1. Gas for Climate
the optimal role for gas in a net zero emissions EU energy system
Renewable power to fuels
Portland, oregon
may 20, 2019

2. deep decarbonization of Eu energy system needed to meet climate goals
With the 2015 Paris Agreement,195 countries agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and to aim for 1.5°C
Studies show that to meet the target, we should aim for net zero carbon emissions in 2050
This is recognized in scenarios for the recent EU Communication on the 2050 strategy
This implies that to meet the target, countries (including the EU) need to decarbonize their energy systems within 30 years

3. Maintaining a role for gas and gas infrastructure in the 2050 energy system has important benefits
The Paris Agreement increases the sense of urgency and raises the bar on climate action
The debate on the energy transition focuses on electrification, gas seen as transition fuel
However, renewable gas and gas infrastructure have important benefits
The Gas for Climate group was established to develop and communicate a vision on the benefits of using renewable gas and gas infrastructure in meeting the Paris Agreement climate change target and supporting a net zero carbon EU energy system by The group consists of 7 major gas TSOs plus two biogas associations

4. New Gas for climate study
Current study is an update of our 2018 study with a significantly expanded scope
Purpose of the study remains the same:
To assess the role and value of gas used in existing gas infrastructure in a net zero emissions EU energy system compared to a situation in which the use of gas is minimised.
A net zero emissions EU energy system by 2050 is possible and the system can become fully renewable, with a valuable role for biomethane and green hydrogen alongside renewable electricity.
Blue hydrogen is critical to achieve fast decarbonisation and kickstart the hydrogen market in coming decades
Gas infrastructure needed to scale up renewable gas to 9.6 Tcf by 2050, enabling a decarbonised and renewables-based energy system at lowest costs
New Gas for Climate Study

5. new gas for climate study analyses almost the full energy system

6. TWO full decarbonisation energy system scenarios minimal gas scenario VS optimised gas scenario
Renewable and low carbon gas use is limited to industry, in cases where no reasonable alternative exists
Renewable and low carbon gas are in a smart combination with renewable electricity
Heat supply by all-electric heat pumps, next to district heating
Very high insulation of new and existing buildings
Heat supply by hybrid heat pumps, next to all-electric heat pumps and district heating. Hydrogen use possible in certain geographic areas
Very high insulation of new buildings, good insulation of existing buildings
BUILDINGS
BUILDINGS
INDUSTRY
Hydrogen is used for high temperature industrial heat >300°F plus industrial feedstock
Hydrogen is produced at industrial sites, so no central hydrogen from dedicated renewable electricity
INDUSTRY
Hydrogen and some methane is used for high temperature industrial heat >300°F plus industrial feedstock
Hydrogen is produced centrally from dedicated renewable electricity and transported to industrial sites through gas grids
TRANSPORT
Electricity dominates light transport, biodiesel used in international shipping and long-distance truck transport
TRANSPORT
Bio-LNG and hydrogen used in long distance trucks, bio-LNG used in international shipping. Electricity dominates light transport
POWER
No role for gas
Solid biomass to produce dispatchable electricity in gas power plants
Very large quantities of rooftop solar-PV and offshore wind
Modest increase in hydropower
Batteries used for intraday storage
POWER
Hydrogen and biomethane to produce dispatchable electricity in gas power plants
Very large quantities of rooftop solar-PV and offshore wind
Modest increase in hydropower. Small role for solid biomass power
Batteries used for intraday storage
INFRA-STRUCTURE
No role for gas infrastructure. Gas transmission infrastructure will in many cases be decommissioned
INFRA-STRUCTURE
Gas grids can transport hydrogen in blends (>10%) with methane. By 2050, part of existing transmission grids will be retrofitted for dedicated hydrogen transport and part will be used to transport methane

7. It is possible to sustainably scale-up biomethane supply at Much reduced production costs
Biomethane can supply up to 3.4 quad (3.4 Tcf natural gas equivalent) at much reduced costs of $16–19/MMBtu
ANAEROBIC DIGESTION PROCES
THERMAL GASIFICATION PROCES
EU biomethane potential per conversion technology and feedstock type by 2050 (in bcf natural gas equivalent)
Source: Navigant analysis

8. Hydrogen is a valuable addition to the available biomethane supply
Hydrogen can supply up to 5.8 quads to the EU buildings, industry, transport and power sectors
There is large theoretical potential of offshore wind and solar PV. The technical potential for green hydrogen production is enormous
The costs of hydrogen based on dedicated renewable electricity can come down to about $17/MMBtu
Blue hydrogen produced from natural gas combined with CCS can be a scalable and cost-effective option to accelerate decarbonisation in coming years.
In the energy transition a scale-up of blue hydrogen can increase chances to keep global warming well below 2 degrees C
Overview of potential hydrogen production hubs
In longer term the future energy system will be fully renewable, with blue hydrogen being replaced by renewable green hydrogen.
Additional potential for hydrogen exists if imports to the EU are considered as well

9. Sustainable renewable gas can be supplied at strongly reduced production costs by 2050
The envisioned 2050 production costs of renewable gas–biomethane, power-to-methane and green hydrogen–range from $16/MMBtu for biomethane through thermal gasification to $25/MMBtu for power-to-methane
Source: Navigant analysis

10. Renewable gas can significantly reduce system costs, especially in four key sweet spots
POWER
DISPATCHABLE POWER
COLD SPELLS
BUILDINGS
Source: Energy-Charts.de
Source: US National Weather Service
HIGH TEMP HEAT & FEEDSTOCKS
HEAVY ROAD TRANSPORT & LONG DISTANCE SHIPPING
INDUSTRY
TRANSPORT
Picture shows the process of producing renewable hydrogen which is used to produce fertilizer, which boosts crop production in a more climate-friendly way H2
Source: Ecofys

11. Renewable and low carbon gas supply and demand in the optimised gas scenario
Renewable methane – biomethane and power- to-methane – is used primarily in the buildings and power sectors through gas grids and in the transport sector as bio-LNG
Hydrogen is used primarily in the transport, industry, and power sectors and in specific regions also in the buildings sector
Source: Navigant analysis

12. Energy flows in the optimised gas and Minimal gas scenario

13. Gas infrastructure needed to scale up renewable gas to 9.6 Tcf by 2050
Gas infrastructure needed to scale up renewable gas to 9.6 Tcf by 2050, enabling a decarbonised and renewables-based energy system at lowest costs
The “optimised gas” scenario results in €19 billion ($21 billion) of lower energy infrastructure costs compared to “minimal gas” annually by 2050 due to prolonged utilisation of gas infrastructure.
Much higher additional cost savings associated with “optimised gas” are achieved elsewhere in the energy system.
Electricity infrastructure
Gas infrastructure
Current EU gas infrastructure

14. Different options for infrastructure
SUPPLY
CH4
CH4
CH4 < 10% H2
CH4 < 10% H2
CH4 H2
DEMAND

15. Distribution of Biomethane and Hydrogen throughout Europe
CH4
Distribution of Biomethane and Hydrogen throughout Europe
Option for text

16. a smart combination of renewable gas and electricity will be the optimal way to decarbonise the EU energy system
Using 9.6 Tcf natural gas equivalent of renewable methane and hydrogen through existing gas infrastructure saves society $243 billion annually across the energy system compared to an energy system using a minimal amount of gas.
Renewable and low carbon gas is most valuable in the buildings sector, where relatively small volumes are required in hybrid heat pumps
Largest volumes are expected in heavy transport (long distance trucks and shipping)
Annual societal cost savings by sector:
Buildings $68 billion
Industry $78 billion
Transport $16 billion
Power $60 billion
Infrastructure $21 billion
Source: Navigant analysis

17. For more information, contact:
Frank Stern
Managing Director
Kees van der Leun
Director
Daan Peters
Associate Director