1. Independent Inquiry Farming 1.5
A positive pathway for farming and food production
Building consensus -Nourish Scotland

2. Climate Change- THE PRIORITY of our age?
Sustainable use of resources ; biodiversity
Reduction of Inequality
Available and affordable food
CLIMATE CHANGE -1.5

3. Independent Inquiry Farming 1.5 terms of reference
FOCUS – CLIMATE CHANGE
A POSITIVE PATHWAY FOR FARMING and FOOD PRODUCTION to Zero Carbon 2045
Holistic approach
BIODIVERSITY
LANDSCAPE
COMMUNITIES
RURAL ECONOMY
TO BUILD CONSENSUS -Science, Economics, Environmental NGOs, Farming/Land Managers, Nourish

4. Affordable food and biodiversity in 2045?
Available food- carbon efficiency
Bio-diversity – carbon efficiency
Balmford and Garnsworthy – study of low and high intensity systems
Dr Cristina Banks-Leite- study Atlantic forest, Brazil -2017
Cereals, rice, dairy – Europe, Asia and America
Minimum forest cover to maintain bio-diversity 30%
High intensity/high yields lower carbon cost- increased output
Min of Environment accept target for restoration and planning [12mha]
Focus on smart systems
Agri holdings – 30% wild land
NOT BUSINESS as USUAL- high yield, bio and economic efficiency create space for wilderness
Agri holdings – low carbon beef brand being developed
Organic bodies believe low intensity approach can support biodiversity
Brazil target 43% cut in Emissions 2030 but – 46% emissions due deforest 2017
U of Camb, Nottingham Uni,
Imp College London

5. UK CCC Report 2019 – baseline of investigation
SCOTLAND Zero carbon 2045
UK Zero carbon 2050, Wales 95% 2050
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT – REDUCE EMMISSIONS
AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS Increase efficiencies and intensity - RELEASE LAND
LAND USE CHANGE - INCREASE SEQUESTRATION trees, wetlands, hedges, agroforestry ENERGY – SRC, SRF, Misc
DIETARY CHANGE [red meat and dairy]- reduce livestock
Dietary change freeing up land – FORESTRY & ENERGY CROPS
DELIVER PARIS AGREEMENT

6. Rothamsted CE&H, Land use scenario 2050 for CCC
Maintain output
Business as Usual
Multifunctional LU
Technology push
N efficiency [N20]
No change
20%
30%
Enteric emissions
No change emissions up
-5%
-10%
Ruminant number
Rise
-20% R Meat/dairy herd down
-50% R meat/dairy herd down
Diet change
Existing trends
-20% RM/dairy
-50% RM/dairy synthetic meats
Energy crops
low
M-245, SRC-227K SRF- 227K
M-420, SRC-390K, SRF-390K
Forestry –plant rates to 2100
31,000ha [Sco 15]
50,000ha [Sco 24] 32% tree cover
Agri output
+20%
+20-45%
Carbon impact
+40%
-21%
-61%

7. RO Ireland climate action menu – extract [forestry 7000ha/yr], IFJ

8. Performance of N fertilizer ROI- protected urea Johnstown trial, IFJ

9. Independent Inquiry; Farming 1.5 Change – what producers need?
FAIR CARBON ACCOUNTING STANDARDS
SUITE OF LOW CARBON MANAGEMENT OPTIONS [case studies]
CLEAR ACHIEVABLE TARGETS-[ joined up regulation/support/market ]
OPEN DOOR FOR AGRICULTURAL BUSINESSES TO ADOPT DIVERSE CARBON STRATEGIES TO SUPPORT ACTIVITY [renew e, sequestration]
SUPPORT FOR INVESTMENT IN LOW CARBON PRODUCTION SYSTEMS AND FARM WASTE MANAGEMENT
SUPPORT FOR RESEARCH THAT DEVELOPS BIOLOGICAL EFFICIENCIES, CARBON CAPTURE and SEQUESTRATION
A FUTURE ; A VIABLE MARKET FOR LOW CARBON FOODS – PROTECTION FROM CONVENTIONAL PRODUCTION [IMPORTS] ?

10. Independent Inquiry ; Farming 1.5 facilitated by Nourish Scotland
Co Chair M Robinson CEO, RSGS
Co Chair N Miller
Co Sponsor NFU Scotland
REPORT Target date – September 2020
THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST and TIME