1. Why Civil Resistance Works (and the role of the Catholic Church) Maria J. Stephan, Ph.D. U.S. Institute of Peace

2. Common Claims
Nonviolent resistance cannot succeed against powerful, repressive, or authoritarian regimes.
Nonviolent resistance is ineffective for achieving difficult demands, like the removal of a dictator or territorial change.
Violence does not always work, but it works better than nonviolence.

3. Global Success Rates of Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns 1900-2014
(Chenoweth + Stephan: Why Civil Resistance Works)2014
p<.001 (omitting ongoing cases) Source: MEC Dataset

4. Onsets of Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns,
(Chenoweth + Stephan)
Campaigns,
Source: MEC Dataset

5. Review of the Findings
Why has civil resistance succeeded so often relative to armed insurgency?

6. The Primacy of Participation
The quantity & quality of participation matters.

7. The Effects of Campaign Type on the Probability of Democracy Five Years After the Campaign
Probability that a Country is Democracy
Extremely rare for transitions driven by armed insurgency to be followed by democratic consolidation .
Our study and other indy studies found strong correlation btw NV campaigns and democracy; this was true even when the NV campaign failed
Movements are schoolhouses for democracy; skills in articulating alternative vision, coalition-building, collective action reinforce democratic norms and behaviors; very different from winner-take-all logic of armed insurgency
p=.00

8. Post-Conflict Civil War Onset
Violent
Campaigns
Nonviolent Campaigns
Probability of Experiencing a Civil War within Ten Years of the End of the Conflict
43%
28%
p=.07

9. Catholic Church and Civil Resistance
Great research by S. Nepstad, prof sociology at UNM; great webinar – “Religious Elites + Civil Resistance Struggles: Argentina, Chile, + El Salvador in 1970s”
Church is key POS in many countries; when Church (from hierarch to grassroots churches) stop supporting authoritarian regimes + start supporting resistance mvmts, can have powerful impact
Church can provide: legitimacy to resistance; resources; theological framework (social justice); safe spaces for training; songs/rituals; mobilizing networks; international allies
These represented in iconic images: 1. Filipino nuns starting down Marcos’ tanks + pleading w soldiers during ‘86 people power mvmt (plus key role played by Cardinal Jamie Sin and IFOR NV training by priests/nuns); 2. Legendary moral+material support that Polish pope JPII gave to Solidarity mvmnt led by Lech Walesa – pounded nail in coffin of communist tyranny; 3.Nobel Prize winner Bishop Belo of E. Timor, who was outspoken in denouncing HRs abuses by Indo regime, played key role in NV resistance; 4. First resistance group to dictator Augusto Pinochet of Chile was the Committee for Peace under the Archdiocese of Santiago – offered legal + financial assistance to resistance; Church hierarchy criticized junta; collected $tens of millions from Catholic grps in Europe/N. America; Chilean bishops had strong ties to poor/marginalized, many worked w CRS + saw suffering first-hand); 5. Bishop Oscar Romero of El Salvador, shown here giving radio address, after friend/fellow priest assassinated took powerful stand of solidarity w masses, later assassinated by death squad; despite this Church hierarchy divided – most bishops opposed civil resistance (many relig leaders had pos of infl in govt/mil; armed FMLN INS made many fear Marxist take-over)

10. Thanks, and Discussion Email:
Twitter:
@MariaJStephan

12. S. Nepstad research findings
Religious Elites and Civil Resistance Struggles: Argentina,
Chile and El Salvador in the 1970s (Webinar)
Religious leaders more willing to remain loyal to the state when Church receive political/econ benefits
Armed group activity has variable effects
Use of indiscriminate violence by the state not enough to prompt religious leader defections
Religious leaders’ personal experiences with the aggrieved/oppressed influences whether they join opposition
Church can provide safe space for trainings
Theology can provide moral inspiration for NV resistance

13. Civil Resistance vs. ISIS?
Fundamental questions:
How can self-organization and non-cooperation disrupt/deny
ISIS’ sources of power?
How can organized civilian
action strengthen resilience
and address drivers of extremism?

14. Challenging Non-State Armed Actors
Armed groups not monolithic
Organized collective action can influence pillars
Limited successes of “nudging” in Syria/Iraq
Autonomous structures violence vs. civilians (Kaplan)
But…
Levers are finite; collective action risky
Tougher in fractured communities
Groups bent on annihilation
unlikely to be nudged
Foreign fighters play by different rules

15. ISIS Sources of Power ISIS = INS + proto-totalitarian state
Legitimacy
Human Resources
Material Resources
Skills and Knowledge
Sanctions
Intangibles

16. Dissolving Roots of VE
Sense of injustice key to VE (2016 Mercy Corps study of Iraq)
Help communities challenge “push”
factors: corruption, exclusion
Support cross-sectarian dialogue, counter-
escalation and recruitment activities
Invest in local (popular) media contrarians;
nonviolent action skills-building