1. Probability of daily precipitation > 10 mm
Week 1 - significant daily precipitation
Probability of daily precipitation > 10 mm
Week 1 (P168H)

2. Probability of daily precipitation > 10 mm
Week 2 - significant daily precipitation
Probability of daily precipitation > 10 mm
Week 2 (P336H)

3. Probability of accumulated precipitation > 50 mm
Week 1, 2 - Possible fire ending events (> 50 mm)
Probability of accumulated precipitation > 50 mm
Week 1&2

4. Probability of daily wind speed > 50 km/h
Week 1,2 – Likelihood of sudden fire growth
Probability of daily wind speed > 50 km/h
Week 1&2

5. Probability of daily wind speed > 15 km/h
Week 1,2 - Low wind speeds reduce likelihood of sudden fire growth
Probability of daily wind speed > 15 km/h
Week 1&2

6. Probable temperature departures
Week 2 - Categorical probability of temperature (high/normal/low)
Probable temperature departures
Week 2

7. Mean and Standard Deviation of the 500 hPa
Week hpa heights show the likely areas of ridges and troughs (standard deviation indicates the uncertainty)
Mean and Standard Deviation of the 500 hPa
168 H (7 days)

8. Mean and Standard Deviation of the 500 hPa
Week hpa heights show the likely areas of ridges and troughs (standard deviation indicates the uncertainty)
Mean and Standard Deviation of the 500 hPa
336H (14 days)

9. Mean and Standard Deviation of the 1000-500 hPa Thickness
Week hpa heights show the likely areas of ridges and troughs (standard deviation indicates the uncertainty)
Mean and Standard Deviation of the hPa Thickness
168 H (7 days)

10. Mean and Standard Deviation of the 1000-500 hPa Thickness
Week hpa heights show the likely areas of ridges and troughs (standard deviation indicates the uncertainty)
Mean and Standard Deviation of the hPa Thickness
336 H (14 days)

11.
Latest observed BUI
Current

12.
Week 1 - BUI
Week 1

13.
Week 2 - BUI
Week 2

14. CANSIPS Temperature Precipitation 7 day outlook (May 12-18)
CANSIPS
Temperature
Precipitation
Week 1 - CanSIPS categorical probability of temperature and of precipitation (high/normal/low)
7 day outlook (May 12-18)

15. CANSIPS Temperature Precipitation 14 day outlook (May 19-25)
CANSIPS
Temperature
Precipitation
Week 2 - CanSIPS categorical probability of temperature and of precipitation (high/normal/low)
14 day outlook (May 19-25)

16. CANSIPS Temperature Precipitation 30 day outlook (from May 12)
CANSIPS
Temperature
Precipitation
30 days – CanSIPS categorical probability of temperature and of precipitation (high/normal/low)
30 day outlook (from May 12)

17. EPSgrams from NAEFS for next 14 days
NAEFS
14 day NAEFS predictions (shown as box whiskers) for Fort McMurray and Sault Ste. Marie
EPSgrams from NAEFS for next 14 days

18.
ENSO Plume provided by the International Research Institute (Columbia University) models

19. CanSIPS prediction within the ENSO plume within plume
CanSIPS prediction within the ENSO plume within plume

20. ENSO strengths over 25 years
ENSO strengths over 25 years

21. 2016 was a extreme value (if not the highest)
2016 was a extreme value (if not the highest)

22. CANSIPS May-June-July
CANSIPS
3-month categorical Temperature anomaly (% probability per category)
May-June-July

23. CANSIPS May-June-July
CANSIPS
3 month categorical precipitation anomaly (% probability per category)
May-June-July

24. SUMMARY
May 12 – 26, 2016
Conditions In Alberta and Saskatchewan have settled for this week thought it is expected to build again next week. Conditions in northeastern BC are expected to remain high.
The only significant rainfall events appear to occur in Alberta foothills, Manitoba /western Ontario and part of Quebec.
Significant winds off coast of Nova Scotia but fire danger remains low.
Fire danger conditions in Ontario and Manitoba may begin to rise next week
El Nino is collapsing and La Nina conditions are expected to take hold in late June or early July. Fire danger conditions throughout the country are expected to fall to normal.