1. PRODCOM – how can we reduce the survey’s costs?
Derek Bird
Deputy Director
Office for National Statistics

2. Background
Pressure on public sector finances impacts on budgets for surveys
Prodcom is an expensive survey requiring lots of detail
Recognise that Eurostat has made steps with Prodcom:
Quarterly Inquiry abolished 2005 – reducing survey questionnaires by 14k pa
Products have reduced from 4,500 to 4,000

3. More can be done
CPA
Chocolate and food preparations containing cocoa (excepted sweetened cocoa powder) other than in bulk forms
PRODCOM
Filled chocolate blocks, slabs or bars consisting of a centre (including of cream, liqueur or fruit paste; excluding chocolate biscuits)
Chocolate blocks, slabs or bars with added cereal, fruit or nuts (excluding filled, chocolate biscuits)
Chocolate blocks, slabs or bars (excluding filled, with added cereal; fruit or nut chocolate biscuits)
Chocolates (including pralines) containing alcohol (excluding in blocks, slabs or bars)
Chocolates (excluding those containing alcohol, in blocks, slabs or bars)
Filled chocolate confectionery (excluding in blocks, slabs or bars, chocolate biscuits, chocolate
Chocolate confectionery (excluding filled, in blocks, slabs or bars, chocolate biscuits, chocolates
Sugar confectionery and substitutes therefore made from sugar substitution products, containing cocoa (including chocolate nougat) (excluding white chocolate)
Chocolate spreads
Preparations containing cocoa for making beverages
Food products with cocoa (excluding cocoa paste, butter, powder, blocks, slabs, bars, liquid, paste, powder, granular, other bulk form in packings > 2kg, to make beverages, chocolate spreads)

4. ONS position Survey questionnaires reduced from 24,000 to 21,500
Survey costs reduced from £726k (2007) to £675k (2010)
But ONS budget set to fall by 20 per cent in next 4 years so more needs to be done…
How?

5. Reducing costs Cut the sample Improve efficiency
Change the mode of collection
Reduce the number of items surveyed
Revise the methodology
All of the above?

6. Reducing costs – methodology option
Range, frequency and timeliness fixed by Regulation
But estimation of value and volume of Products could be introduced if other, high quality auxiliary information is available
Consider running Prodcom over two years, estimating for products in ‘missing’ year

7. Reducing costs – methodology option
Split products into coherent halves and collect each half in alternate years
Estimate for each half in ‘missing’ years using PPI, for value, and (deflated) IoP for volume
Revise for estimated half when next collected (business to provide t and t-1)

8. PPIs PPI available at 4 digit level showing change in value of product
Could we apply this level to 8 digit PRODCOM as a good enough proxy?
Issues:
PPI sample derived from PRODCOM sample
using PPIs in non-sampled year, assumes no change in manufacturing industry;
cannot produce reliable volume data;
Annual chainlinking

9. Time for a ‘grey sky’ agenda and your thoughts will be welcome
Conclusion
Time for a ‘grey sky’ agenda and your thoughts will be welcome
Thank you