1. 3.1 Value added cryosphere products and links with users
Árni Snorrason
Jeff Key
Vasily Smolyanitsky
GCW SG 6th session, November 2018, Davos, Switzerland

2. Doc 3: Global Cryosphere Watch : Preoperational Phase Plan :….
The highest priorities for the GCW Preoperational Phase are:
(1) Developing and publishing value-added cryosphere products relevant to water resource and ecosystems management, to safety (e.g. transportation), to understanding natural hazards and risks, to energy production, etc., addressing specific needs at regional and sub-regional level
Tasks for the item (following agenda):
identify target users, by cryosphere component: e.g. PRCC, statement on climate, etc
map available, desired, required products and contributors to their development,
ensure institutional support for sustaining agreed products;
Cryosphere Conference 2020 as a milestone.

3. Polar RCC GCW ArcRCC-N nodes Future TPCC-N major domain
Future AntRCC-N domain
The concept of RCCs is being extended to serve the unique requirements of polar and high-mountain regions, namely the Arctic, Antarctic and the Third Pole region. As a first step, the WMO Executive Council Panel of Experts on Polar and High Mountain Observations, Research and Services (EC-PHORS) is guiding the implementation of the Arctic Polar RCC-Network.  For more details, see RCC implementation in the Polar Regions.

4. ArcRCC-N milestones for 2018
Feb’18: ArcRCC coordinators meeting, Oslo, NMI
Jan-Apr’18: Pre-PARCOF-1 bi-weekly teleconf.,
15-16 May’18: PARCOF-1 (“physical”), Ottawa, ECCC
Summary for JFMA’18
LRF (outlook) for JJAS’18
Sep-Oct’18:Pre-PARCOF-2 bi-weekly teleconf.
30 Oct’18: PARCOF-2 (“virtual”), led by NMI
Summary for JJAS’18
LRF (outlook) for NDJ’18/19
Jan’19 (virtual):
Summary for ONDJ’18/19
update of LRF for FMA’19
Feb’19: ArcRCC coordinators meeting, TBD
Mar-May’19:Pre-PARCOF-3 monthly/bi-weekly teleconf.
8-10 May’19: PARCOF-3 (“physical”), Rovaniemi, FMI
Summary for FMA’19
LRF (outlook) for JJAS’19
Consensus
Statement #1
Consensus
Statement #2
Update of Consensus
Statement #2
Consensus
Statement #3

5. PARCOF-1 SUMMARY REPORT
Identification of Users !
3. Feedback from Users
3.1 User Needs
….. The shippers …utilize …climate data to look at trends to support their decision-making and national weather and ice information for daily operations…..
The ability ….to go to one Pan-Arctic website for all their information needs …. would be ideal.
Indigenous users noted …higher resolution temporal and spatial scales are needed …at regional community scales. Community governments use outlooks 3 months in advance, but hunters start planning 3 weeks in advance.
Indigenous knowledge holders still rely on their knowledge and will draw on additional information to help augment their decisions…..
Lakes and rivers are also important for ice road regional travel and shipping, and local travel for hunting, fishing and sources of drinking water.
Data access is still a challenge. Internet connections and speeds are limited, so products cannot be large file sizes. ….

6. ArcRCC Network Meeting, May 17, 2018
Identification of Users !
1. Reflections on the PARCOF-1, Round table …
Meeting with Users
....
Need to develop a strategy and team approach for how to reach out to users. Identify the theme of the PARCOF and start early and systematically reach out to the users.
Develop a matrix of our current users and who we have contacts with.
It was important for the Indigenous organizations to be invited from the outset of the ArcRCC
There was a discussion around having a balance of users – i.e. more terrestrial, aquiculture, tourism, keep it open….. The first PARCOF theme was shipping. A Terrestrial theme could be considered for PARCOF-3. All PARCOFs can be unique…
Need to focus on the right levels of users. Hunters at the community scale will not likely use our products….However, hamlet/ municipal/ provincial/ state/ territorial decision-makers could use products for policy & planning purposes. ….

7. PARCOF-1 SUMMARY REPORT
Mapping products !
3.3 Feedback on the Seasonal Summaries
Users liked the ranking temperature and precipitation graphics and found them fairly easy to understand. ..
Summaries are good for monitoring climate change and understanding larger scale trends for adaptation strategies.
Also good in preparing for resource development and environmental assessments.
…using 30-years is not as relevant as the last 10 years since there has been so much change.
Regional users …find seasonal summaries on a more regional, local scale more useful
Seasonal summaries and time series that describe how things are changing, to compare to the previous year(s) would be helpful. For example, the sea-ice broke up 2 weeks early/later, or the sea-ice was thicker/thinner.
Users would like to see seasonal summaries on changes/trends in snow, fast-ice, locations of multi-year ice, sea-ice freeze-up and break-up, storm statistics (frequency and duration, track, maximum winds), wind direction and velocity, wave climatology and wave height analysis, extreme events, permafrost, lakes and rivers. Russia and the Global Cryospheric Watch identified some current products/climatology’s that are available

8. ArcRCC Network Meeting, May 17, 2018
Mapping products !
2. ArcRCC Demonstration Phase
Completed a milestone in the implementation ….of …the ArcRCC.
ArcRCC Summer 2018 Consensus Statement
Need to have a … discussion about the consistency of output products (geographical coverage and colours) and the different needs of the …end users.
…need for a common geographical coverage of the Arctic to ensure consistency amongst the products and a circle (e.g. 50N) is the easiest boundary ...
Need to develop a knowledge translation/communications team that works and translates between the Met/Ice services and users ….
Suggest having WMO communications more involved in helping to draft/edit and communicate the consensus statement and the press release.
Everyone, communities and/or industry will ask for more than what we can…. We need to …tell.. what is possible with current monitoring and modelling and what is not.
The timing of the forecast (April or May). Modellers want a May product, closer to the summer, but users at sea would like it in April for getting ready for summer operations.

9. ArcRCC Network Meeting, May 17, 2018
PRCCs and GCW, JCOMM !
4. Global Cryospheric Watch (GCW), the International Ice Charting Working Group (IICWG) ….and JCOMM
GCW is the authoritative resource for cryospheric climate information, it does not include forecasting and is not currently operational, but it is being targeted for ~2020.
GCW aims to help with experience in observations, integrated product development and dissemination through the WMO networks. All 3 GCW WG and corresponding Teams including the Cryonet, Snow Watch and Portal are coming up with best practices for integrating observations and will provide that link to community-based monitoring….
IICWG-19 - ….report on the ArcRCC, feedback on the Summer 2018 consensus statement and associated products is expected.
…..JCOMM could offer expertise in marine climate and forecast areas of interest. There were comments during the meeting indicating an interest to include parameters such as; waves, marine winds (frequency of alert thresholds), SST’s, storm surge and others. Strengthening the relationship with the JCOMM expert team is recommended.

10. Experience from PARCOF-2, October 30, “virtual”, led by NMI
Based on several iterations for summaries and outlooks (30 Sep-30 Oct)
Seasonal summary for JJAS’18 (with monthly interval) :
2m air temperature & precipitation by stations and reanalysis
Sea ice CT, SoD from ice charting , ice edge&extent from PM
Sea ice thickness and volume from reanalysis
Terrestrial snow – snow cover duration and MAMJ snow depth (didn’t go to final doc)
Seasonal LRF for NDJ’18/19 (atm.) & for M’19 (sea ice):
Validation of MME LRF for JJAS’18
MME probability forecast for surface temperature
MME probability forecast for precipitation
Forecast for the 2018 Fall freeze-up date and anomaly
March 2019 probability of sea ice concentration greater than 15%CanSIPS
Data sources:
AARI (incl. AARI/CIS/NIC ice charts archive), NSIDC, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, DMI HyCOM/PIOMAS, Terrestrial Snow Cover, Arctic Report Card 2018, ECCC multi-model ensemble LRF , ECCC CanSIPS
Discussion on ArcRCC-N data portal (
No end-users involved
Summarized as a WMO “Consensus Statement for the Arctic Winter Season Outlook”
All PPTs and docs published at ArcRCC-N data portal

11. Example slides from PARCOF-2 summary: Atmosphere

12. Sea ice: ice extent, thickness and volume

13. Sea ice: ice conditions and ice edge:

15. Way forward (items to discuss):
Provide access to timely observations for marine environment beyond ice charts:
snow on ice and ice thickness from drifting buoys (YOPP)
sea ice phenomena at coastal stations
sea ice parameters from space for the Arc/AntRCC
Provide access to timely observations or trackers for terrestrial environment beyond weather:
snow, permafrost, glaciers
river and lake ice
Map GCW products with RCCs predefined seasonal periods
Map GCW products with RCCs predefined presentations (coverage, colour, scale)
Map GCW products with RCCs reference periods
Develop products uncertainties
Interaction/integration of resources with JCOMM,/YOPP/INTAROS