1. Demographic Transition
AOHS
Global Health
Unit 1, Lesson 4
Demographic Transition
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2. Demography is the statistical study of human populations
Demography uses statistics about:
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Population Size
Population Density
What other statistics do you think professionals who study demography work with?

3. Demographic transition tracks how the population of a country changes over time
Stages of Demographic Transition
In Stage 1, what might cause the mortality rate to decrease?

4. Demographic Transition Stage 1: Population is Stable
At first, birth and death rates are both high.
"DTM Pyramids" by Dtm_pyramids.png: User:SuzanneKnderivative work: NikNaks93 (talk) - Dtm_pyramids.png. Licensed under Public Domain via Commons -

5. Demographic Transition Stage 2: Mortality Rates Decrease
The country’s economy develops.
Hygiene and nutrition improve.
Infectious disease decreases.
"DTM Pyramids" by Dtm_pyramids.png: User:SuzanneKnderivative work: NikNaks93 (talk) - Dtm_pyramids.png. Licensed under Public Domain via Commons -

6. Demographic Transition Stage 3: Birth Rates Decrease
Birth rates slow due to:
Increases in wages and urbanization
Increased value of education of both women and children
Population growth beginning to level off

7. Demographic Transition Stage 4: Population Growth Levels Off
Birth rates begin to decline.
Births and deaths become more equal.
The percentage of the population that is older increases.

8. A population pyramid can provide a visual for demographic transition
Image from:
This graph is wide at the bottom and narrow at the top. What does that tell you about the population of this country?

9. This is a population pyramid for a country in Stage 1
The pyramid shows a country with a high birth rate. What does it show about the death rate?

10. This is a population pyramid for a country in Stage 2
If people in Ecuador begin to live longer, how will the shape of the graph change?

11. This is a population pyramid for a country in Stage 3
If Iceland’s birth rate declined further, how would that affect the shape of the graph?

12. This is a population pyramid for a country in Stage 4

13. Population pyramids can also be used to make predictions about future populations
This pyramid predicts what Japan’s population will look like in 2050.
Can you see any potential problems the country might face if its population age distribution looks like this?

14. The United States is still going through some demographic transition
What changes do you see over the last 30 years? In the next 30 years?

15. Demographic transition can help us predict how a country’s health will change due to economic changes
Stage 1: Population is fairly stable
Stage 2: Decreasing mortality rate
Stage 3: Decreasing birth rate
Stage 4: Population growth levels off and may contract
How do you think global health professionals use this theory or statistical model to help them in their work?