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Community Flood Response System for Hays County

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Presentation on theme: "Community Flood Response System for Hays County"— Presentation transcript:

1 Community Flood Response System for Hays County
David R. Maidment and Harry R. Evans Center for Research in Water Resources University of Texas at Austin Discussion with Hays County Emergency Response officials San Marcos TX, 26 Aug 2015 Acknowledgements: Tomas Rodriguez, City of Austin

2 The Opportunity New National Water Center established on the Tuscaloosa campus of University of Alabama by the National Weather Service and federal agency partners Has a mission to assess hydrology in a new way at the continental scale for the United States

3 NWS River Forecast Centers (RFCs)
Prepare river and flood forecasts using models based on average basin characteristics Provide forecast guidance to Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) Issue daily stage and streamflow forecasts, rainfall and drought data and information, and flash flood guidance Work with water managers and other Federal Agencies RFC Summary 6000 sub-basins in continental US 3

4 FY15 Centralized Water Forecasting
National Water Center TRANSITION INTO METHODS FY15 PROJECT HAS FOUR CORE COMPONENTS RFC archive Model evaluation service Modeling testbed Centralized modeling demonstration FY15 Centralized Water Forecasting Centralized Data Archive – all RFC data Modeling Evaluation Service RFC and NWC modeling and forecasts Modeling Testbed – new NWC capabilities Centralized Water Forecasting Demonstration

5 Goal of the Experiment Close the gap between National Flood Forecasting and Local Emergency Response Demonstrate forecasting of flood impacts at “stream and street level” National Local Weather and Hydrology National Weather Service and federal agencies National Water Center River Flooding and Emergency Response Local, State and Regional Agencies Citizens

6 NFIE Conceptual Framework
NFIE-Geo: National geospatial framework for hydrology NFIE-Response: Community Flood Response System NFIE-Hydro: National high spatial resolution hydrologic forecasting NFIE-River: River channel information and real-time flood inundation mapping NFIE-Services: Web services for flood information

7 2.7 million reach catchments in US
NHDPlus Version 2.1 Geospatial foundation for a national water data infrastructure NHDPlus 2.7 million reach catchments in US average area 3 km2 reach length 2 km Uniquely labelled National Elevation Dataset Watershed Boundary Dataset National Hydrography Dataset National Land Cover Dataset

8 Flood Information for Fritz Hughes Park Rd
National Hydrography Dataset Plus catchment for Bear Creek (area = 5.71 km2) Low water crossing at 3400 Fritz Hughes Park Rd

9 NFIE-Hydro Forecasting Model
Computed for the continental US in 10 minutes at Texas Advanced Computing Center Weather model and forecasts (HRRR) Land-Atmosphere Model (NOAH-MP) Precipitation Weather Probabilistic flood forecasts Catchment-level forecasts Streamflow Runoff RAPID flow routing (for continental US)

10 Next Step: National Water Prediction Model Configurations
WRF-Hydro IOC Configurations – May 2016 Analysis & Assimilation Short-Range ‘Flood Prediction’ Medium Range ‘Flow Prediction’ Long Range ‘Water Resources’ Cycling Frequency Hourly 3-Hourly Daily ~Daily (x16) Forecast Duration - 3 hrs 0-2 days 0-10 days 0-30 days Spatial Discretization & Routing 1km/250m/NHDPlus Reach 1km/250m/NHDPlus Reach 1km/250m/NHDPlus Reach 1 km/catchment /NHDPlus Reach Meteorological Forcing MRMS blend/ HRRR-NAM bkgnd. Downscaled HRRR /RAP/NAM blend Short-range + Downscaled GFS Downscaled & bias-corrected CFS

11 Current and NFIE Forecast Systems
Current: 6600 basins and 3600 forecast points Blanco River at Wimberley Two basins and one forecast point Forecast Basin ~ 400 Square Miles Reach Catchment ~ 1 Square Mile becomes NFIE: 2.7 million stream reaches and catchments 130 Catchments and Flowlines uniquely labelled A national flow network

12 Linear Referencing on Flowlines
Using measures, the flow can be estimated at any point along the line Stream Gage at RR 12 is at Measure on Flowline Long. Lat. Measure Measure is the % distance upstream from most downstream point on line

13 Improvements in Flood Response Planning
GIS database and flood discharge forecasts for 2.67 million stream reaches in continental US from National Water Center Federal Conversion to water level forecasts and inundation maps for 102,000 reaches in Texas using 10m terrain data. Address points for flood emergency response planning in each reach State Flood impact on transportation system Flood response planning for stream reaches and critical infrastructure. Inundation mapping using LIDAR terrain data, if available. Local Flood response portal for citizens (ATXFlood) Automated flood warnings from cell-phone towers to phones in flood risk zones Citizen

14 NFIE-Geo for Texas NHDPlus reach catchment
Uniquely labeled across nation 102,000 NHDPlus reach catchments for Texas Average area 7.1 km2 Average reach length 3 km

15 NFIE-Geo for Hays County
264 Forecast Reaches within County Boundary

16 264 Forecast Reaches in Hays County

17 Memorial Day Weekend Precipitation
Total Precip. (inches)

18 Flow in Blanco River at Wimberley
40 ft wall of water overwhelmed the gage

19 How can this happen? Drought to Deluge!
Lake Travis near Austin, Texas, has been in drought for the last four years Reservoir storage doubled in 10 days How can this happen?

20

21

22 Storm Rainfall during Memorial Day Weekend
Sunday, May 24, 6 AM Sunday, May 24, 6 PM Saturday, May 23, Midnight Saturday, May 23, 6 PM Saturday, May 23, 6 AM Saturday, May 23, noon Sunday, May 24, Midnight Where are the corresponding flood maps on the ground? Sunday, May 24, noon

23 National Flood Hazard Layer in Texas (~ 120 counties)

24 Real-Time Flood Inundation Mapping (USGS/NWS)

25 Elevation-indexed flood mapping
Center Points of Reaches Hays County Map sequence for each point

26 Flood warnings from cell-phone towers
Send warning Detect phone in flood zone Cell Phone Tower Flood Risk Zone

27 National Flood Interoperability Experiment (NFIE) Conceptual Framework
NFIE-Services: Web services for flood information NFIE-Geo: National geospatial framework for hydrology NFIE-Hydro: National high spatial resolution hydrologic forecasting NFIE-River: River channel information and real-time flood inundation mapping NFIE-Response: Community Flood Response System

28 Community Flood Response Map Book
Source: Tomas Rodriguez, City of Austin

29

30

31 Situational Awareness For Everyone (SAFE)
Source: Jared Allen, NWS Austin-San Antonio Weather Forecast Office Flood SAFE Viewer: 

32 SAFE Map for Blanco River near Wimberley, Tx
Source: Jared Allen, NWS Austin-San Antonio Weather Forecast Office Blanco River Proof-of-concept Map:

33 Flood Emergency Response
Emergency Responders Public Incident Response Warnings Current and forecast storm rainfall Creates Flood Response Maps Current and forecast flood conditions Impact on homes, critical infrastructure, and transportation routes Public notification and warnings Current and anticipated road closures Real-time and forecast flood maps Evacuation routes Action Planning Wide Area Flood Plan Public Education Static flood maps Number of flooded homes, critical infrastructure and transportation routes for different risk conditions Pre-planning of flood response mobilization Location based risk Evacuation routes Putting together a “go bag” for evacuation Flood hazard prevention methods

34 Flood Response: 4 Critical Functions
Pre-planning Public Education Real-Time Flood Maps Warnings Planning Action

35 Flood Response: 4 Critical Functions
Pre-planning Public Education Real-Time Flood Maps Warnings Planning Action

36 Pre-Planning Why: enhance disaster response
What: prepare for these types of floods: Flash flood – short duration pulse; high risk, high mortality Flat-water flood – chronic event; lower velocity, longer duration Who: federal/state + local jurisdiction

37 Pre-Planning Identify, map & prioritize high risk areas
Critical infrastructure Key resources Vulnerable population First-responder access routes Public evacuation routes

38 Pre-Planning Outputs Blocked roads
Flood response maps Roads, bridges, address points, low-water crossings (where available) First-responder access & public evacuation routes Go / no-go decision support data Blocked roads Reflex time (to evacuate a risk area)

39 Flood Response: 4 Critical Functions
Planning Pre-planning Public Education Real-Time Flood Maps Warnings Action

40 Public Education Why: more public awareness & readiness results in more effective flood response Plus much less costly than flood response!!! What: professional materials & campaigns Educate on go / no-go decision process Warning message content (including disabilities, language barriers) Ready, Set, Go (public guidelines for action)

41 Flood Response: 4 Critical Functions
Planning Pre-planning Public Education Real-Time Flood Maps Warnings Action

42 Real-Time Flood Response Maps
Pushed to emergency managers, and to first responders on maps and mobile devices Real time precipitation data Expected rise and flood level Address points affected Low-water crossings Threats to critical infrastructure & key resources Utilities, communications, roads Hospitals, schools, public safety, food & fuel

43 Flood Response: 4 Critical Functions
Planning Pre-planning Public Education Real-Time Flood Maps Warnings Action

44 Public Warnings Explanatory enough to not be ignored
Warnings must convey a credible threat, and be actionable Explanatory enough to not be ignored Go / no-go directions Flood maps available to the public Complement Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) Must consider social media Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, etc. Cell phone alert in flood zone News media: need consistent messaging Monitor social media via hotspot mapping

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