1. Drought and displacement in Somalia
Need for early solutions and joint planning
June 2019

2. Early Solutions: What does that mean?
Definition: Early solutions planning encompasses steps to build the resilience of IDPS and host communities, as well as prepare IDPs for future durable solutions during the early stages of displacement. The time frame of early solutions covers actions that can be taken pre-displacement and up to the first 3 years of an influx of IDPs.
Key questions to address:
How to invest to prevent displacement into identified hot spots (to ensure adequate preparedness and enhance early response capacity including in hard-to-reach areas)?
How to support urban centres and mayors/ local authorities in planning and preparing for influx of IDPs?
How to ensure joint planning between humanitarian and development actors and between resilience and durable solutions groups – collective accountability?

3. Key facts and figures Key figures Key facts
1.7 M people in Somalia face acute food shortages due to delayed and insufficient seasonal rainfall
40% of the Somali population in need food assistance
54,300 people have been displaced since the start of 2019 by drought.
Central/ northern regions are the most affected and to a lesser extend rural livelihoods in southern Somalia in Bay/Bakool and Hiran
(source: FSNAU, IOM,PRMN UNHCR…)
Key facts
IDPs are highly vulnerable to drought due to social exclusion and lack of connectedness, part of minority clans, etc
Drought means massive displacement into crowded cities as displacement is used as coping mechanism
Urban issue
Inclusion and marginalization
2017 drought displaced are still displaced
(Sources: ReDSS reports, WB DINA, FAM, ODI/HPG, Ken Menkhaus studies, …)
Policy Dialogue
Program support and capacity development
- IDPs are highly vulnerable to drought due to their lack of connectedness and so difficulty to borrow and to access markets, little social cohesion and connection to host communities, part of minority clans, etc.
Although there is a common assumption that ‘drought-displaced’ refugees and IDPs will go back home right after the drought, this is usually not the case as other factors such as security, access to services and education, are part of displaced‘ decision to stay or return. It is therefore critical to address IDPs needs from the onset as the majority of 2011 and 2017 displaced are still displaced in early solutions needed.
Time, or the duration of displacement, is rarely explicitly investigated as a factor in the social influences of forced displacement. Time can be a critical and cross-cutting dynamic that can affect not just social cohesion but also how indicators of social cohesion can best be utilized and be context specific.

4. Program support and capacity development
Use of displacement related data to inform drought response and joint planning
Use DTM/PRMN/FSNAU/ resilience and DS consortia data to better understand profile/ vulnerabilities/ needs and movements of different groups such as pastoralists, agro pastoralist, riverine and IDPs to inform better preparedness and targeted response
Support joint planning between humanitarian and development actors and between resilience and durable solutions groups to ensure complementarities and synergies based on stakeholders’expertise and capacity (rural/ urban, life saving/ infrastructures…)
Ensure that assessments of immediate humanitarian and protection needs are complemented by deeper, area-based analyses beyond IPC – collective accountability
Prevent displacement and when feasible deliver aid as close to the rural population as possible based on monitoring of access and availability of water and food
Policy Dialogue
Program support and capacity development
In 2017, the comprehensive Drought Impact Needs Assessment (DINA), conducted for the FGS with the support of the World Bank, the European Union (EU) and the UN, pointed to the need for a closer focus on reducing the risk of famine, particularly in inaccessible areas, areas affected by high levels of internal displacement or where communities or groups have been excluded from government attention or international aid. It is therefore essential that Danwadaag focuses on its comparative advantage to plan and prepare within areas that are already affected by high level of displacement and that will receive more, while addressing social inclusion issues.
The famine risk factors have not changed, and may have worsened. Clan dynamics, displacement and marginalization play an important role in determining recurrent vulnerability and ultimately mortality, especially famine-related mortality. The response to the 2017 drought took specific steps to target assistance not just according to generic IPC classifications, but also combined this data with information on the impact of displacement, social exclusion and historical disempowerment. This is where Danwadaag area based approach, informed by the specific needs and vulnerabilities of displacement-affected communities in urban context, can complement resilience response by investing in early solutions processes. ODI/HPG, The 2017 pre-famine response in Somalia; Progress on reform? 2019.

5. Program support and capacity development
Adapt durable solutions programing to prepare and manage drought-induced displacement in urban context
Urban preparedness and early response in larger hubs to increase absorption capacity of IDPs influx: for instance programmes in areas where affected southern agro-pastoralist will arrive (i.e Bay and Bakool), need to pivot existing funding to support preparedness in urban centres as arrivals intensify in the coming weeks/ months
Scale up cash response to be used as safety net programmes and continue to strengthen community resilience to prevent further displacement
Social inclusion and protection: programmatic ability to devise inclusive interventions
Coordinate with development actors and local authorities on surge capacity and scale up of access to services complementing ongoing DS programing
Policy Dialogue
Program support and capacity development
FSNAU April 2019: rural livelihoods in southern Somalia including Bay/Bakool Agropastoral and Southern Agropastoral of Hiran, although the impact is less severe compared to central and northern regions.
Provide solutions in urban contexts to increase absorption capacity and support urban preparedness as majority of those displaced are moving into urban centres
Most of the IDPs are from poor, low status, southern Somali agricultural communities, such as the Digil-Mirifle and Somali Bantu. The presence of the IDPs is generally tolerated by host communities because they serve as a useful pool of cheap labor. But they are treated as guests with limited rights, who “belong”’ to distant home territories. This exclusionary discourse targeting IDPs is one of the most sensitive and potentially explosive issues in Somalia today, especially as the IDPs are likely to remain permanent residents in cities dominated by certain clans.
Social relations are consistently aggravated by perceived and/or real disparities in access to opportunities and by heightened competition over that access.

6. Program support and capacity development
Government led - community centric response
Government led area based (cross-sectoral), collaborative programming that takes account of the specific needs of displacement-affected communities and uses participatory approaches to engage and empower communities/ self help groups
Build on DS programs that cut across humanitarian/ development and state building sectors to prevent displacement and invest in early solutions
Coordinate within existing structures at Federal and state levels and involve private sector and diaspora – not only through humanitarian bodies such as HCT and ICCG where government and local authorities are not represented
Continue to strengthen the capacity and leadership of local authorities and FGS to manage drought and displacement in the search for durable solutions
Policy Dialogue
Program support and capacity development