1. Open access is possible!
Staging the Transition from Subscriptions to Open Access
European Commission Workshop: Alternative Open Access Publishing Models
Brussels, 12 October 2015

2. Open access – current status
12 years after the
Berlin Declaration:
OA  13% of total publication output
OA  4% of total publication budget
OA Gold share in peer-reviewed scientific journals (analysis WoS)
10%
90%
2003
2014
2020
OA Share
Year
Swift & concerted initiative for a trans-formation to OA (budget-neutral, maintaining traditional partnerships with publishers, …)
Inactivity & delayed transformation (increased costs & danger of aberration, collapse before construction/conversion …)
We need a catalyst for the
open access transformation

3. Overcoming the subscription system:
Global level view
Overcoming the subscription system:
transformation of the subscription budget
7.6 bn EUR
Spend
Global
subscription market
7.6 bn EUR p.a.
Spend
Potential for new services
≥ 3.6 bn Eur p.a.
Global
Open Access market ≤ 4 bn EUR p.a.
Subscription market 10%
Open Access market share:
13% article; 4% costs

4. Disrupting the subscription journal’s business model…
… for the necessary large-scale transformation to open access Published 28 April 2015

5. …together with data publication
Data analyses by Margit Palzenberger / RIO, please cite:
Palzenberger, M. (2015). Number of Scholarly Articles per Country.

6. Enough money already in the system
Global subscription spending
7.6 billion Euro
Annually published articles
(according to Web of Science)
1.5 million
Current expense per article
~ 5,000 Euro

7. APC levels, current evidence
German OpenAPC Initiative at

8. APC levels, current evidence
“In total, 4,345,486 EUR for 3,515 articles were paid by the participating universities. Average fee is 1, EUR
and the median 1,201 EUR.”
German OpenAPC Initiative, September 2015 at

9. APC levels, current evidence
SCOAP³ < 1,100 EUR
APC evidence published by Wellcome Trust and Austrian Science Fund (FWF)
Cap applied by German Research Foundation for APC funds = 2,000 EUR

10. Scenario of transformation based on current operating numbers per year
Global view
Subscription market today
Global market volume 7.6 bn EUR
1.5 M research papers (WoS); up to ~ 2 M overall
5,000 EUR/ article WoS;
3,800 EUR/ article overall
Global basis volume 4 bn EUR
2 M research papers
2,000 EUR/article
After an OA transformation

11. Publication volume of selected European countries
Total publication volume
Articles and reviews in Web of Science
Germany
Great Britain
France
The dark part of the columns marks the share of articles with a corresponding author from this country (≤ 70%).
120
100 80 60 40
Number of articles p.a. (in K) 20
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year of the publication

12. Output volume in Great Britain
2013 calculation span
73,292 papers x 2,000 € =
~ 146.5m €
73,292 papers x 1,300 € =
~ 95.3m €
76%
75%
74%
73%
71%
70%
69%
68%
67%
66%
Share of publications with a corresponding author from GB
Data according to Palzenberger, M. (2015). Number of Scholarly Articles per Country.

13. Output volume in the Netherlands
2013 calculation span
24,043 papers x 2,000 € =
~ 48.1m €
24,043 papers x 1,300 € =
~ 31.3m €
71%
70%
69%
67%
66%
64%
63%
Share of publications with a corresponding author from the Netherlands
Data according to Palzenberger, M. (2015). Number of Scholarly Articles per Country.

14. Output volume in Germany
2013 calculation span
70,243 papers x 2,000 € =
~ 140.5m €
70,243 papers x 1,300 € =
~ 91.3m €
75%
74%
73%
72%
71%
70%
69%
68%
Share of publications with a corresponding author from Germany
Data according to Palzenberger, M. (2015). Number of Scholarly Articles per Country.

15. Close-up country view: share of major publishers in Germany 2013
Publications
Library expenses
Share of overall publications
Share of publications with
corresponding author
Typical shares of journal expenses
N = 103,000 journal publications
Elsevier
(14,000)
Elsevier
(21,000)
Wiley
(9,000)
Elsevier
no cost
Wiley
(13,000)
Springer
(10,000)
Springer
Wiley
Springer
(13,000)

16. Institutional level – Max Planck “formula”
10,000 research articles per year
Total paper output
According to Web of Science data, articles and article reviews
Maximum of 6,000 (60%)
APC relevant share
(between 40-60% corresponding author papers) This pattern is persistent across the various OA publishers and stable over time
Current average APC of ~ 1,300 EUR,
Average APC level monitored
based on 1,046 APC invoices with a total spend (including taxes) of some 1.3 EUR million [as of April 2015]
6,000 x average APC + safety margin ≤ €12 million
Expected total expenditure
These anticipated costs are very comfortably within our current spending levels
The Max Planck Society as a heavily output-oriented research organization is able and committed to make the transformation.

17. The lesson is clear:
A large-scale OA transformation seems to be possible without financial risks
Subscriptions must be stopped and reinvested in open access business models

18. Detach and focus on the underlying business model of scientific journal publishing
Functions and enabling elements of the publishing system
POTENTIAL FUTURE SCENARIOS
Alternative metrics
Open reference and citation database
CONCEPT IN PROGRESS AND UNDER (CONSTANT) DEBATES
New tools and services
Etc. ∞ ingenuity
Brand value
Usage and impact indicators
CORE FUNCTIONS
Career considerations
Certification
Dissemination
Quality indicators
Archival record (?)
Research evaluation
Registration
Underlying business model of the publishing system
Read-access cash flow
Toll-access system
Inherently restricted in use
Publication service based cash flow
Open access system
Inherently open in use and re-use
The cash flow can be changed without impacting the functions of publishing

19. Road to transition Start working on transition scenarios:
Capture publication data on country and institutional levels
Capture subscription spent data on country and institutional levels
Link current costs with publications, work on offsetting scenarios on publisher levels, institutional levels, country levels
Focus on STM market sector
Work on price transparency: publish APC data

20. Road to transition
Work on efficient infrastructure, help build up scalable processes for APC transactions

21. Subscription payments mus be stopped Global concerted action needed
Staging the Open Access Transformation of Subscription Journals
Invitation of selected research institutions from around the world (North America – Europe – Asia)
Day 1 : Testing the ground whether or not the goal of a large-scale journal transformation is shared internationally and a readiness exists to act jointly
Day 2: Developing and adopting a common action plan
8-9 December 2015

22. Thank you for your attention!
Invitation of selected research institutions from around the world (North America – Europe – Asia)
Day 1 : Testing the ground whether or not the goal of a large-scale journal transformation is shared internationally and a readiness exists to act jointly
Day 2: Developing and adopting a common action plan
Ralf Schimmer