1. Scenario Planning Process
RSENR
University of Vermont
“There is this totally absurd notion that knowledge proceeds in neat steps from known facts through logical deduction.”
Edward de Bono
August 6, 2019
Susan Stickley
Stratus, Inc.
Susan Stickley
Stratus, Inc.

2. The Elements of Strategy
Who We Are
Success Formula: Distinctive Competencies
Who We Want to Be
Vision: Strategic Intent
Where We Have to Work
Scenarios: The Business Environment
Kees van der Heijden
Stratus, Inc

3. Defining Scenarios
“Scenarios are stories about the ways that the world might turn out tomorrow…
…that can help us recognize and adapt to changing aspects of our current environment”
Peter Schwartz
Stratus, Inc

4. Benefits of Scenario Planning
Leads to robust decisions in the face of uncertainty;
Allows for more flexibility in a changing world;
Provides a means to imagine and plan for risks (risk mitigation);
Encourages creativity and innovation;
Allows for the creation of a common vision;
Helps divergent views come into alignment.
Stratus, Inc

5. Scenarios are Not Forecasts
Planning for One Future
Planning for A Range of Futures
I wonder whether we want to promise “Planning for Any Future”. Wouldn’t it be better to say, “Planning for a Range of Futures”. Or “Several Futures”?
Viewpoint: Multiple forces can affect future
Viewpoint: Past largely determines future
Source: Global Business Network

6. Strategic Focus
Core Strategic Question that is the basis for scenario exploration.
Developed from strategic themes that emerge through data gathering.
Unique, Distinctive Capability
Strategic Challenges and Opportunities
Growth
Sustainability …
Visions of Success
Relevancy filter for scenario content development
Stratus, Inc

7. Scenarios employ “Outside-In” Thinking
Vision
Strategies
Competencies
High Org Influence
Scenario thinking starts in the outer circle –the contextual environment that will shape your choices.
STEM Advancements
Innovation in Environmental Education
Tech Enablers
Higher Education
University of Vermont
Stakeholders (students, faculty, alumni…)
RSENR & its Strategic Focus
Some Org Influence
THE TRANSACTONAL ENVIRONMENT
Less or No Org Influence
Social
Technological
Economic
Environment
Political
CONTEXTUAL ENVIRONMENT
Stratus, Inc

8. Basic Work Flow Planning and Data Gathering (1+ month)
Map out Strategic Planning Process
Orient Ourselves: Data Gathering
- Interviews, Survey and Analysis
- Identify Key Strategic Themes and Critical Uncertainties
- Frame Strategic Focus (question)
Output: Strategic Context Summary Document, Strategic Focus
Critical Uncertainties
- Compiled and brought into the first workshop
Scenario and Strategy Development (2+ months)
Create the Scenarios - Scenario Development Workshop (Oct)
1 day workshop over 2, ½ days
Write the Stories - Scenario Narrative Writing and Research
Output: Scenario Narrative Package
Explore the Scenarios - Strategic Implications Workshop (Dec)
1 ½ day workshop over 2, consecutive days
Output: First Draft Strategic Plan
Stratus, Inc

9. Basic Work Flow Finalize Strategic Plan (1+ months)
(internally driven, collaboratively finalized)
Flesh-Out Strategies - Session and additional task work
Create scope/focus, measures to track progress)
Finalize Strategic Plan (1st Quarter, 2020)
Output: Strategic Plan Document Update
Transition to Implementation
Build Adaptive Capability (optional)
Design Process and Implement within RSENR for Ongoing Strategic Vigilance
Monitoring Process of External Environment
Codified Process for Strategic Dialogue Sessions
Output: Process to maintain a living, adaptive Strategic Plan
Stratus, Inc

10. Roles and Responsibilities
RSENR Leadership
Creator and Owner of Strategy Content
Preparatory work prior to workshops (up to 2 hours)
Participate in Strategic Planning Workshops
Lead Implementation of the Strategic Plan
Core Team (3 to 5 individuals and Susan)
Overseer of the Scenario Planning Process
Focused on work to be done between sessions
(primary writers/editors of scenarios and Strategic Plan content)
Glue of overall process
RECOMMENDATION: clarify individual roles and responsibilities
Stratus, Inc

11. What does success look like at the end of this process?
Stratus, Inc