1. Role of livestock in the regional economy
Impact of drought in the IGAD region
Ricarda Mondry
FAO Sub- Regional Office for Eastern Africa (SFE)
Ministerial Roundtable on Index Based Livestock Insurance in the IGAD region

2. Role of livestock sector in the IGAD region
supplies very substantial numbers of livestock to domestic, regional and international markets and therefore, makes crucial – but often undervalued – contributions to national and regional economies (traction, fertilizer, processing, marketing)
livestock provides economic stability to the farm or household, acting as a cash buffer (small livestock) and as capital reserve (large animals)
livestock products make an important contribution to food security: counteract stunting and prevailing micronutrient deficiency
when the agricultural sector performs well, the entire economy performs well, with the converse equally true

3. % of population for which livestock is main source of livelihood
Contribution to GDP and % of population for which livestock is main source of livelihood
camel
cattle
goat
sheep
pig
chicken
mio TLU
livestock GDP /total GDP
% of population for which livestock is main source of livelihood
Djibouti
0.1
0.3
0.5 nn 1 3%
33%
Eritrea
0.4
2.1
18.0
2.4
1.4 6
10%
35%
Ethiopia
1.2
61.0
31.0
32.0
0.0
59.5 79
17%
53%
Kenya
3.3
18.3
24.7
18.8
0.6
48.1 38
14%
63%
Somalia
7.2
4.8
11.5
11.0
3.6 24
54%
65%
South Sudan
11.8
13.6
17.8
15.0 27
25%
62%
Sudan
4.9
30.7
31.4
40.5
48.3 71
23%
59%
Uganda
15.4
15.7
2.6
35.7 15 8%
58%
261
plus 8-10% processing marketing fertilizer, traction

4. Importance of livestock sector in IGAD region
Ethiopia has the largest and Sudan the second largest number of livestock in Africa
South Sudan’s livestock population is estimated to have an asset value of 2.2 billion dollars — the highest per capita holding in Africa
Kenya has one of the largest and most sophisticated dairy industry in Africa with over 5 Billion l of milk produced per year

5. Opportunities for the livestock sector
due to population grow, urbanization and increasing income, demand in livestock products will increase continuously in the IGAD region
recommended consumption
30kg meat, 90kg dairy, 15kg eggs per person per year
in most IGAD countries consumption is around 1/3 of these quantities
this is an opportunity to increase incomes of rural poor population not to miss
crop production is much more at risk during drought than livestock production

6. Challenges for the livestock sector
highest risk is through drought
70 percent of the IGAD region is made up of ASALs – 30% of population
high degree of variability in rainfall patterns in terms of both space and time
prone to recurrent droughts and dry spells, making it one of the most vulnerable regions on the African continent for climatic variations
contributes to food insecurity, famine and poverty; can fuel social, economic and political tensions that can cause conflicts and wide poverty
Institutional: unclear/uncertain land tenure to secure critical dry season grazing areas and water sources often lost to permanent settlers, commercial agriculture, irrigation projects, mines, game reserves
evidence of climate change in the IGAD region is unmistakable: temperatures have risen, rainfall has become irregular and unpredictable, and increase in the incidence of extreme weather events

7. Monthly forage condition in Kenya’s ASALS from 1996 to 2017

8. Impact of draught on the individual household
lack of drinking water, poor pasture conditions and increased prices of feed for livestock
pastoralists move larger distances, loss of energy for animals, further decreases their body condition, can lead to conflict with permanent settler and further loss of animals
increased susceptibility to diseases
lower productivity of animals, death of animals, long term reduced reproductivity, stunting of calves leading later to less productive animals,
hasty uncoordinated selling or slaughtering of animals causes an initial decrease in meat prices due to overabundance of meat
reduced TOT: as livestock prices decrease, and maize prices increase, TOT become less beneficial for livestock keepers, influencing their ability to purchase essential foods
reduced food security of household and poverty
foregone value of production until re-stocked livestock becomes fully productive again
later, in urban households, this is followed by an increase in meat prices as there are less animals and the price to feed and water the animals has increased

9. Impact of draught on countries
Ethiopia % mortality
% mortality
Kenya billion USD
long term loss 1 billion USD per year or 2% of GDP
Somalia billion USD loss, intervention 1.77 billion USD
of which 400 million USD revenue loss from live animal exports in 2017
Uganda million USD
million USD

10. Impact of draught on IGAD region
2011 drought impacted more than 12 million people
2017 drought impacted more than 17 million people
livestock mortality rate in the affected pastoral areas was 15–30 percent, with that of cattle and sheep as high as 40–60 percent in some areas
corresponds in total around 20% of TLU
2011: billion USD direct loss and additionally average of 2% GDP/5 years
Estimations for cost of the early action required for the expected drought period this year exceed already 40 Million USD

11. prevention is better than treatment

12. Thank you Protecting people, animals, and the environment everyday
Drawings: FAO/Chiara Caproni