1. Returns to Prison for Violent (and Non-Violent) Offenders
Pamela E Oliver
University of Wisconsin – Madison
Marquette Conference on Alternatives to Revocation for Violent Offenders
June 3, 2019

2. Return to Prison (or arrest) ≠ Recidivism
Offender behavior + official behavior (surveillance + punishment)
People commit crimes & don’t get caught (surveillance)
Officials choose how to respond

3. University of Wisconsin–Madison
Data
National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP) term records
43 states have at least 5 years of records in this interval
only 20 states have records for all years
Snapshots use the last year for which a state had valid data (2016 in 38 cases, earlier for another 5)
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University of Wisconsin–Madison

4. University of Wisconsin–Madison
Violent Offenses
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University of Wisconsin–Madison

5. University of Wisconsin–Madison
national_offlong1viol_type.png 5/8/19 term2016_offlong1_counts.do
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6. University of Wisconsin–Madison
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University of Wisconsin–Madison

7. University of Wisconsin–Madison
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University of Wisconsin–Madison

8. University of Wisconsin–Madison
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University of Wisconsin–Madison

9. States Vary in Their Offender Mix
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10. University of Wisconsin–Madison
state_scatter_pct_anyviolent_SIalt.png 5/9/19 term2016_offense_counts.do uses offense_counts_offgroup_all.dta created by frequency count tables that were generated by term2016_allspells_basic.do on 5/8/19
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11. University of Wisconsin–Madison
term2016_offlong1_counts.do offlong_dist_states_inSI.png 5/8/19
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12. University of Wisconsin–Madison
term2016_offlong1_counts.do offlong_dist_states_admSI.png 5/8/19
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13. University of Wisconsin–Madison
term2016_offlong1_counts.do offlong_dist_statesPrelSI.png 5/8/19
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14. University of Wisconsin–Madison
First Release
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University of Wisconsin–Madison

15. University of Wisconsin–Madison
First release sample
NCRP term records
First record in NCRP, ends with a release from prison in
Exclude: death, escape, other
Types of release
Unconditional
To supervision (parole or its equivalent)
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University of Wisconsin–Madison

16. University of Wisconsin–Madison
Outcome
Did that person show up again in the merged term records created by Abt Associates?
No record #2 = survival/success
Other reasons for no record #2
Abt failure to match records
Deported
Died
Incarcerated in another state
If in the records
a new violent crime in the record  definition of violent recidivism
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University of Wisconsin–Madison

17. University of Wisconsin–Madison
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18. University of Wisconsin–Madison
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University of Wisconsin–Madison

19. Certainty of new crime information for returned violent offenders
percent
consistent no new crime 21
consistent new crime 48
inconsistent 20
uncertain 11
TOTAL
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University of Wisconsin–Madison

20. Combining Types of Readmissions (Violent Offenders)
New violent crime
New other crime
No new crime
Release Type
Unc.
Sup.
Admit Type
Commitment
Violent
Other
Ambig.
Prob. + new
Prob only
Parole + new
Parole only
None
Release type: Unc= unconditional, Sup = to supervision.
Ambiguous: there may be a new crime or not
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21. University of Wisconsin–Madison
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22. University of Wisconsin–Madison
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23. University of Wisconsin–Madison
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24. University of Wisconsin–Madison
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25. University of Wisconsin–Madison
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26. Variations by offense, gender & race, state
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27. University of Wisconsin–Madison
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28. University of Wisconsin–Madison
These are the four groups with lots of state prisoners. There are more Asians than Native Americans in the population, but not in the prisons.
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29. University of Wisconsin–Madison
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University of Wisconsin–Madison

30. University of Wisconsin–Madison
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31. University of Wisconsin–Madison
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32. University of Wisconsin–Madison
Data Summary
Low rate of new violent crimes
“ambiguous” looks more like no crime
New offenses are more often nonviolent than violent
Supervised release  high rate of re-incarceration with no new offense.
Relatively low variation by offender characteristics
Large between-state variation in returns to prison
?? Data coding?? (Some look like variations in data coding)
Policy differences
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University of Wisconsin–Madison

33. University of Wisconsin–Madison
Implications
Why imprison?
Vengeance or moral order
Prevent future crimes Would those imprisoned have offended again if not imprisoned?
Don’t be so quick to preemptively re-incarcerate people
Preventing re-offending depends on crime type
“Causes” of robbery are probably a desire for money, different from assaults, different from sex offenses.
Don’t be naïve about “recidivism” data. It always measures BOTH offender behavior AND official behavior.
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University of Wisconsin–Madison

34. Thank You Pamela Oliver pamela.oliver@wisc.edu @PamOliver1180
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