1. Development and pre-operational testing of a European Flood Alert System (EFAS) Ad de Roo EC, DG Joint Research Centre, Ispra (I)

2. LISFLOOD system Meteo data River basin management River basin
ECMWF
DWD
DMI…
River
basin
management
River
basin
management
LISFLOOD
JRC European Data
Soil, Surface,
river catchment
system, …
Flood
simulation &
forecasting
Member States data
River dimensions,
Alert levels

3. Why a European Flood Alert System?
Early flood alert information to NWA (3+ days, max 10) to complement MS WA systems
Catchment based (information from upstream catchment)
Probabilistic approach using different weather forecasts and ensemble weather forecasts (EPS)
Overview and monitoring of flood situation in Europe
Potential backup for national systems
EFAS progress
Feasibility study EFFS ( )
Elbe and Danube floods (2002) triggered pre-operational testing
Development and testing of EFAS prototype ( )
Transfer to operational service (MS, ECMWF, other, ???) (> 2006)

4. EFAS setup Input data European catchments > 2000 km2 on a 5 km grid
Selected transnational catchments on a 1 km grid (Danube, Elbe, Meuse, Oder)
LISFLOOD model
hourly time step
forecast run on arrival of meteo forecasts (00&12)
Input data
2xDWD (GME+LM), 7 days
2xECMWF – Deterministic, 10 days
51x2 ECMWF EPS, 10 days
observed meteo data
Tests with COSMO-LEPS, 5 days

5. Technical set-up

6. European Flood Alert System: Example of a successful flood alert 30 July 2004
Rainfall
forecasted CZ SK
Flood problems
forecasted A HU RU
Black
Sea
Low flood risk
Medium flood risk
High flood risk
Extreme flood risk
Alert send on 30 July;
Floods confirmed by Rumanians on 3-4 August
Adriatic
Sea BG
Siret, Rumania

7. Distribution of information from the
European Flood Alert System (EFAS)
Early Alert Information > 48h before a flood
Flood Information during a crisis
Bi-Monthly Bulletins
Other reports (case studies, publ. …)
Agreed Water Authorities (MoU) & ECMWF
via ECMWF all Meteorological Services of their council.
Any WA during a flood crisis
Public

8. EFAS way forward Pre-operational testing until >2006 Feedback thru:
ECWMF agreement (link to NMS’s)
EFAS network with NWA (thru MoU)
Elbe (IKSE) and Danube (ICPDR) commission, flood WG/ FAP
Flood forecasting exchange circle (F-JRC)
Continued R&D:
JRC workprogramme
IP PREVIEW, IP FLOODSITE, (EFFS)
Establishing proper data exchange environment:
European Parliament support thru DG ENV
DG Enterprise IDA-BC programme
After >2006, transfer to ??

9. Thank you

10. THE LISFLOOD MODEL
specifically developed to simulate floods in large European river basins
spatially distributed and grid-based
enabling the spatial variation of land use, soil properties and precipitation
COMBINATION OF GRID-BASED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL
+ 1D HYDRODYNAMIC CHANNEL FLOW ROUTING MODEL
SPECIAL FEATURES (RESERVOIR OPERATIONS, LAKES, POLDERS)
USING INITIAL CONDITIONS OBTAINED USING WATER BALANCE MODEL
MODEL INPUT
soil data, land use, topography and channel dimensions
meteorological variables as rainfall, potential evapotranspiration and temperature
MODEL OUTPUT
the main output is river discharge
any calculated variable can be reported as either maps, time series of maps or time series at selected point locations