1. Is the Belt and Road Initiative Sustainable?
Scott Morris
Center for Global Development
@Morris_ScottA
Scott Morris | December 7th, | CGDev.org

2. DEMAND FOR BRI INVESTMENT
Scott Morris | December 7th, | CGDev.org

3. ADB estimates 5.9% of GDP infrastructure “need” in Asia, compared with current levels of spending well below that outside of China
Scott Morris | December 7th, | CGDev.org

4. Outside of telecomms, infrastructure is still largely public, so sovereign debt sustainability is key.

5. A lot hinges on raising domestic revenues; less debt space otherwise.

6. The need for green infrastructure.
Source: Brookings, 2016.
Scott Morris | December 7th, | CGDev.org

7. SUPPLY CONSIDERATIONS
Scott Morris | December 7th, | CGDev.org

8. BRI lending still overwhelmingly dollar dependent, evidenced by CDB’s cross-border portfolio.
CDB Annual Report, $262b in foreign currency loans; RMB 83.4b.
Scott Morris | December 7th, | CGDev.org

9. Looking for BRI Partners
Scott Morris | December 7th, | CGDev.org

10. POLICY RISKS/REFORMS
Scott Morris | December 7th, | CGDev.org

11. BRI debt risks are significant, but not endemic.
Scott Morris | December 7th, | CGDev.org

12. China is an important creditor to low-income countries and a REALLY important creditor to the riskiest low-income countries
Source: IMF. “Post-HIPCs” includes Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mauritania, Mozambique, and Zambia.
Scott Morris | December 7th, | CGDev.org

13. The case of the Lao Railway.
Scott Morris | December 7th, | CGDev.org

14. Not yet a green BRI.
Source: World Resources Institute and Boston University Global Development Policy Center, 2018.
Scott Morris | December 7th, | CGDev.org

15. China’s policy banks are not well-aligned with global project standards.
Scott Morris | December 7th, | CGDev.org

16. Chinese firms can compete without tied procurement.
Scott Morris | December 7th, | CGDev.org