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Winter/Spring Outlook: 2018 - 2019
ALBL 78th Annual Meeting New Orleans 5 December 2018 Jay Grymes WAFB Chief Meteorologist LSU AgCenter Climatologist
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Annual Precipitation Trends: since 1900
USGCRP (2017): NCA4 Climate Science Special Report
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LOUISIANA STATEWIDE AVERAGE RAINFALL
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Seasonal Precipitation Trends: since 1900
USGCRP (2017): NCA4 Climate Science Special Report
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VERY WET VERY WET VERY WET VERY WET VERY DRY
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U.S. Drought Monitor: 29 November
None D2 – Severe Drought D0 – Abnormally Dry D3 – Extreme Drought D1 – Moderate Drought D1 – Exceptional Drought
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These are “climatological outlooks” … not “weather forecasts”
NWS Climate Prediction Center “Monthly Outlooks” These are “climatological outlooks” … not “weather forecasts” They present the “best scientific guess” for averages of temperature & precipitation … … they do NOT provide guidance with respect to extreme weather events.
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Temperature: December
~40% Above-Normal 33% Near-Normal ~27% Below-Normal ~35% to 45% chance that monthly average temperatures across Louisiana will be “significantly” above normal
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Rainfall: December ~50% Above-Normal 33% Near-Normal ~17% Below-Normal
~45% to 55% chance that monthly total rainfall across Louisiana will be “significantly” above normal
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“Near-normal” to “Wet”
Temperature: Jan-Feb-Mar “EC” – Equal Chances No Tendency Rainfall: Jan-Feb-Mar “Near-normal” to “Wet”
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Temperature: Jan-Feb-Mar
“EC” – No tendencies No ‘hints’ as to monthly average temperature tendencies for Louisiana for the period
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Rainfall: Jan-Feb-Mar
~40% Above-Normal 33% Near-Normal ~27% Below-Normal ~35% to 45% chance that monthly total rainfall across Louisiana will be “significantly” above normal
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Rainfall: Jan-Feb-Mar
Locally, a “wet” leaning outlook . . . . . . but a “dry” leaning outlook for the Ohio Basin is potentially good news for the Lower Mississippi
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ENSO – El Niño / Southern Oscillation
-- Ocean-Atmosphere linkage that produces “shifts” in regional / global weather and climate patterns teleconnections El Niño / La Niña: ocean temperature (SST) ‘signature’ Southern Oscillation: atmosphere pressure- pattern ‘signature’
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El Niño ‘signature’ along Gulf Coast:
‘Active’ Sub-Tropical Jet - ’Rainmaker’ Sub-Tropical Jet More Frequent Gulf Lows “Warm” SSTs
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La Niña ’signature’ along Gulf Coast:
‘Less Persistent’ Winter Sub-Tropical Jet Fewer Gulf Lows “Cool” SSTs
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Pacific Sea-Surface Temps (SSTs) El Niño on the way?
Region of “warm” SSTs El Niño on the way?
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ENSO – El Niño / Southern Oscillation
El Niño – “warm” phase … ~25% of time La Niña – “cool” phase … ~ 25% of time La Nada – “near normal” El Niño La Niña
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El Niño Median Rainfall: La Niña Median Rainfall:
November thru March El Niño in Winter/Spring: “wet” Gulf Coast La Niña Median Rainfall: November thru March La Niña in Winter/Spring: “dry” Gulf Coast
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Average January - April Rainfall El Niño vs. non-El Niño periods
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Average January - April Rainfall El Niño vs. non-El Niño periods
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Average January - April Rainfall
Southeast Louisiana
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ENSO and Bayou State Rainfall
Solid relationships between South Louisiana rain during winter and spring, but weak link for the northern parishes ENSO can serve as a predictor (“Guidance”) for South LA rainfall for at least part of the year
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WAFB Chief Meteorologist LSU AgCenter Climatologist (Ret.)
“Thank You!” Jay Grymes WAFB Chief Meteorologist LSU AgCenter Climatologist (Ret.) 225 /
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This does NOT mean that $LOSSES are declining!
CAREFUL! This does NOT mean that $LOSSES are declining!
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