1. Goldratt’s Thinking Process and Systems Thinking
James R. Burns
Spring 2017

2. THEORY OF CONSTRAINTS: GOLDRATT
1. Identify the system constraints
2. Decide how to exploit the system constraints
3. Subordinate everything else to that decision
4. Elevate the system constraints
5. When this creates new constraints, go back to step 1

3. Reference
Dettmer, H. William, Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints, ASQ, 1997.
Dettmer,H. William, Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints--Revised, ASQ, 2007.

4. THE ISSUES ARE: What to change? What to change to?
{What is the core problem?}
What to change to?
{Where to look for the breakthrough idea?}
How to effect the change?
{How to bridge from a breakthrough idea to a full solution?}

5. Goldratt’s TP (Thinking Process)
An excellent methodology to facilitate sessions during the initiation phase (definition and conceptualization stage) of a project

6. Strategy for change
Create the tree
Critique the tree

7. Why trees?? To get a complete picture of what is going on
To model all of the causation involved
To see what is related to what
To identify the core problem
To validate a proposed injection

8. What to change? Team constructs a current reality tree (CRT)
Team starts by listing all undesirable effects (UDE’s)
Team inter-relates these by use of a tree, called a CRT
In the current reality tree, the team traces UDE’s back to a core problem (CP)

9. EXAMPLES OF UDE’s Due dates are often missed
It is difficult to respond to urgent demands
There is too much expediting
Inventory levels are too high
There are frequent material shortages
Safety stocks are inadequate

10. Symptoms, Root Causes & a Core Problem
Rather than reacting to symptoms, we should be finding root causes
We consider undesirable effects to be symptoms
We look for a “common cause” that is the source for most of the undesirable effects

11. A CRT for software development
Only 28% of software projects are successful—on-time, within budget and with full functionality
Software projects are always the slowest projects to be completed
TI merged two divisions of the firm….
It took 6 months to do all logistics
It took 18 months to reconcile all of the software differences

12. Example Current Reality Tree
Managing Software
Development Projects
Is rarely successful
Software Development
Projects take too long
Software Development
Projects cost too much
For each arrow, there is a sentence that can be constructed. For the arrow on the left, the sentence reads, “If Software Development Projects take too long” then “Managing Software Development Projects is rarely successful.” The sentence associated with the second arrow reads “If Software Development Projects cost too much” then “Managing Software Development Projects is rarely successful.”
Software Development
Projects have quality
problems A

13. Users are untrained and not sophisticated
Software Development
Projects take too long
Software Development
Projects cost too much
Fixing changes
takes time
There are many late-
breaking changes to
requirements
Fixing changes
costs money
The ellipsis or oval changes the way the sentences are read. In the above, If “Fixing changes takes time” and “There are many late-breaking changes to requirements” then “Software development projects take too long.” Notice that the ellipsis causes the anding of the the two subordinate boxes. This is to say, the contents of both boxes must be true in order for the event in the box above to occur.
Users discover new
features they want
included in the software
Users don’t
know what
they want
Users change
their
minds
Users are untrained and not sophisticated

14. Users are untrained and not sophisticated
Late in the lifecycle
Users discover new
features they want
included in the software
Users are untrained and not sophisticated
Project Managers
Do not train and teach
Users about software
development A
Project Managers do not
utilize “early discovery”
techniques with users
Software is of poor
quality and takes
Much time/money to debug
Software Project Managers
do not encourage use of
walkthroughs through
testing
Software Project Managers
Are poorly trained
And unaware of pitfalls in
Software projects

15. We conclude….
That the core problem is with poorly trained software project managers

16. The next construct is the Evaporating Cloud {EC}
The Evaporating Cloud is used to address the question…
What to Change to….

17. Core problems are studied further by use of an evaporating cloud
Evaporating clouds (ECs) will surface assumptions
Breaking an assumption leads to a breakthrough called an injection
At this point the team is unconcerned with the practicality of the injection

18. What is an injection? a solution to the core problem
a strategy that will mitigate all of the UDE’s
Injections that appear impossible to achieve are called flying pigs

19. Example Evaporating Cloud
Training takes
much time/money,
requires trainers
Project training is
long and arduous
Many well-trained
Project Managers
Are available now
Project Manager
expertise is
required now
Instant
Project Manager
expertise required

20. What have we learned from the EC above?
Many expert project managers are needed now
Creating well-trained project managers takes time
Instant project management expertise is required now
SOLUTION: Expert system for project management

21. INJECTION Create a PM expert system
An advisory system that novice Project Managers can seek and obtain advice from.

22. What to change to?
From the CRT and ECs, a Future Reality Tree (FRT) is constructed
One purpose of the Future Reality Tree is to validate that the injection will achieve the desired effects (DE’s)

23. Examples of DE’s Due dates are rarely missed
Demands are met 99% of the time
There is little expediting
Inventory levels are low
There are no material shortages
Production lead times are short or satisfactory
Due date perf. is high
Customers rely on quick responses
There is little expediting
Inventory levels are reduced significantly
Material is available when needed

24. Building the Future Reality Tree
Start by turning the UDE’s around and writing them with a positive tone as DE’s
Place DE’s at the top of the limbs in the FRT
At the bottom of the FRT place the injection
Building the FRT is a two-phase process
Build considering only positive, ideal links, and assuming win/win strategies
Add negative loops later

25. What to change to, Cont’d?
The idea here is to get a picture of how an injection (a breakthrough) might affect the overall performance of the system.
The Future Reality Tree is the validation that a collection of injections will turn all of the UDE’s into DE’s

26. Future Reality Tree for our example
Managing Software
Development Projects
Is usually successful
Software Development
Projects take reasonable
lengths of time
Software Development
Projects aren’t too
costly
Software Development
Projects create quality
products A

27. Users are more trained and sophisticated
Software Development
Projects take too long
Software Development
Projects take reasonable
Lengths of time
Software Development
Projects take too long
Software Development
Projects cost too much
Software Development
Projects cost too much
Software Development
Projects aren’t too
costly
Fixing changes
takes time
There are many late-
breaking changes to
requirements
There are many late-
breaking changes to
requirements
There are few late-
breaking changes to
requirements
Fixing changes
costs money
Fixing changes
costs money
Fixing changes
costs money
Users discover no new
features they want
included in the software
Users discover new
features they want
included in the software
Users discover new
features they want
included in the software
Users don’t
know what
they want
Users don’t
know what
they want
Users don’t
know what
they want
Users rarely
change their
minds
Users change
their
minds
Users change
their
minds
Users are more trained and sophisticated
Users are untrained and not sophisticated
Users are untrained and not sophisticated

28. Users are trained and sophisticated
Late in the lifecycle
Users rarely discover
features they want
included in the software
Users are trained and sophisticated
Project Managers
Do train and teach
Users about software
development A
Project Managers
utilize “early discovery”
techniques with users
Software is of good
quality and dubbing
is inexpensive and quick
Software Project Managers
encourage use of
walkthroughs through
testing
Software Project Managers
use an expert system
To avoid pitfalls in
Software projects

29. Last Question…
How to cause the change?
We will use two more trees

30. How to cause the change? The prerequisite tree The transition tree
These help to get buy-in
These help us to develop a strategy for achieving a flying pig (an injection that appears impossible to achieve or implement)

31. The Prerequisite Tree Place INJECTIONS at the top
List the obstacles that are expected
For each obstacle that is overcome, an intermediate objective is achieved
Each obstacle gives rise to an intermediate objective
The intermediate objectives need to be sequenced
The prerequisite tree does the sequencing

32. OBSTACLE INTERM. OBJECTIVE
No well-defined ES
Architecture
There are many commercially-available ES Shells
Pick an appropriate
ES Architecture
Select an appropriate ES Shell

33. The Prerequisite Tree, Cont’d
Takes an impediment or obstacle approach
This approach enables dissection of the implementation task into an array of interrelated, well-defined, intermediate objectives

34. The Prerequisite Tree Our Example
Create Project Management Expert System
Objective
Test Project Management Expert System A

35. Construct Project Management Expert System
No well-defined ES
Architecture
No well-defined PM
Body of Knowledge
Codify PM Body of Knowledge into Expert System Shell
Decide upon
Expert System
Architecture
Obtain PM Body of Knowledge
Select Expert System Shell

36. The Transition Tree We know where we stand
We identified the core problem
We found an injection (one or more) that produces the desired effects
We found the milestones of the journey--the intermediate objectives (IO’s)
The question now is What specific actions must we take?

37. The Transition Tree, Cont’d
We must focus, not on what we plan to do but on what we plan to accomplish
For each IO, a specific action or set of actions are determined and initiated
Causing a specific change in reality is the imperative
The transition tree provides a ROAD MAP for getting from here to there!

38. The Four-Element Transition Tree
Expected
effect
Condition of
reality
Unfulfilled
need
Specific
action

39. Expected
effect
Specific
action
Condition of
reality
Unfulfilled
need
Unfilled
need
Condition of
reality
Unfulfilled
need
Specific
action

40. The Transition Tree Our Example
Create Project Management Expert System
Test Project Management Expert System A

41. That’s it for Goldratt’s Critical Thinking
To get the full version, you have to go to New Hampshire (Goldratt Institute) , spend two weeks and $10,000
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