95 million more acres in 2019 IF we can get trend yields. Concern is if we “buy” a lot more acres and are blessed with above trend yields. Especially market’s reaction to perceived large planted area

29. Thank you! I would be happy to answer any questions that you may have.
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