1. New energy budget estimates at top of Earth’s atmosphere and surface
Richard Allan, Chunlei Liu, Keith Haines: NCEO-Reading
NCEO national meeting, June 28th 2017

2. WATER VAPOUR anomaly (%)
TEMPERATURE anomaly (degC)
WATER VAPOUR anomaly (%)
PRECIPITATION anomaly (%)
2.8
1.8
0.8
-0.2
-1.2
-2.2
ENERGY BUDGET anomaly (Wm-2)
Energy imbalance (Wm-2)

3. Recent research: Sea level rise acceleration
Nerem et al. (2018) PNAS: sea level rise accelerating by 0.84 mm/yr per decade in agreement with energy budget estimates
Yi et al. (2017) GRL: accelerated 0.27 mm/yr each year during (?), 44% due to thermal expansion, 41% to land water storage & 15% ice melt
Yi et al. (2017) GRL

4. Updates: AMOC changes in context
AMOC in weak state unprecedented in past 1600 years (Thornalley et al. 2018; Caesar et al. 2018, Nature)
10yr SPG heat content lag 
Thornalley et al. 2018 *
Is recent strengthening (*~ ) temporary flip back to “normal” state?
Caesar et al. 2018

5. Inferred ocean heat transport@26oN
Trenberth & Fasullo (2017) GRL
Compare indirect method with RAPID observations
Is TF2017 discrepancy due to lack of land Fs adjustment?
Ocean heating from ORAS4 (0-700m).
Better agreement after land Fs adjustment
RAPID PW
TF PW
Liu et al: 1.16 PW
large uncertainty

6. Updates: Indonesian Through Flow
 Mayer et al. (2018) GRL: Unprecedented reduction of the ITF Heat Transport & unusual radiation anomalies in El Nino Li et al. (2017) GRL: SE Indian Ocean hotspot early 2000s from increased ITF & local atmospheric forcing Hu & Sprintall (2017) GRL: explained by increased precipitation & freshening

7. ADD E Pacific + NAO stuff…
Oka & Watanabe (2017) GRL: subsurface warming in equatorial Pacific ( ) then increasing heat storage below 700m after 2002 from Ekman transport from tropics to southern subtropics
Modelling evidence: rates of global surface warming not exclusively linked to east Pacific SST (Yao et al. (2017) Nature Climate; Känel et al. (2017) GRL) but imposing observed changes in shortwave cloud radiative effect in E. Pacific explain much of SST/circulation variability of last 16 years (Burgman et al. (2017) GRL)
Iles et al. (2017) ERL: NAO trends quartered NH winter warming in period, contributing to slowdown in global surface warming
Yin et al. (2018) GRL: record 0.24oC rise in global temperature due to ocean heat release from northwestern tropical Pacific
Monerie et al. (2017) ERL: Volcanic forcing explains suppressed surface warming trend (0.08oC/decade), cooling 0.04oC/decade during , more noticeable in northern hemisphere but not affecting continued increases in global heat content.

8. Feedbacks
Marvel et al. (2018) GRL: climate sensitivity diagnosted from present-day SST-forced experiments poor proxy for future due to poor constraint of stratocumulus cloud responses
Silvers et al. (2017) GRL: variability of the climate feedback parameter not driven by stratocumulus dominated regions in the eastern ocean basins, but rather by the cloudy response in the rest of the tropics.
Ceppi and Gregory (2017) PNAS: increased climate sensitivity over time is linked to changes in atmospheric stability relating to the evolution of sea surface temperature patterns: over multiple decades, initially homogeneous tropical warming becomes stronger in the eastern Pacific and high latitude oceans, leading to reduced stability (since warming aloft is linked to tropical warm pool temperature), fewer low clouds and greater solar heating with both lapse rate and low cloud changes causing feedbacks to become more amplifying. These changes are consistent with interannual variability from satellite observations and the work additionally helps to resolve discrepancies between observed and simulated climate sensitivities.
Andrews and Webb(2017) J. Clim: cloud and lapse rate feedbacks in tropical east Pacific related to stability and pattern of SST responses

10. Variation in Earth’s global energy imbalance since the 1980s
TEMPERATURE anomaly (degC)
2.8
1.8
0.8
-0.2
-1.2
-2.2
ENERGY BUDGET anomaly (Wm-2)
Energy imbalance (Wm-2)
Allan et al GRL

11. Changes in global water cycle
WATER VAPOUR anomaly (%)
PRECIPITATION anomaly (%)

12. New global surface flux estimates
top of atmosphere surface
ERBS CERES
reanalyses
Surface energy flux dataset combining TOA reconstruction with reanalysis energy transports: Liu et al. (2015) JGR
Liu et al. (2017) JGR Data:

13. Has increased evaporation driven East Pacific cooling?
Increased cloud cover plays a role? Zhou et al. (2016) Nature Geosci
downward LHF
Decreases in East Pacific surface fluxes since 1990s
Discrepancy to simulations without coupled feedbacks
Is surface evaporation amplifying cooling?

14. Cross-hemispheric energy transport & precipitation biases
Left: New observational estimates of inter-hemispheric energy budget (peta watts):
Liu et al. (2017) JGR
- see also Stephens et al CCCR
Combining top of atmosphere energy buget and reanalysis horizontal energy transports allows new estimates of global surface energy budget
This has enabled advances in observing/understanding inter-hemispheric energy imbalance/transports and precipitation and links to model biases
Many CMIP5 models contain gross errors in cross equatorial energy fluxes which coincide with incorrect depiction of hemispheric precipitation asymmetries offering a potential constraint on climate models
Right: Model precipitation biases linked to cross-equatorial heat transport:
Loeb et al. (2016) Clim. Dyn

15. Meridional Heat Transport Estimate
Inferred from DEEP-C surface energy flux data (Liu et al JGR) & ocean heating (Roemmich et al 2015)
Sensitivity of method to land flux correction
Zonal land correction
26oN

16. New Results - See poster 54 by Keith Haines et al.
Coupled Energy and Water Cycle
Variational analysis of TOA and Surface Energy and Water cycles
Follows work by L’Ecuyer et al (2015) J. Clim, Liu et al (2015) JGR
Uses CERES + Multi-EO products (from L’Ecuyer) and ERA Interim transports + N Atlantic/Arctic ocean transport constraint + Land surface heat flux constraint.
Treats Radiation (SW/LW) and Latent/ Sensible fluxes separately
Solve over 7 Land areas, 9 Ocean areas with 14 d.o.f. (fluxes) for each region = 224 degrees of freedom
Excellent preliminary balanced adjustments to all fluxes
Could apply these as low resolution adjustments to higher resolution product eg as in Liu et al (2017) JGR
New Results - See poster 54 by Keith Haines et al.
Wm-2
L’Ecuyer et al Results

17. Conclusions
Extended Top of atmosphere radiation dataset (Allan et al GRL)
Links between radiative forcing, feedbacks and climate response
Understanding volcanic aerosol climate effects (e.g. Malavelle et al Nature)
New method for deriving surface energy flux (Liu et al JGR)
Combine satellite data with reanalysis energy transports
New estimates of hemispheric energy imbalance and ocean heat transports
Has increased evaporation in East Pacific contributed to decadal cooling?
Future work
Basin-scale combined energy and water cycle budgets through using variational data assimilation inverse techniques: see Keith Haines’ poster
Tracking changes in ocean heat transports (e.g. vs RAPID array)
Understand feedbacks in East Pacific determining decadal climate variability
Exploitation of surface energy flux in diagnosing systematic model biases in the Southern Ocean and monsoon regions

18. Coupled Energy & Water Cycle
Future work: extend residual energy budget to whole system
Use Variational Data Assimilation methods constrain Energy and Water budget residuals (Net flux, LHF, SHF, SW, LW, etc)
See poster by Keith Haines
L’Ecuyer et al. (2015)

19. Coupled Energy & Water Cycle
Future work: extend residual energy budget to whole system
Use Variational Data Assimilation methods constrain Energy and Water budget residuals (Net flux, LHF, SHF, SW, LW, etc)
See poster by Keith Haines
L’Ecuyer et al. (2015)

20. Coupled Energy & Water Cycle
Future work: extend residual energy budget to whole system
Use Variational Data Assimilation methods constrain Energy and Water budget residuals
See poster by Keith Haines
L’Ecuyer et al. (2015)

21. Summary
More accurate multi-decadal global estimates of Earth’s energy budget and its variability (e.g. Cheng et al Sci. Adv.; Allan et al GRL)
Better indicator of global climate change than surface temperature but gaps in observing deep ocean (e.g. Palmer 2017 CCCR)
Link to observed cloudiness? e.g. Norris et al (2016) Nature
Link between energy imbalance and surface warming depends on energy budget of upper mixed ocean layer (Roberts et al JGR; Hedemann et al Nature Climate Change; Xie & Kosaka 2017 CCCR)
Better appreciation of mechanisms of decadal global climate variability
Distinct feedbacks on internal variability/forced change (Brown et al J. Clim; Xie et al Nature Geosci; Zhou et al. (2016) Nature Geosci
Obs. estimates of climate sensitivity (Richardson et al. (2016) Nature Climate)
Spatial patterns of warming crucial (Gregory and Andrews (2016) GRL)
What explains decreased heating of E Pacific and is it realistic?
Advances in observing/understanding inter-hemispheric energy imbalance/transport and links to CMIP5 precipitation biases (Frierson et al. 2013; Loeb et al Clim. Dyn; Stephens et al CCCR)
Possible constraint on realism of climate models (Haywood et al. (2016) GRL)

22. Feedbacks on internal and forced climate change involving regional energy budget
Low Cloud Cover trend s-2000s Surface energy flux change
Distinct feedbacks on internal variability & forced change e.g. Brown et al J. Clim; Xie et al Nature Geosci; England et al. (2014) Nature Clim
Spatial patterns of warming crucial for feedbacks & climate sensitivity e.g. He & Soden (2016) J. Clim; Richardson et al. (2016) Nature Clim Change; Gregory & Andrews (2016) GRL
OBSERVATIONS AMIP MODELS
Combining decadal observations of cloud, radiation and energy transports is leading to advances in understanding regional to global feedbacks
There is emerging evidence of contrasting energy budget responses/feedbacks acting on internal and forced variability
The spatial pattern of warming is crucial in determining global feedback responses; accounting for this may help in determining climate sensitivity from observations
Zhou et al. (2016) Nature Geosci
Liu et al. (2015) JGR
What explains decreased heating of E Pacific; is it realistic?

23. Improved global energy imbalance estimates
More accurate global imbalance from ocean and satellite observations: Cheng et al. 2017:
Steady decadal ocean heating since 2000: Wm-2 (Johnson et al. 2016)
Radiative forcing/internal variability influence TOA radiation (Palmer/ McNeall 2014; Allan et al. 2014; Huber/Knutti 2014; Xie/Kosaka 2017)
Upper ocean heat budget explains surface temperature: Hedemann et al NatureCC
Improved and longer records of ocean heating and top of atmosphere radiation measurements have improved estimates of Earth’s energy imbalance and its changes over recent decades.
Simulations with prescribed observed SST and radiative forcing are able to capture variations in energy budget
Greater appreciation for the role of internal variability in influencing global energy budget and the link between energy imbalance and surface temperature via heat budget of upper ocean
Allan (2017) Nature Climate Change

24. Evaluation of turbulent flux changes
Surface flux change minus
Kato et al (2013) J Clim
CERES
Turbulent flux: Fs - FRAD
OAFlux systematically lower (removed)
Good agreement in anomaly variability
Buoy data agree better with our product than with OAFlux
Are trends in reanalysis winds reliable?

25. Remote forcing from Atlantic:
Radiative Forcing/Imbalance Johnson et al. (2016) ; Checa-Garcia et al. (2016) ; Huber & Knutti (2014) ;Santer et al. (2015) :
Role of Atlantic/Pacific Variability?
Continued heating from greenhouse gases
Aerosol forcing of circulation (Smith et al. 2016)
Unusual weather patterns (Ding et al. 2014; Trenberth et al. 2014b)
Pacific SST strengthens atmospheric circulation
Enhanced Walker Circulation
? Heat flux to Indian ocean Lee etal 2015
Increased sea height
Warm
Upwelling,
Cool water
Remote forcing from Atlantic:
Li et al. (2016) ;
McGregor et al. (2014)
Strengthening trade winds
Increased precipitation
Decreased salinity
Equatorial Undercurrent
There is lots of new results focussing on the slower rates of surface warming and associated unusual climatic conditions at the beginning of the 21st century (see DEEP-C website:
Pacific dominates?
Mann et al. (2016) Kosaka & Xie (2013) England et al. (2014)
Enhanced mixing of heat below 100 metres depth by accelerating shallow overturning cells and equatorial undercurrent
See also: Merrifield (2010).; Sohn et al. (2013) .; L’Heureux et al. (2013) . Change; Watanabe et al. (2014) ; Balmaseda et al. (2013) ; Trenberth et al. (2014) .; Llovel et al. (2014) ;Durack et al. (2014) ; Nieves et al. (2015) ; Brown et al. (2015) JGR ; Somavilla et al. (2016) ; Liu et al. (2016)