1. New Challenges, Old Thinking: Indian Foreign Policy at the Crossroads
Rajesh Rajagopalan
Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

2. Rarely worked in the past, unlikely to work now
PM Modi at the conclusion of his Shangri La Dialogue speech: “The world is at a crossroad”
Cause countries face choice between cooperative & conflictual international order
Typically, India’s dilemma is framed as a larger problem, not just India’s
Rarely worked in the past, unlikely to work now
Rather, it is India that faces choice:
continue traditional approach that was barely satisfactory
Seek a new path in its strategic policy to meet new challenges

3. Indian foreign policy very paradoxical
TO UNDERSTAND CURRENT DILEMMA INDIA FACES, LOOK BRIEFLY AT INDIAN FOREIGN POLICY PARADOXES
Indian foreign policy very paradoxical
India has traditionally been very (irritatingly) moralistic in its foreign policy
But it is also a country that has built nuclear weapons
Non-aligned, but also aligned (briefly) with US and the Soviet Union during the Cold War
A leader of the Third World, but no friends among its Third World neighbors
Great supporter of multilateralism
Except on issues that concern its national interest (Kashmir, nuclear weapons)
A democracy, but has traditionally been more suspicious of other democracies
Poor relations with the West, warm ties with the East/Soviet bloc, undemocratic third world dictators
What explains this?

4. REGIONAL DOMINANCE & ITS CONSEQUENCES
Basically, a large, secure state that could be indulgent on international affairs
The dominant power in South Asia
Roughly 70% of size, population, GDP etc. of the region
Consequence: Fairly relaxed security environment
No existential or even major external or internal threats
Allowed New Delhi to pursue ‘moral’ foreign policy
Aimed at diffused general interest than specifically Indian interests
‘One World’, Nuclear disarmament, NAM, G-77, multilateralism etc.
Lackadaisical attitude towards nukes
Emphasized ‘internal’ rather than ‘external’ balancing

5. CHALLENGES TO REGIONAL DOMINANCE
There have been a couple of challenges to Indian regional hegemony
Explains occasional Realist slant
Because of extra-regional threats that India couldn’t handle
China war (1962)
Sino-Pak-US axis (1971)
Opposition to external involvement in South Asia or even Indian Ocean
Very different attitude among India’s neighborrs
But these were both temporary
China not strong enough to challenge India in South Asia
Others not particularly interested

6. NEW CHALLENGE: CHINA’S RISE
A fundamentally new circumstance
Massive material disparity
From rough parity in 1990, today China’s GDP 2.5 times that of India (PPP)
In terms of US $, about five times (US $ 2.5 v trillion)
Military budget is almost three times India’s
Direct military threat on border, Indian Ocean
Enhance Pakistan threat
Two-front war threat
Technological threat
Outer space
Advanced weapons

7. THE CHALLENGES China’s challenge to Indian regional dominance
More comprehensive and capable than any previous challenge
Will be enduring
China much more interested in balancing India, unlike previous (US)
Neighbors will be tempted to balance (Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives, Pakistan)
Internal balancing no longer sufficient
Relative capacity insufficient
Traditional international partners (NAM, Russia etc.) no longer useful
China more attractive to them
Multilateralism of little use (China will have more support)
UNSC Seat, NSG, SCO, AIIB
Indian defense reforms
Poor political direction
Indian state capacity
Short-term political imperatives

8. OLD THINKING/ATTITUDES CONTINUE
Focus still on internal balancing
Gradual but very slow change
Partnerships as transactional or worse, free-rideable
Foreign policy dominated still by Nonalignment/”strategic autonomy”
Still suspicious of US/West/Australia etc.
Hedging, at best
Culture of dominance continues:
India as a great power
India as equal to China
Exaggeration of India’s importance
India’s rise creates false confidence
Dismissiveness towards neighbors

9. WHICH PATH? Limited choices Appease China Balance China
Has its benefits
May be able to continue to dominate region
But politically difficult
Balance China
Need to align more vigorously
Hasten defense reform
Enhance state capacity