1. Project: Validating Deterrence Models for Scanning Technologies
Dennis Wagner
George Thompson*
ANSER
Project: Validating Deterrence Models for Scanning Technologies

2. Project Overview Research Premise Knowledge Gap Addressed
One goal of screening/scanning operations is to deter individuals from trying to smuggle illegal goods and instruments of terror
Knowledge Gap Addressed
Deterrence models use parameters that are largely un-validated
End-Users of This Research
DHS components who acquire and operate screening/scanning systems (e.g., CBP, TSA, CWMD)
Main Outcomes and Benefits End-User Desires
Allow end-users to make acquisition and operational decisions about screening/scanning methodologies and technologies with a better understanding of their deterrent effects

3. Project Overview Goal: Objectives:
Improve the ability to estimate the deterrent value of screening/scanning methodologies and technologies in combating the smuggling of illegal goods and/or instruments of terror
Objectives:
Categorize mathematical constructs for deterrence modeling and identify the deterrence parameters whose values must be estimated
Categorize smuggling populations that are expected to behave differently with respect to these parameters
Define ranges of values for deterrence parameters that appear consistent with documented cases of smuggling activity
Identify the assumptions, external to deterrence per se and testable by other means, on which these ranges of parameter values are based; test and refine parameter values

4. Accomplishments so far
Milestones
Accomplishments so far
Characterized deterrence-modeling constructs
Began developing extended models (to incorporate assumptions outside deterrence framework)
Began characterizing target smuggling populations (in terms of definitions of definitions of “success” and “failure,” risk tolerance, etc.)
Upcoming
Research documented cases
Identify disconnects vis a vis model predictions
Identify bounds for deterrence parameters

5. Deliverables at Project Completion
Technical Report
Summary Briefing
Journal Article

6. Performance Metrics Interim Risk Reduction: Go/No-Go Decision Points
Availability/sufficiency of documented cases vis-à-vis models and target populations
Existence or non-existence of mismatches
Key Activities and Metrics
Overall project success: the occurrence of at least one instance in which the verification method sharpens the estimate for a deterrence model parameter
Project Success and Transition
Use Case 1 (changes in screening concepts of operation): estimate impacts on mission success and operating efficiency
Use Case 2 (requirements for next-generation screening technologies): estimate impacts on performance thresholds for new equipment

7. Question and Answer
Contact Information
George Thompson:
Dennis Wagner: