1. Geoscience Human Resources Emerging Risks for Resources
Christopher Keane
American Geological Institute
28 March 2011

2. Four Challenges for a Sustainable Future Geoscience Workforce
Carrying Capacity
Meeting Future Demand
Quality
Maintaining Capacity Building

3. are we at Carrying Capacity?
First Challenge
are we at Carrying Capacity?

4. US Geoscience Enrollments
1955 -
2010 40 ,
000
35,000 30 ,
000
Undergraduate
Students
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
Graduate 5 ,
000 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
Year

5. US Geoscience Degrees Awarded 1973-2010
8,000
7,000
6,000 D e g r s A w a d
5,000
Bachelor's
4,000
3,000
2,000
Master's
1,000
Doctorate 1 9 7 3 4 5 6 8 2
Year
Source: AGI's Directory of Geoscience
Departments

6. can we Meet Future Needs?
Second Challenge
can we Meet Future Needs?

7. Attrition, Replacement, and Growth in the next 10 years in the U.S.
125,000 geoscientists expected to retire
72,000 geoscience job growth by 2018 (BLS)
15,000 total new graduates over the next 10 years
Or 45,000 total new graduates if you hire B.S. level
Net deficit of over 150,000 by 2021

8. Crew Change is already hitting Federal Agencies
30% P e r c n t o f T a l G s i
2003
25%
2005
2007
20%
2010
15%
10% 5% 0%
< 30 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64
65+
Age Group
Data derived from the Office of Personnel Management fedscope database.

9. Options for Filling the Gap
Decrease student attrition
Geoscience major to career is 13% (half of other STEM fields)
Import talent
This isn’t Information Technology….
Expand domestic capacity
Funding sources
Quality of input

10. Geoscience Degree Completion Rates, 1973-2007 Do we need a draft
Geoscience Degree Completion Rates, Do we need a draft? but seriously…
45%
Completion Rate of Geoscience Degrees
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10% 5% 0%
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Bachelor's
Master's
Ph.D.
Source: AGI Geoscience
Workforce Program, data derived from AGI's Directory of Geoscience Departments, and

11. Where are geoscientists?
United States: 250,000 geoscientists
Russia: 80,000 geoscientist
Europe: 60,000 geoscientists
China: 40,000 geoscientists
Canada: 20,000 geoscientists
Africa: ~10,000 geoscientists
South America: Unknown
Middle East: Unknown
Iraq: 5,000
India: Unknown

12. can we Import Talent?

13. Third Challenge
Quality

14. New graduates aren’t ready for the workforce
The leading complaint of employers
New graduates aren’t ready for the workforce

15. Leading response of Academe
We Educate, Not Train

16. Degree-Granting Diversity by Department Educate Yes, Workplace Aligned, No
Ph.D.
Ph.D.
Ph.D. MS MS MS BS BS BS
1980
1990
2000
Departments granting over 25% of all degrees
Departments granting the second quartile of all degrees
Departments granting the second half of all degrees
100 Departments
Source: AGI/GeoRef

17. Geoscience is not Attracting the Best, or even the Average
The pews are full, but are the lights on?
Geoscience is not Attracting the Best, or even the Average

18. Mean Math SAT Scores of Selected Majors
580
All Test Takers
560
Biology
Chemistry
Physics
540 M e a n S A T c o r
Geology, Earth or Space Science
520
518
518
516
515
515
512
514
508
500
480
460
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2009
Source: AGI Geoscience Workforce
Program, data derived from the College Board
College -
Bound Seniors, Total Group Report ,
1996 -
2009

19. Mean Writing SAT Scores by Major
530
All Test Takers
520
Biology
Chemistry
510 M e a n S A T c o r
Physics
500
Geology, Earth, or Space Science
497
490
494
494
493
480
470
460
450
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: AGI Geoscience Workforce
Program, data derived from the College Board
College -
Bound Seniors, Total Group Report ,
2006 -
2009

20. Maintaining Capacity Building into the Future
Fourth Challenge
Maintaining Capacity Building into the Future

21. The Prospect of Capacity Building Collapse
Loss of faculty in competency areas
Existing Experienced Practitioners Lull the 15-year question
Without alignment to tenure/promotion, no incentive
What happens when capacity building collapses?

22. Geoscience Theses & Dissertation Topics 1950s vs 1980s
Environmental/Hydro
Economic Geology
Geochemistry
Geophysics
Igneous/Metamorphic
Stratigraphy/Paleo
Sedimentary Geology
Structure/Tectonics
Other
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Number of Theses and Dissertations
AGI 1991

23. Solid Earth Incentives for Faculty?
Total Geoscience Research Funding by Sub -
discipline P e r c n t o f T a l G s i R h F u d g
60%
$4,000 T o t a l G e s c i n R r h F u d g ( M U S D )
$3,500
50%
$3,000
Geoscience Research Funding (USD)
40%
$2,500
Atmospheric sciences (%)
30%
$2,000
$1,500
Geological sciences (%)
20%
$1,000
Oceanography (%)
10%
$500
Environmental Science (%) 0% $0 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2

24. Beware of the South Africa Phenomena
In Case of Emergency
Beware of the South Africa Phenomena
Viability of Substitution
Retraining or engage Peter Smith’s “Middle Third”
Measurable economic constraint