1. Introduction and History
Transportation Demand Analysis
Lecture note
Introduction and History
Meeghat Habibian

2. Remember from Transportation Planning
Transportation Demand Analysis
Lecture note
Remember from Transportation Planning
Meeghat Habibian

3. Facts Activities in different land use  Necessity of transportation
Complexity of transportation Complexity of analysis method
Necessity of transportation planning
Transportation Demand Analysis – Car Ownership Models

4. Demand concept
Different levels of volume according to different levels of service (i.e., A function relates level of service and volume)
Note: The difference between demand and volume
Economic approach:
Demand is consumption rates at different levels of cost.
Traffic volume ≡ Consumption rate
Level of service ≡ Cost
Transportation Demand Analysis – Car Ownership Models

5. Demand analysis
Exploring relationship between need to transportation and effective factors (e.g., socio-economic factors)
The process performed through a structure known as “model”
Modeling: How to explore the aforementioned relationship
Transportation Demand Analysis – Car Ownership Models

6. History of demand analysis
Transportation Demand Analysis
Lecture note
History of demand analysis
Meeghat Habibian

7. History of demand analysis (before 1950)
Kohl, 1850: Resources distribution and transportation network
Ravenstein, 1885: Gravity model for intercity migration
Lille, 1891: Analysis of rail network design
Reilly, 1929: Retail attraction on urban movements
Stewart, 1948: Demographic gravitation
Stouffer, 1940: Spatial interaction of land uses
Zipf, 1946: Appling Gravity model for urban transportation
: Role of land use on transportation
(e.g., Mitchell & Rapkin,1954)
Transportation Demand Analysis – Car Ownership Models

8. History of demand analysis (1950-1980):
Role of land use on transportation
(e.g., Mitchell & Rapkin,1954)
Applying “microeconomic theory” in Transportation demand
(Beckmann, Mc. Guire and Winsten, 1956)
Developing consumer theory in Transportation demand
Introduction of behavioral approach (Utility or Satisfaction)
Developing choice theory (Destination, Mode and Route)
Transportation Demand Analysis – Car Ownership Models

9. History of demand analysis (after 1980)
Integration of demand and land use models
Appling developments of “microeconomic theory”
Considering socio-economic activities in demand modeling
Considering attitudes as a reason of behavior
Adopting statistics and probability science
Assuming behavior as a stochastic issue
Developing the concept of heterogeneity
Transportation Demand Analysis – Car Ownership Models

10. Demand analysis at present
Transportation Demand Analysis
Lecture note
Demand analysis at present
Meeghat Habibian

11. New role of demand analysis in TP
Policy making approach (TDM and TSM)
Estimation of economic effects on demand (e.g., fuel cost, …)
Adjusting demand to meet supply limitations
Assumption I: People are aware of transportation cost
Assumption II: People are aware of transportation externalities
Transportation Demand Analysis – Car Ownership Models

12. New analytical methods
Considering time budget in daily trips
Hagerstrand theory
Trip chaining approach
Activity based appraoch
Transportation Demand Analysis – Car Ownership Models

13. Developments in analytical abilities
Development of behavioral model
Improvements in statistical methods (e.g., MLE,…)
Decrease in size of transportation databanks
Developments in computers and computation
Transportation Demand Analysis – Car Ownership Models

14. Transportation Demand Analysis – Car Ownership Models
Finnish