1. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Integrated Assessment and IPCC: Links between climate change and sub-global environmental issues presentation at Task Force Integrated Assessment Modelling, Brussels, May 2001
Rob Swart
Head TSU IPCC Working Group III
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

2. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
IPCC was established in 1988 as an intergovernmental, integrated assessment process by UNEP and WMO
Scientists in interdisciplinary writing teams are responsible for the substance of the assessments
Governments determine the report outline, they review the 2nd draft, and approve the Summary for Policymakers line by line
Work from 3 Working Groups (climate system, impacts/ adapta-tion, mitigation) is integrated in a Synthesis Report ( 5 year cycle)
Main client: UNFCCC/SBSTA
More information:
The IPCC Process
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

3. Climate change and other environmental issues in IPCC
The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) includes scenarios for SO2, NOx, VOCs, CO in addition to all GHGs
The Third Assessment Report evaluates the climatic changes (WG1) and impacts (WG2) associated with these scenarios
The Third Assessment Report (WG3) notes that integration of climate change policies with other socio-economic and environmental policies (“co-benefits”) can make policies more effective
A WRI/RFF/OECD/IPCC Workhop on Ancillary Benefits was organized in 2000; proceedings available from OECD
A Special Report on Climate Change and Sustainable Development has been proposed which would explicitly address synergies and trade-offs between the various issues
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

4. Atmospheric Concentrations Socio-Economic Development Paths
Figure 1.1a: An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Climate Change
Human &
Natural Systems
Climate System
Climate change impacts
Floods and droughts
Biodiversity
Animal and plant health
Temperature rise
Sea level rise
Precipitation change
Feedbacks
Interactions
Non-climate change stresses
Enhanced greenhouse effect
Environmental impacts
Air pollution
Atmospheric Concentrations
Socio-Economic Development Paths
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide
Aerosols
Anthropogenic emissions
Main drivers are population, energy,economic growth, technology and land use

6. Special Report on Emission Scenarios
Revision of 1992 reference scenarios (IS92)
Based on 1994 IPCC evaluation
IPCC 1996 request for new reference scenarios, no additional climate initiatives
Based on literature review, development of storylines, quantification with 6 models, open process, and 2 IPCC reviews
Published 2000
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

7. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
The SRES worlds
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

8. GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS FOR 6 SCENARIO GROUPS
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

9. GLOBAL ENERGY CO2 SCENARIOS AND DATABASE
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

13. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
The IPCC WG III TAR in one view
Technologies are available today to keep climate change impacts limited in the long term and stop the growth of global GHG emissions in the short term
The costs of implementing the Kyoto Protocol can be kept low, provided implementation is done efficiently and long-term costs can be kept relatively low if optimum timing is chosen
The real problem of controlling emissions is to overcome the many political, economic, social and behavioural barriers to implementing mitigation options
There is a strong link between sustainable development and climate change mitigation: look for synergies and avoid trade-offs
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

14. Findings SRES/TAR related to acidifying compounds and ozone precursors
In most SRES scenarios, after an initial increase, sulfur emissions are assumed to decrease worldwide after a few decades, due to concerted policy action
This is one of the main reasons that in the TAR the projected climate effects (temperature, sea level) exceed those in earlier IPCC reports
GHG mitigation can have very important ancillary benefits for regional and local air pollution, and vice versa
More detailed analysis at the regional level is needed, especially for future emissions of NOx and other ozone precursors, and options for abatement synergy
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

15. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Excerpts from SPM IPCC WG3
“Some mitigation actions may yield extensive benefits in areas outside of climate change: for example, they may reduce health problems; increase employment; reduce negative environmental impacts (like air pollution); protect and enhance forests, soils and watersheds; reduce those subsidies and taxes which enhance greenhouse gas emissions; and induce technological change and diffusion, contributing to wider goals of sustainable development. Similarly, development paths that meet sustainable development objectives may result in lower levels of greenhouse gas emissions.”
“The effectiveness of climate change mitigation can be enhanced when climate policies are integrated with the non-climate objectives of national and sectorial policy development and be turned into broad transition strategies to achieve the long-term social and technological changes required by both sustainable development and climate change mitigation. Just as climate policies can yield ancillary benefits that improve well being, non-climate policies may produce climate benefits.”
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)