1. IS A NEW COLD/HOT WAR COMING TO EAST ASIA?

2. WHEN AND WHERE IS THIS SITUATION?
Heavily-armed countries.
Territorial disputes.
Historical hostilities.
Shifting balance of power.

3. EUROPE: EVE of WORLD WARS I and II

4. WHEN AND WHERE IS THIS SITUATION?
Heavily-armed countries.
Territorial disputes.
Historical hostilities.
Shifting balance of power.

5. EAST ASIA: NOW

6. HEAVILY-ARMED COUNTRIES
Asia’s top powers have double defense spending over
approximately the last 10 years.
Overall annual military spending in Asia has grown to $224 billion in 2011
(Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies).
China, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan account for about
87% percent of Asia’s defense spending.
China’s share of the total spending has risen from about 20 % in
2000 to 40 percent in 2011.  Growing annually at a rate of 13.4% -
three times or more faster than the other countries.

7. BIGGEST MILITARY BUDGETS (2011)
United States
China
Russia
United Kingdom
France
Japan
Saudi Arabia
India
Germany
Brazil
Italy
South Korea
Australia
Canada
Turkey
China, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan account for about
87% percent of Asia’s defense spending.
China’s share of the total spending has risen from about 20 % in
2000 to 40 percent in 2011.  Growing annually at a rate of 13.4% -
three times or more faster than the other countries.
But nowhere close to the defense spending increases in the 1950s
and 1960s, or even the 1970s and 1980s, during the East-West Cold War.

8. TERRITORIAL DISPUTES

9. NYT (Graphic)

10. PACIFIC STORM: MEDVEDEV VISITS KUNASHIR
1 Nov 2010: President Dmitry Medvedev visits Kunashir: “Development here is important. We will definitely be investing money here.”
Japan recalled the Japanese ambassador to Russia in protest against the visit.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov: “It is our land. The Russian President visited Russian lands.”
February 2011: Russia announces plans to deploy military equipment.
Prime Minister Medvedev visits Kunashir again: triggering an angry Japanese reaction. “Islands are an important part of the Sakhalin region and an important part of the Russian land.”
Japanese Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Kenichiro Sasae: “unacceptable”, “deeply sorrowful”, and “islands are an integral part of Japan”
Medvedev response: “absolutely indifferent” to Japanese response.

11. SOUTHEAST ASIA: DIFFERENT SCENE, SAME STORY

12. SOUTHEAST ASIAN MARITIME DISPUTES

14. HISTORICAL HOSTILITIES
China & Korea: China invasions (17th century); Korean civil war ( ).
Russia & Japan: Russo-Japanese War ( ); World War II
(1937 – 45).
China & Japan: Sino-Japanese War ( ); World War II (1937 – 45).
Korea & Japan: Japan invasions ( ); Japanese Occupation
(1905/ ).
Japan & Southeast Asia: Japanese invasions ( ).
North & South Korea: War and other hostilities (1945 – present).
Beijing & Taipie: War and tensions (1949 – present).
China & Vietnam: China invasion (1979).
Historical hostilities involving Japan are particularly unresolved: Comfort
Women, ‘apologies,’ war shrines, and textbooks.

15. HEGEMONIC TRANSITION Hegemonic rule = global system stability.
Hegemon: One state has a preponderant military and
economic power.
Hegemonic decline and hegemonic challenger =
System instability and possibly war.
“War is most likely, of longest duration, and greatest magnitude, when a challenger to the dominant power enters into approximate parity with the dominant
state and is dissatisfied with the existing system.”

16. U.S vs
China
경원 : Since few decades ago, China has risen rapidly. Therefore world’s interests are in China now. Especially America focuses on china.
주현 : China can grow peacefully, or there might be conflict between two titans.
How does it go?
경원: We summurized. 16

17. NOW, WHAT ABOUT SOUTH KOREA?

18. KOREA IS A MIDDLE POWER Country Population (Millions) Birth Rate
Land Mass
(km2)
Gross
Domestic
Product
(GDP in
billions of US Dollars)
GDP
(Purchasing
Power Parity in billions of USD)
Economic
Growth Rate
Budget (in
billions of USD)
Military
Spending (% of GDP &
absolute value in billions of USD)
Military Manpower
(millions)
Army
Manpower
China
1,350
+0.7%
9,569,901
$4,300
$8,000 9%
$900
4-4.5% $200 3
2.2
Japan
127
-0.2%
364,485
$4,900
$4,400 0%
$1800
1% $50
0.250
0.148
Russia
140
-0.5%
16,377,742
$1,800
$2,300 6%
$275
4% $80 1
0.4
ROK
48.6
+0.3
96,920
$1300
2.5%
$222
2.7% $24
0.65
0.5
DPRK
22.6
+0.4
120,408
$26
$40
-2.3% $3
N/A
1.2

19. CASES SIMILAR TO KOREA Poland Between Germany & Russia.
Repeatedly conquered and divided over two centuries.
Germany
Between Russia & the West.
Conquered twice in 30 years.
Mongolia
Between China & Russia.
Controlled by the USSR for 75 years.
Paraguay
Between Brazil & Argentina.
Lost 30% of its territory and most of male population killed in the War of the Triple Alliance.

20. HOW HAS SOUTH KOREA AVOIDED DOMINATION SINCE 1953?
With a US Alliance: A large outside power (US) has pushed back against China and Russia, and has controlled Japan.
_____________________________________________________
Now What? Answer these two questions:
Q 1: Is a new Cold or Hot war coming to Northeast Asia?
Why or why not?
Q 2: Whether you believe a new Cold or Hot war is coming, how
should South Korea best ensure its future security? Choose one option and defend your
answer.
Remain closely allied with the United States?
Move closer to China and accept Chinese dominance in
Northeast Asia?
Ally with Japan, and perhaps Taiwan, to balance China?
Seek farther out alliances with Southeast Asia, EU, or India?
Move closer to Russia?
Stand alone and develop independent security?
Become neutral like Switzerland or Finland?