1. Central Europe: Financial Market Impact of EU Enlargement
Goldman Sachs
Central Europe: Financial Market Impact of EU Enlargement
Erik F. Nielsen Managing Director
Copenhagen January 2003

2. Output and Labour Input

3. Productivity Momentum
Productivity growth manufacturing, % yoy
Poland
Czech
Hungary
Germany
Jan-03

4. High Investment Ratios

5. FDI Comparison

6. Central and South Europe%

7. Skilled Labour Force

8. Real Exchange Rates

9. PPP Exchange Rates

10. Still Competitive

11. Productivity Relative to EU

12. Real Exchange Rates

13. Long-term Projection PLN
EUR/PLN

14. Long-term Projection CZK
EUR/CZK

15. Long-term Projection HUF
EUR/HUF

16. Poland: Equilibrium Yields

17. Hungary: Equilibrium Yields

18. Czech: Equilibrium Yields

19. Yield Convergence

20. Equity Outperformance

21. Sequence of Convergence

22. Maastricht Criteria
Goldman Sachs 2002 Forecast