1. Modeling the Effects of Disasters on a Human Population and Resources
TJHSST Computer Systems Tech Lab
Modeling the Effects of Disasters on a Human
Population and Resources
Joshua Yoon

2. Abstract
Recently over the past decades, numerous disasters such as the earthquakes and tsunamis have struck all over the world
So this project will
model the effects of these disasters on a human population
be able to extrapolate the effects of future disasters on a nearby human population using a System Dynamics approach

3. Background System Dynamics
an approach to understanding the behavior of complex systems over time
deals with internal feedback loops and time delays
System Dynamics vs. Agent-based Modeling
System Dynamics is relationship based (between variables)
whereas agent-based is random interactions between individuals of a population

4. Background cont. Programming Languages
Current System Dynamics modeler used is "Stella"
Arguments are already given with the program
NetLogo
Arguments are not given, so separate variables and the relationships between them must be created manually
Uses of System Dynamics
System Dynamics can be used in many different ways, but mainly to simulate efficiency
Train System Efficiency
Policy on flood prevention

5. Methodology/Procedure
Create a human population that behaves like a human population (logistical growth)
Implement a resource class, which inhibits unlimited growth of the population (carrying capacity)
Implement disasters so that human population drops and recovers over time (recovery curve)
Compare simulation test results with results from actual disasters

6. The Complete Web

7. Looking into the Web... Disaster Class: Disaster death rates
Disaster check
Death rate due to disasters

8. Looking into the Web... Human Class: Birth rate & Influx of New People
The combined death rate (not disaster related + disaster related)
Growth during no disaster vs. post-disaster

9. Looking into the Web... Resource Class:
Growth during no disaster vs. post-disaster
The season variable (oscillations)
Natural death rate

10. Looking into the Web... Time Keepers:
Keeps track of time before and after disaster
Day corresponds to season, and timeafterdisaster keeps track of time elapsed after a disaster

11. Results & Conclusions Simulations are now running
Resource class and human class work together and relationship is obvious
Disasters work without glitches or bugs

12. Results & Conclusions cont.
What needs to be done now...
Get data collected after actual disasters and modify certain constants to make my simulation accurately model the situation
Fix any glitches that might still exist in the program
Add other variables in order to make the system more dynamic