1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Sept. 11, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.0
94.0
90.2
89.1
0.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
168.4
174.6
176.6
178.4
4.4
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,586
356
Beg. Stocks
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,027
Imports 67 57 40 50
Total Supply
15,401
16,942
16,937
16,664
Feed & Residual
5,120
5,470
5,450
5,525
100
Ethanol
5,224
5,432
5,600
5,625
Food, Seed, & Other
1,422
1,453
1,460
1,480
Exports
1,898
2,294
2,400
2,350
125
Total Use
13,664
14,649
14,910
14,980
225
Ending Stocks
1,684
132
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.61
3.36
3.40
3.60
-0.20
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015
2016
2017
2018
Δ2018
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
82.7
83.4
90.1
89.6
0.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
48.0
52.0
49.1
51.6
3.1
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,926
4,296
4,392
4,586
276
Beg. Stocks
191
197
302
430
-35
Imports 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,140
4,515
4,715
5,040
240
Crush
1,886
1,901
2,040
2,060 15
Seed & Residual
122
146
136 1
Exports
1,936
2,166
2,110 20
Total Use
3,944
4,214
4,286
4,256 36
Ending Stocks
785
205
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
8.95
9.47
9.35
8.90
-0.35
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 4 4

5. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 5 5

6. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

7. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last year
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 7 7

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 10 10

11. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

12. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

13. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Advance Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

18. Soybean Market Shares Advance sales for 2018 Sales for 2017 crop
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Advance Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

20. Ethanol Production
Source: EIA

21. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

22. Current Corn Futures
4.01
3.72
Source: CME Group, 9/10/2018

23. Current Soybean Futures
8.88
8.40
Source: CME Group, 9/10/2018

24. 2018/19 Crop Margins

25. Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs

26. Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs

27. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

28. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: