1. Risk Risk is the product of How to reduce risk?
Probability that something will go wrong
And
Severity of its consequences
How to reduce risk?
Reduce probability that something will go wrong
Reduce severity of consequences

2. Technical Risk Management TRM
TRM 4-step Methodology
Risk Identification
Risk Assessment
Risk Mitigation
Risk Monitoring

3. Risk Identification Risk Identification is best done as a group
Identify the desired outcome
Use brainstorming methods to identify risks
Continue until no more risks are identified

4. Risk Assessment Risk Assessment
What are the odds of the risk event occurring
Rare
Unlikely
Possible
Likely
Frequent

5. Risk Assessment Risk Assessment
What are the consequences of the risk event
Catastrophic
Severe
Marginal (not severe but significant enough)
Negligible
In design projects, the consequences are usually in terms of time, budget, and product meeting PDS targets.

6. Risk Scoring Matrix Frequent Likely Possible Unlikely Rare
Catastrophic E H M
Severe L
Marginal
Negligible

7. Risk Assessment Levels of Risk Extreme – Do not accept level of risk
High – Do not accept level of risk
Medium – Mitigate if resources allow
Low - Accept

8. Risk Mitigation Plan Reducing the probability of failure
More knowledge  Less Risk
More accurate assessment
Analysis
Simulation
Experimentation
Published studies, statistical data
Design changes

9. Risk Mitigation Plan Reducing consequences of events
More accurate assessment of consequences
Analysis
Simulation
Experimentation
Published studies
Design Changes

10. Example Assessment: Mitigation OR
Bolt failure for a fuel tank is initially a probable event and its consequences are catastrophic.
Mitigation
Detailed analysis shows it is extremely unlikely.
Further investigation shows consequences are not as severe as initially perceived. OR
Select higher strength or larger bolts
Add features to contain damage in case of failure

11. Example Risk Magnets stuck to the disk may fly off
Probability: High
Consequences: Severe injury or death
Risk Assessment: Extreme

12. Example Mitigation (Reducing odds of the event)
More accurate assessment of forces and probability of magnets flying off at maximum 1000 rpm
Conclusions: Very unlikely
Design Changes
Add screws or other retaining parts
Use epoxy
Add speed sensors and automatic cut off

13. Example Mitigation (Reducing consequences)
More accurate assessment of consequences
Remains catastrophic
Reducing consequences of the event
Add an enclosure
Operate remotely