1. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Coastal Habitats
2018 SOUTHEAST LAND AND COMMUNITY CONSERVATION CONFERENCE
Thursday, March 15, 2018
Jennifer Plunket, Stewardship Coordinator, North Inlet-Winyah Bay NERR
Hope Sutton, Stewardship Coordinator and Southern Sites Manager, North Carolina NERR

2. National Estuarine Research Reserves
The National Estuarine Research Reserve System is a network of 29 coastal sites designated to protect and study estuarine systems. The research reserves cover over 1.3 million acres of estuaries and are focused on stewardship, research, education and training. Established through the Coastal Zone Management Act, the reserves represent a partnership program between NOAA and the coastal states. NOAA provides funding and national guidance, and each site is managed on a daily basis by a lead state agency or university with input from local partners. “The reserve system was founded on the principle that long-term protection of estuaries provides a stable platform for research, education, and management
practices that will benefit the country’s estuaries and coasts.”

3. How do Reserves Protect Habitats?
Conservation, Land Acquisition
Restoration and Management
Research and Monitoring
Partnerships, Training
A goal in the NERRS Strategic plan is to, “Enhance and inspire stewardship, protection, and management of estuaries and their watersheds in coastal communities through place-based approaches.” Reserves maintain and enhance protection of reserve lands, waters, and facilities though land acquisition and working with partners to promote conservation. Many reserves are involved directly in land management practices, such as controlled burns, weed management, and habitat restoration. Reserves also serve as reference sites for habitat restoration, and some participate in restoration research. Reserve-related conservation and stewardship concepts and activities are integrated into curricula, practices, and training programs for Reserves and partners.

4. How are Reserve and Coastal Habitats Vulnerable to Climate Change?
Sea Level Rise
Hydrologic Change
Range Shifts
Human Response
Sea level rise will affect coastal habitats and is a primary concern for most Reserves. The top left picture shows in purple the current distribution of intertidal marsh habitat in Murrells Inlet, SC. The picture to the right is a model of the effects of just 1 foot of sea level rise. It shows a nearly complete conversion of intertidal marsh to open water. Current spring high tide give us a picture of what the future of our marshes may look like.
In addition to sea level rise impacts, climate change is having other impacts on coastal habitats. Native species range shifts, along with the spread of introduced species are changing the composition of habitats. Hydrologic changes, such a shift in the seasonality and intensity of precipitation, can impact species habitat requirements. For example precipitation during the breeding season had a negative effect on the population trends for saltmarsh sparrows by increasing the likely hood of nest failure due to flooding. 1 Storm event intensity is also expected to increase. In addition to direct damage from storms, the human response to storms can also have long-term impacts on coastal habitats.2
In order to understand how these changes may be impacting habitats, a tool was needed that would allow mangers to assess vulnerability by integrating both anthropogenic and environmental stressors on estuarine habitats.

5. Vulnerability Assessment Framework
Exposure:
Sensitivity:
Adaptive Capacity:
VULNERABILITY:
Complete loss of habitat Fully functional habitat
Potential Impact:
Heavy
precipitation events
Un-buffered stream edge
Erosion, water quality issues
Vegetated
buffer
The CCVATCH was built from an established vulnerability assessment framework. Exposure is the type, magnitude, and rate of climate change a species, habitat, or ecosystem is likely to experience. Sensitivity is the degree to which that system is or is likely to be affected by or respond to those changes. Projected climate changes and a species or habitat’s likely response to those changes determines the potential impact. Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of a species or system to accommodate or cope with climate change impacts with minimal disruption, and is both a factor of internal traits, such as the ability of a species to physically move in search of more favorable habitat conditions, and of external conditions, for example the existence of a structural barrier such as a seawalls that may limit the ability of that species or habitat to move. Vulnerability therefore is the degree of change that a species or system is projected to experience along with its likely response to those changes and the ability for the species or system to reduce or moderate those potential impacts. A vulnerability assessment can be though of an analysis of the range of potential outcomes, from a complete loss of a habitat to one that is likely to remain intact.

6. Exposure and Sensitivity
CO2
Temp.
Precip.
Sea Level
Extreme Climate
Climate Stressors
Direct Effects
N, P
Invasives
Nutrients
Sedimentation
Erosion
Contamination
Non-climate
Stressors
Current
Condition
DEFINED HABITAT AREA
For a given habitat or parcel of interest, the degree of exposure to changes in climate may be a direct stressors on the habitat. The CCVATCH considers five climate stressors- an increase in CO2, a change in precipitation regime, and increase in air and water temperatures, a change in sea level, and a change in the frequency or intensity of extreme climate events such as tropical storms, flash floods, or prolonged drought. Additionally, there are five non-climate stressors that are considered- invasive and nuisance species, nutrient loading, sedimentation, shoreline erosion, and biological and chemical contamination. These non-climate stressors were selected for inclusion based on the results of the NERRs sensitivity analysis and with input from potential end-users. The current condition of the habitat with respect to these stressors is also factored into the assessment.

7. Exposure and Sensitivity Interact
CO2
Temp.
Precip.
Sea Level
Extreme Climate
Climate Stressors
Non-climate
Stressors
N, P
Invasives
Nutrients
Sedimentation
Erosion
Contamination
Adaptive Capacity
In addition to the direct effects of climate and non-climate stressors on a habitat, climate will also interact with non-climate stressors. For example, a decrease in the number of frost dates may allow an invasive species to move north into an area that was previously unaffected. This may be compounded by an increase in precipitation if the invasive is a plant whose seeds are disbursed by flood. The CCVATCH is unique in that it explicitly addresses these potential interactions.
It is also important to consider the intrinsic and external factors that may increase a habitats resiliency to stressors, the adaptive capacity.

8. CCVATCH process: Expert Elicitation (People who know the place and research)
TNC biologist
Facilitator
Local land manger
FWS biologist
The Habitat Vulnerability Assessment is an evaluation process that brings scientists and decision makers together to create a shared understanding of how changes in climate and management practices will make a habitat more or less vulnerable in the future. Communities can use this knowledge to adapt their management, restoration, and conservation strategies to maintain the health of these habitats as environmental conditions change over time.
Land trust rep.
Site manger

9. CCVATCH process: Expert Elicitation (People who know the place and research)
Guidance Document
Facilitator
Site manger
Land trust rep.
Local land manger
TNC biologist
FWS biologist
The CCVATCH is a decision support tool that improves understanding of the specific vulnerabilities of a habitat to climate change in order to inform current and potential management actions. The CCVATCH process engages Reserve staff and local community end users through a facilitated collaborative process that elicits expert knowledge of coastal and estuarine habitats and incorporates local understanding of habitat condition and response. This group, the assessment team, uses the CCVATCH to evaluate the existing information on how climate changes will interact with invasive species, nutrient enrichment, sedimentation and erosion, and biological and chemical contamination to develop an overall vulnerability score for a defined habitat area. Support for the assessment process is provided by the CCVATCH Guidance Document that summarizes available current research findings, provides information resources, and outlines how other tools may be used to determine the level of exposure and sensitivity of a habitat to climate changes. Based on their understanding of potential impacts, the assessment team assigns a numerical score to represent the potential severity of impact of each climate/stressor interaction on the habitat. The scores range from -2, which would represent a positive affect, to 10 which would represent the complete loss of the habitat. The team also provides scores for an analysis of adaptive capacity elements. For more information on the specifics of scoring, please see the Guidance Document which can be found at ccvatch.com. The scores are entered into an excel spreadsheet, which calculates an overall vulnerability score for the habitat.
Vulnerability
Score
Excel Spreadsheet

10.  Add potential impacts
Assessment Questions
Web Tool
Is the spread/extent/vigor of an invasive species currently limited by temperature extremes (e.g. frost) that are predicted to change to be within the tolerance limits of the species? Research
Is the distribution of an invasive currently limited by a natural control (e.g. herbivory) that will be affected by a change in temperature? Research
Is an increase in frost-free days liable to alter host-pathogen or host-pest interactions and cause increased host plant stress or mortality? Research
Invasive Species
Sensitivity-exposure
Invasive Species
Nutrients
Sedimentation
Erosion
Contamination
Adaptive capacity
Vulnerability Score
Resources
Habitat 2
Habitat 1
Habitat 3
Habitat 4
Habitat 5
Current Conditions
Direct Climate Effects
Temperature
Precipitation
Sea level change
Storm frequency
Potential Climate impacts
 Add potential impacts
A web tool is currently under development which will facilitate the CCVATCH process. Users choose a sensitivity-exposure topic to begin with. Topics can be addressed in any order. Once the topic is chosen, the user then chooses which climate impact they would like to work on. They can also be done in any order. Not all topic-impact combinations need to be answered to get a final score. When the topic and impact are selected, the relevant assessment questions will come up. There will also be relevant references to a literature database which is being compiled. After scoring all relevant topics, users will be provided with a pdf report that documents the calculated score and also all of the potential climate impacts entered.
Assessment score -2 5 10
Certainty score 1 2 3 4

11. 2015 Pilot Project Outcomes
Components of Vulnerability
Primary
Dune
Scrub/
Shrub
Impounded
Marsh
Urban
Marsh
Restored
Marsh
Salt
marsh
Adaptive Capacity
Long
leaf
Flooded
Forest
Primary
Dune
The overall vulnerability is calculated as a function of the exposure-sensitivity and the adaptive capacity. A habitat may be at high risk from a particular stressor, but less vulnerable overall if it also has a strong adaptive capacity element. For example, a salt marsh that has a buffer of protected land across which it will be allowed to migrate as sea level rises could be considered to be less vulnerable than a marsh that is surrounded by urban development. The CCVATCH scoring process also asks assessors to assign a certainty score for each climate/stressor and adaptive capacity score. This score is based on the amount of available research and background information and expertise available during the scoring process. A score of 0 certainty can be assigned as a ‘red flag’ for scores that the assessment team would like to re-visit after further research. The size of the circle in this graph represents the overall degree of uncertainty for each of the pilot tests, with a larger circle showing a greater degree of uncertainty.
Urban
Marsh
Exposure-Sensitivity
South Carolina sites are in italics
Size of circle = 4(maximum certainty)- certainty score

12. Applications Southeastern Intertidal Marshes
Currituck Banks
Question: Differences in projected SLR, geology, stressors, current condition
Habitat Definition: Emergent salt-marsh, may be some site specific variation
Application: Broader management considerations, direction of research efforts, shared learning for future collaboration
Rachel Carson
Masonboro Island
The North Inlet-Winyah Bay and North Carolina National Estuarine Research Reserves have applied this process as a part of this project funded by the National Estuarine Research Reserves Science Collaborative. The results from the four sites being studied in North Carolina and the Murrells Inlet and North Inlet studies will provide a regional picture of the potential vulnerabilities of southeastern tidal marshes. This information can lead to more targeted and effective habitat conservation projects that account for future environmental conditions.
Zeke’s Island
North Inlet

13. Salt Marsh Comparison in S.C., 2017
North Inlet and Murrells Inlet are both ocean dominated estuaries with similar intertidal marsh habitat. However, North Inlet is surrounded by a small forested watershed that has little development, while extensive development surrounds Murrells Inlet, where impacts to the waterways include dredging, filling and the construction of quary stone jetties at the mouth of the inlet in the late 1970’s. Both site assessments resulted in high vulnerability scores, but for different reasons. While direct sea level was of highest concern for both marshes, the effects of storms, contamination, and erosion were of greater concern for the more developed Murrells Inlet marsh.

14. Salt Marsh Comparison in N.C., 2018
The Masonboro Island Reserve (MI) and the Zeke’s Island Reserve (ZI) have both been impacted by development in the watershed; however, the nature of these impacts differs. The MI is directly affected by moderate residential development and shows some signs of the stormwater runoff impacts associated with rising impervious surface coverage and occasional wastewater pipe failures. The ZI is located downstream of significant industrial development in a watershed that includes a large number of animal agriculture sites as well as approximately 20% of the state’s human population. The effects of storms, both direct and combined with stressors, were considered to be of great concern at ZI.