1. Welfare State and Finances Stockholm Social Forum, 20 October 2017
Eskil Wadensjö Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI), Stockholm University

2. Sweden: Background Ageing population as in other developed countries
Fertility lower than needed to have a stable population in the long run without immigration
People are living longer – many old old (EU conference next week on the situation of the old old)
Problems for the financing of the welfare state if the share of the population being employed is declining
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3. Fertility Higher than in most other European countries (1.9 in 2016)
How to enhance fertility
Day care organized by the municipalities
Old age care organized by the municipalities
Equality policy
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4. How to increase the share of the population being employed and the number of hours worked
Different Groups
Young people
Older people
Women
Migrants
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5. The young people The problems:
High NEET rate (the group not in employment, education or training)
Many years of study (often combined with part-time work) before entering the labour market
Measures
More vocational education
Incentives to shorten the time to exam (incentives)
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6. Older people Pension system and related systems
Increasing the mandatory retirement age (now 67)
Defined contribution system
Higher lowest age for taking out a pension (61 at present)
More difficult to get an early/disability pension
Work environment reforms
Facilitating self-employment
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7. Women
High employment rates compared to in other countries but still lower than that for men
Women more often than men work part-time
Measures: care arranged by the public sector; changes of social customs
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8. Migrants
Sweden has been a country with net immigration every year since 1930 with the exception of one year (1971)
Different forms of migration
Labour migration
Students
Family-related migration (”marriage migration”)
Refugees
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9. Labour migration Increases the share of the population employed
The Nordic labour market (1954)
The EU labour market (1994/95); expansion of EU 2004, 2007, 2013
Making labour migration from other countries easier (from December 2008)
Short run/long run effects
Circular migration/ return migration
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10. Refugee migration A long history (some examples)
WW2 (Nordic countries, Estonia)
Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia
Iran, Iraq
Bosnia
Afghanistan, Somalia, Syria
Short run – long run effects – policy dependence
Education in Swedish
Validation
Education
Labour market policy
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11. Taxation effects on work incentives
Labour supply effects (substitution effects; income effects)
The shadow economy (tax avoidance )
Do-it-your-self instead of market work
Danish experiences
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12. Conclusion
A welfare state with some problems regarding financing in the long run but are measures available making it possible to solve the problems
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