1. Regional pathways of substances – where do we need to go?
Hans von Storch, Director Systems Analysis and Modelling in the Institute for Coastal Reseach
Strategic aspects of research at IfK (MARCOPOLI, CO1)
The lead project – emissions, transport and depositions
The lead project – concentrations in human blood

2. Institute for Coastal Research of GKSS Research Center
Key research questions addressed by the GKSS coastal research program are
How is global change affecting the coastal system?
What is the present state and present change of the coastal zone?
How can we reliably and cost-effectively monitor coastal processes?

3. What is the coast –
Somewat vagueley defined
The source of anthropogenic materials such as POPs, heavy metals, nutrients
Affected by climate variabiloity and change

4. CO1: Describing the regional coastal environment with a modelling system
Reconstruction of past developments
Construction of plausible future developments (scenarios)
Tens of years
Detection and attribution of anthropogenic changes
Influence of changing global system as well as changing regional pressures
Natural and anthropogenic factors

5. Purpose –
Analysis of ongoing change (of statistics – i.e., means, range of variability, extreme events) (detection)
Analysis of sensitivity of environmental system to human interference (attribution)
Construction of plausible futures (scenarios)

6. Understanding of processes …
… is not the purpose of our work, but a requirement for achieving our goals, which are the understanding of the dynamics of the system, the present state and change of the system, its sensitivity to disturbances and an outlook of possible futures.
… we do process studies, development of parameterizations and of new models if it is needed for the achievement of our goals.

7. Relevant aspects Regional atmosphere (emphasis: wind)
Marginal seas (currents, water level, waves)
Coastal seas
Pathways and deposition of matter
Water quality
Morphodynamics
Ecosystems

8. Umweltbelastung mit anthropgenen Stoffen
Das Beispiel „Blei“ –
Emissionen und depositionen in Europa,
„GKSS lead project“ An attempt for reconstructing emissions, pathways and depositions of gasoline lead in Europe, Hans von Storch
After decades long regulation of the emission of anthropogenic substances into the environment, a retrospective analysis of these measures should be done. As a first example we have considered the case of gasoline lead. With the help of a regional climate model, NCEP re-analyses, spatially disaggregated lead emissions from road traffic, and various local data, an attempt was made to reconstruct the airborne pathway and deposition of gasoline lead in Europe since During the 1960s the emission grew exponentially until first regulation was introduced in the early 1970s by the German government. In 1985 the European countries began to phase out lead in gasoline.
It turned out that the regulations were mostly successful in ecological terms while not having exerted an undue load on the economy. For instance, the emissions in Hamburg (Germany) fell by 90% from the mid 1970s until the mid 1990s. The lead concentrations in plants fell by about two thirds, and the lead concentration in human blood by about one half. However, in coastal ecosystems (e.g. mussels) the lead concentrations seem to remain on a relatively high level.
A methodical result of the study is that reconstruction of regional environmental change is doable with dynamical regional environmental models (at least: climate, passive tracers). Past political and economic evolutions may be assessed quantitatively by a retrospective analysis. Scenarios of environmental impact of possible future socio-economic developments are possible to be constructed. Specifically, regional atmospheric modelling allows for dynamical downscaling consistent with large scale forcing.
Talk presented at IOW Warnemünde, 7. Februar 2001,
NCAR, ?
University of Oklahoma, Norman, 13. April 2001
Umweltbelastung mit anthropogenen Stoffen Das Beispiel „Blei“ und seine Emission und Verbleib in Europa, Tag der Geowissenschaften, Hamburg, 26. August 2002
Koebenhavn, kemisk institiut, 29.April 2004

9. Institut für Küstenforschung
I f K
Motivation
Prototypical example of a reconstructing of flow and deposition of anthropogenic matter on the regional scale ( km).
Lead is chosen because the substance is during its aerial transport almost inert – that is, the problem is technically less challenging than with, say, mercury or POPs.
Lead is also chosen because of the highly variable emissions, with an unabated increase until about 1970 and several political regulations in the 1970s and 1980s, which ended with the out-phasing of lead in gasoline.

10. Institut für Küstenforschung
I f K
Lead emission
Total gasoline sale
Consumption of gasoline in Germany (mio.litres) and associated lead emissions (tons)
Political regulation in 1971, 1975 and 1985.

11. Sources of lead emissions, 1955-1995
Costa-Cabral, 2001
Sources of lead emissions,

12. Institut für Küstenforschung
I f K
Blood-lead levels (mg/l) from various studies in Germany, 1979–1997
Data source: Heinzow 1998

13. Institut für Küstenforschung
I f K
Lead concentration (mg/kg) in Blue Mussels (Mytilus Edulis) in the North Sea,
* Sample stations: Bantsbalje ( 53°34’/ 7°01’); Borkum ( 53°35.4’/ 6°47.84’); Cuxhaven Leitdamm ( 53°53.05’/ 8°41.03’); Elmshörn Rinne ( 53°29.05’/ 6°54.00’); Mellumbalje ( 53°41.09’/ 8 °08.08’)
Data source: Ministry of Ecology of Niedersachsen 1999

14. Estimated lead emissions
1955
1995
1955
Estimated lead emissions
(from Pacyna and Pacyna, 2000)
1975

15. Atmospheric
concentration

16. 1995
Calculated depositions
deposition

17. Chemical / ecological dimension

18. Institut für Küstenforschung
I f K

19. Institut für Küstenforschung
I f K
model estimate

20. Institut für Küstenforschung
I f K
Schulte-Rentrop et al., 2004

21. Estimated lead concentration in the soil
Change from
Estimated lead concentration in the soil
Schulte-Rentrop et al., 2004

22. Institut für Küstenforschung
I f K
Lead concentration in the Elbe water
Schulte-Rentrop et al., 2004

23. Conclusions - I
Reconstruction of regional environmental change is doable with dynamical regional environmental models.
The environmental impact of past political and economic evolutions may be assessed quantitatively by a retrospective analysis. Scenarios of environmental impact of possible future socio-economic developments are possible to be constructed.
Lead reduction in gasoline was successful in reducing the presence of lead in the atmosphere, in terrestrial ecosystems and in men.
In aquatic ecosystems the increase of concentrations has been halted at a level well above the natural level. (How long is the residence time in sediment?)
Institut für Küstenforschung
I f K

24. Enhanced levels of lead in human blood - detailed study for Germany
Institut für Küstenforschung
I f K

25. Institut für Küstenforschung
I f K
A simple dynamical relationship between three variables, namely the emission of lead LEt in an area AE in the year t, the atmospheric concentration LCt in an area AC in the year t and the mean concentration of lead in human blood LHBt in the year t in the area AC.
LCt+1 =  LCt +  LEt+1 (5)
LHBt+1 =  LHBt +  LCt+1 +  (6)
Equation (6) is equivalent to
(LHBt+1 - ) =  (LHBt - ) +  LCt+1 (7)
with  = /(1-). Formulation (7) describes the dynamics of “anomalies” LHBt- relative to a “normal” state  towards which the system converges as soon as the forcing LCt ceases if <1. For 0 <  <1 the air concentration approaches  asymptotically with a time scale of 1/(1-) if LCt=0.

26. Estimated mean, 90%ile and 95%ile lead concentrations in human blood in Münster, according to (6/7) and (3/4 (red solid lines). A level of more than 150 g/l are considered in Germany as potentially harmful for children and women in child-bearing age. For other adults the limit for serious concern is set to 250 g/l.

27. Institut für Küstenforschung
I f K
Three scenarios of reduction of lead used as anti-knock in gasoline in Germany. The big black symbols describe the actual concentrations.

28. Institut für Küstenforschung
I f K
Scenarios for mean lead concentrations (g/l) in human blood, as derived by the Münster model (M, red, continuous) and for the Germany model (G, blue, dashed). Scenario 1 describes an evolution without regulation (i.e., ongoing use of 0.6 g/l lead in gasoline in Germany, upper curves). In scenario 2 no unleaded gasoline has been introduced in Germany in 1985 (middle curves), and in scenario 3, regulation was instituted in Germany already in 1961 (lower curves). The reconstructed lead levels in blood are also given as open (Germany model) and full circles (Münster model).

29. Conclusions - II
It is possible to reconstruct atmospheric lead concentrations and blood lead levels using a simple regression model.
It is possible to estimate lead concentrations in human blood using only lead emissions.
Reducing the lead content in gasoline was a successful environmental policy to limit human health risks.

30. Publications
Pacyna, J. M. and E. G.Pacyna, 2000: Atmospheric emissions of anthropogenic lead in Europe: improvements, updates, historical data and projections GKSS Report 2000/3
Hagner, C., 2000: European regulations to reduce lead emissions from automobiles - did they have an economic impact on the German gasoline and automobile markets? Reg. Environ. Change 1: (earlier version as GKSS Report 99/E/30)
Hagner, C., 2002: Regional and Long-Term Patterns of Lead Concentrations in Riverine, Marine and Terrestrial Systems and Humans in Northwest Europe, Water, Air and Soil Pollution 134,1-40
A. Schulte-Rentrop, M. Costa-Cabral and R. Vink, 2004: Lead contamination of the Elbe catchment via atmospheric transport over four decades ( )
von Storch, H., M. Costa-Cabral, C. Hagner, F. Feser, J. Pacyna, E. Pacyna, and S.Kolb, 2003: Four decades of gasoline lead emissions and control policies in Europe: A retrospective assessment, The Science of the Total Environment (STOTEN) 311,
von Storch, H. and C. Hagner, 2004: Controlling lead concentrations in human blood by regulating the use of lead in gasoline. A case study for Germany. Ambio 33: