1. Economics of Reproduction: the Quality of the Pregnancy
Albert De Vries Associate Professor
Department of Animal Sciences
University of Florida
ADSA 2010
Dairy Cattle Reproduction Council Annual Meeting, Kansas City, Missouri, November 10-11, 2011

2. Acknowledgments John Cole David Galligan
Research Geneticist, USDA-Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory, Beltsville, MD
David Galligan
Professor, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Kennett Square, PA

3. Quality?
Gender
Genetic merit

4. Let’s talk about … Value of semen Genomics and sexed semen
Value: semen vs. genomic testing

5. Net present value of insemination =
Probability of conception (SCR)
Cost of days open
Probability of heifer calf
Lifetime Net Merit (NM$)
Gene flow
Time value of money
Cost of semen

6. USDA Net Merit economic values (2010) Lifetime values (≈ 3 years)
Trait
Units
Standard
deviation
(SD)
Value
($/PTA unit)
Relative value (%)
Protein
Pounds/305d 19
3.41 16
Fat 27
2.89
Milk (volume)
723
0.001
Productive life
Months
2.5 35 22
Somatic cell score
Log SCC
0.23
-182
-10
Udder
Composite
0.90 32 7
Feet and legs
1.03 15 4
Body size
-23 -6
Daughter pregnancy rate
Percent
1.70 11
Calving ability
Dollars 20 1 6
Net Merit
198
100
Cole[1406]
SD = genetic variation between animals = room for improvement (hypothetical unselected population)
SD of NM$, CM$, FM$ are $1938
Relative value = SD x Value($/PTA unit) / ∑ {SD x |Value($/PTA unit)|}

7. Sire data
Lifetime Net Merit (NM$) and sire conception rate (SCR) from August 2011 genetic evaluation
Retail semen prices from 2 AI companies
Complete data for 166 active AI sires

8. Sire conception rates 166 sires, August 2011 genetic evaluation

9. Present value vs. Net Merit 166 sires, August 2011, 2 AI companies

10. Net present value vs. retail semen price 166 sires, August 2011, prices from 2 AI companies

11. Return on investment in semen 166 sires, August 2011, prices from 2 AI companies

12. But … Actual semen price discounts unknown
I cannot compare AI companies
Maybe you do not like Net Merit?
Do you know your economic weights?

13. 2011: More heifers than we need?
Improved reproductive performance
Reduced involuntary culling (cow comfort )
Sexed semen
Earlier breeding (loss of bST)?
Kevin Jorgensen, in
Hoard’s Dairyman
April 10+25, 2011

14. Genomic testing of heifer calves?

15. Genetic progress = genetic variation x selection intensity x accuracy of test
How good the ranking is
Natural genetic differences
How picky we can be

16. Selection of heifer calves
Pre-rank calves based on pedigree info
3K SNP genomic test ($45, 65% reliability)
Not all calves need to be tested
Selection intensity depends on # heifer calves available
Sell surplus heifer calves

17. Genetic value of testing and selection of heifer calves for Net Merit
Calves selected
EBV selected calves (pre-ranked, 35% rel.)
Optimal
fraction calves tested with genomic test (65% rel.)
EBV selected calves (after genomic testing)
Cost of genomic testing per selected calf
NPV of selected calves
100% $0 -
90%
$40
70-100
$55
$15
$62
80%
$72
60-90
$93
$17
$112
70%
$103
50-90
$135
$26
$162
60%
$133
40-80
$172
$30
$209
50%
$165
30-70
$213
$36
$259
EBV = estimated breeding value, NPV = net present value

18. Herd profitability and # heifer calves Large spreadsheet
Statistic
Scenario
No sexed semen
2x sexed semen in heifers
Calves needed (#/cow/yr)
0.448
Calves available (#/cow/yr)
0.537
0.640
Heifer calves selected (%)
83%
70%
Avg. EBV dams ($)
$110
$112
Avg. EBV calves born ($)
$452
$456
Profit ($/milking cow/year)1
$471
$466
1 Excludes value of heifer calves
Now add value of heifer calves …

19. Bottom line economics No sexed semen 2x sexed semen
No sexed semen
2x sexed semen
Pre-ranking calf reliability 0%
35%
Genomic testing policy1
20-100
70-90
0-100
50-90
Statistics ($/cow/year):
Profit without heifer calf value
471
466
Heifer calves sold 18 39
NPV calves before pre-ranking
123
125
NPV calves due to pre-ranking 38 64
Added NPV from genomic testing 48 9 88 20
Cost of genomic testing 5 29 12
Heifer calf value
180
183
222
236
Profit with heifer calf value
651
654
688
702

20. Return on investment in genomic testing, 2 scenarios
Reliability pre-ranking
No sexed semen
2x sexed semen 0%
5.37 : 1
3.06 : 1
35%
1.82 : 1
1.73 : 1

21. Still lots of questions …
How many extra heifer calves?
Which dams supply heifer calves?
Sell or raise surplus heifers?
Cull more cows?
Use better genetics semen? …
Thank you