1. COM546 : Frameworks and Theories: Diffusion and Adoption
Kathy E. Gill
27 January 2009

2. Theories (recap) (1/2) Scientific Humanistic Why: Discover the “truth”
Create meaning
Values:
Objectivity
“Emancipation”
Purpose:
Determine universal laws
Provide rules for interpretation

3. Theories (recap) (2/2) Scientific Humanistic Research Methods:
Quantitative: experiment, survey
Qualitative: ethnography, textual analysis
Judged by:
Explains data
Predicts future
Testable hypothesis
Practicality
Explains human behavior
Clarifies values
Consensus
Ability to reform society

4. Two Theories of Mediated Communication
Shannon-Weaver
“Transmission model” or “hypodermic model
Osgood & Schramm
“Circular model” that stresses the social nature of communication

5. Thinking About Rogers and Christensen …

6. Linear innovation-diffusion theory
The process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system.
Rogers, 1995, page 5

7. Elements
Innovation
Social system
Time
Communications channels

8. Innovation
An idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption

9. Communication
A process in which participants create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding

10. Time
Source

11. Infographic credited to NYT

12. Social System
A set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal.
Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.

13. Innovation-Decision Process
The mental process through which an individual passes : from knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)

14. Rogers: Five steps of adoption
Knowledge
Persuasion
Decision (adopt or reject)
Implementation
Confirmation

15. Critical Mass
Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.”

16. Adopter categories Innovators Early adopters Early majority
Late majority
Laggards

17. Forecast: US Household Technology Adoption, 2005-2010
Forrester Reports. July 2005, Data Overview “The State Of Consumers And Technology: Benchmark 2005”

18. The Five-Year Forecast: Household Devices, Access
July 2008 “Benchmark 2008: Forecast Growth Of Devices And Access In The US”
The Five-Year Forecast: Household Devices, Access

19. The Five-Year Forecast: Personal Devices
July 2008 “Benchmark 2008: Forecast Growth Of Devices And Access In The US”
The Five-Year Forecast: Personal Devices

20. More than 55% of households will have a DVR by 2011?
Source: Forrester’s North American Consumer Technology Adoption Study 2006 Benchmark Survey

21. Technological Innovations
Hardware - the tool that embodies the technology as a material or physical object.
Software - the knowledge base for the tool

22. For additional thought …
Increasing capacity w/out adding wires (telegraph). Parallels today?
Grey v Bell …. Jobs v Gates? …. ? v Google?
What is today’s “railroad” sector?
Price models: Bell’s renting the phone, IBM’s renting the mainframe, cellphone contracts … what do they have in common?
Increasing capacity without adding wires – challenge from telegraph to telephone – challenge for broadband
Parallels between grey and bell & andreesen and gates
What is the corollary to the railroads re adoption of technologies today?
Price models : bell’s “renting” the phone … IBM’s “renting” the computer … Constant software upgrades …
Suppression of a patent

23. Thinking About Rogers and Christensen … we’ll talk about disruptive technologies

24. Credits
Presentation by Kathy E. CC share-and-share alike, non-commercial use
“S-curve” from view05/keycomms/