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Fig. 1 Empirical probability density functions of the estimated climatic drivers.
Empirical probability density functions of the estimated climatic drivers. (A) Freeze-up and (B) breakup dates and (C) sea-ice area of Arctic first-year ice as a function of latitude are shown from passive microwave data (32) (shading and green lines) and from the ensemble mean (blue lines) of CMIP5 data (table S1). The gray shading indicates the normalized empirical probability density value for each variable derived from the satellite data over the period 1979–2005. A darker color shows the more frequent days of freeze-up and breakup and the more typical first-year ice area at each latitude. The 50th (solid lines), 10th, and 90th (dashed lines) percentiles from the satellite and model ensemble distributions are shown. L. Tedesco et al. Sci Adv 2019;5:eaav4830 Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).
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