1. FUTURES STUDIES Causal Layered Analysis
محمد حیدری
دانشجوی دکترای اپیدمیولوژی
دانشگاه علوم پزشکی کرمان

2. Six Pillars of Foresight
Mapping the future
Anticipating the future
Timing the future
Deepening the future
Creating alternatives
Transforming the future

3. DEEPENING THE FUTURE Causal layered analysis

5. Litany:
- visible
- disconnected news events
Systemic:
- social, technological, economic, environmental and political causes
Discourses:
- stakeholders
- ideologies
- worldviews
Myths-metaphors:
- stories
- legends
- myths of trauma and transcendence

6. Causal Layered Analysis
Newspaper headlines, superficial, common public perceptions
Litany
Social causes
STEEP analysis
Public Unconscious
Superficial Deep Meaning
Cultural/social/religious perspective or worldview
Worldview
Emotional, images or deep meanings
Myth

7. Who is responsible to fix it
Causal Layered Analysis
Level
Issue / Problem
Solution
Who is responsible to fix it
Source
Litany (Visible)
Problem seems too difficult to solve
Short term approaches
Governments / I cant do anything about it
Television/ Newspapers
Systemic
(Causes)
Problem because of short term historical factors or it is a process or system issue
Integrated approaches – systemic solutions
Partnerships between sectors of society – Government plus industries
Policy Journals, editorials
Worldview
Constituted by frame of analysis, deep structures of belief & assumption
Transform, rethink self and others, change paradigm
Writers, philosophers, those outside the dominant language
Peripheral journals,
Myth /
Metaphor
Constituted core myths / stories
Alternative stories
Collective unconscious often guided by visions
Work of artists, visionaries,

8. CLA REALITY TIME “real” “imagined” Litany Social system & structure
Worldview
Myth & Metaphor
“imagined”
TIME
Short term
Long term

9. CLA - Stakeholders Stakeholders management Employees Unofficial

10. CLA - Ideologies Ideologies conservative Feminist Green Left L O N G T

11. CLA - Worldviews Worldviews Indigenous Confucian Islamic West L O N G

12. Conventional Epistemes
CLA - Epistemes
Ancient
Pre-modern
Modern
Post-modern L O N G T E R M
Conventional Epistemes

13. METAPHORS OF THE FUTURE