1. Measurement of trade facilitation level between China and Thailand in the context of "one belt and one road" and its impact on trade flows between the two countries
Reporter: Xiaobo Yin

2. CONTENTS 01 02 03 04 05 The background and significance of the topic
Characteristics of Trade Development
between China and Thailand 02
Promotion of Trade Facilitation
between China and Thailand 03
Measurement of Trade Facilitation between
China and Thailand and Its Impact on Trade 04
Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 05

3. 01 The background and significance of the topic●
The background and significance of the topic 01
● With the deepening development of economic globalization, the impact of traditional tariff and non-tariff barriers on international trade has been decreasing. However, inefficient trade, as an invisible barrier to market access, has become increasingly prominent. People begin to seek more fairer, standardized and effective trade environment and institutional arrangements. As a result, the concept of "trade facilitation" aiming at eliminating trade resistance and reducing transaction costs has gradually attracted the attention of academia.
● With the further development of the "one belt and one way" initiative and the continuous development of economic and trade cooperation between China and Thailand, a comprehensive and systematic study of the level of trade facilitation and its impact on trade flows between China and Thailand is of great significance for further reducing transaction costs and promoting economic and trade exchanges and economic growth.

4. 02 Characteristics of Trade Development between China and Thailand●
Characteristics of Trade Development between China and Thailand 02
Feature 1. The scale of trade shows an increasing trend.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Thailand Exports to China(Ranking)
271.3
(1)
267.6
268.3
248.3
233.1
(2)
235.8(2)
294.1(1)
Thailand ExportS to Japan(Ranking)
242.4
233.5
219.0
(3)
217.5
197.6
204.2(3)
220.7(3)
Thailand Exports to the US(Ranking)
216.4
226.6
227.1
236.4
236.8
243.4(1)
265.2(2)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Thailand-China(Ranking)
577.9
(2)
639.6
644.4
(1)
633.7
642.2
658.4(1)
741.4(1)
Thailand-Japan(Ranking)
665.1
732.9
629
575.2
508.9
512.8(2)
544.6(2)
Thailand-the US(Ranking)
349.8
(3)
352.6
373.4
382.4
375
364.7(3)
415.4(3)
Thailand export to China, Japan and the United States from 2011 to 2017（Unit: $100 million）
Bilateral trade volume of Thailand with China, Japan and the US from 2011 to 2017 （Unit: $100 million）
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Thailand Imports from China(Ranking)
306.6
(2)
372.0
376.1
385.4
(1)
409.1
422.6（1）
447.3(1)
Thailand Imports from Japan(Ranking)
422.7
499.4
410.0
357.7
311.3
（2）
308.6（2）
323.9(2)
Thailand Imports from the US(Ranking)
133.4
(3)
126.0
146.3
146.0
138.2
（3）
121.3(3)
150.2(3)
After 2013, the bilateral trade volume between China and Thailand surpassed Japan, and China became Thailand's largest trading partner.
Thailand import from China, Japan and the United States from 2011 to 2017 （Unit: $100 million）

5. ●
Year
Bilateral trade volume(Percentage of Thailand's trade)
Thailand Exports to China(Percentage of Thailand's exports)
Thailand Imports from China(Percentage of Thailand's imports)
Trade balance
2011
577.9（12.7%）
271.3（12.0%）
306.6（13.4%）
-35.3
2012
639.6（13.4%）
267.6（11.7%）
372.0（14.9%）
-104.4
2013
644.4（13.6%）
268.3（11.9%）
376.1（15.2%）
-107.8
2014
633.6（14.0%）
248.3（11.0%）
385.4（16.9%）
-137.1
2015
642.2（15.6%）
233.1（11.1%）
409.1（20.3%）
-176.0
2016
658.4（16.1%）
235.8（11.0%）
422.6（21.6%）
-186.8
2017
741.4（16.1%）
294.1（12.5%）
447.3（19.9%）
-153.2
Summary of bilateral trade between China and Thailand, （Unit: $100 million）
Thailand's trade deficit in goods with China increased steadily from 2011 to 2016, reaching US$18.68 billion in 2016, accounting for 47.2% of the total deficit, which makes China became the largest deficit country in Thailand's foreign trade. Thailand's trade deficit with China dropped somewhat in 2017, but still reached billion US dollars.

6. Feature 2. The structure of trade commodity is stable.●
Feature 2. The structure of trade commodity is stable.
Thai's share of major imports from China.
Thai's share of major exports to China.
Thailand has an absolute advantage in importing manufactured goods from China in 2017, the proportion is as high as 81%. And primary products accounted for a large proportion of Thailand's exports to China, and basically showed an upward trend, accounting for about 75% in Thus, at this stage, the commodity struture of trade between China and Thailand is relatively stable.

7. Feature 3. Trade is interdependent and closely linked.●
Feature 3. Trade is interdependent and closely linked.
1. Trade Integration Index (TII)
Year
China (i) to Thailand (j)
Thailand (j) to China (i)
China (i) and Thailand (j)
2006
0.99
1.45
0.93
2007
1.00
1.56
0.94
2008
1.01
1.33
2009
1.12
2.16
1.03
2010
1.06
1.22
0.96
2011
1.10
1.26
2012
1.30
1.21
1.17
2013
1.13
2014
1.35
0.17
2015
1.55
1.18
1.41
2016
1.63
1.46
2017
1.19
1.38
Average Value
1.23
1.25
Used to reflect the close degree of bilateral trade between the two sides. The larger the value, the closer the trade ties between the two countries are.
2. Trade tightness index (I)
Used to reflect the close degree of bilateral trade between the two sides.
Trade Integration and Trade Tightness Index between China and Thailand,

8. ●
Generally speaking, trade between China and Thailand is interdependent and closely linked, and the degree of close ties is on the rise.

9. 03 Promotion of Trade Facilitation between China and Thailand 02 01 03●
Promotion of Trade Facilitation between China and Thailand 03
In recent years, high-speed rail, airports and ports have been constantly updated and replaced, the construction has been fruitful.
Thailand has a relatively complete transportation network, but the development is slow, it will take time for the construction to achieve results.
Infrastructure 02
China accepted the TFA in September 2015, and has been committed to promoting the construction of trade facilitation infrastructure.
Thailand has very few policies and regulations in this regard.
Agreement on Trade Facilitation (TFA) 01
China is in line with the advanced countries in the world and is building a "single window" to promote "one-stop operation", so as to achieve the world's advanced level.
Thailand has not yet seen the introduction of relevant policies.
Customs Clearance Facilities 03
China has developed rapidly and the scale of transactions has been growing continuously, the relevant laws and regulations are tending to be improved.
Thailand's online trading volume is rising, and the Thai government also attaches great importance to online paperless trading, and has issued regulations to maintain its orderliness.
E-commerce 04
Generally speaking, China's trade facilitation facilities are more perfect than Thailand's.

10. Index System for Measuring Trade Facilitation●
Measurement of Trade Facilitation between China and Thailand and Its Impact on Trade 04
01. Construction of Trade Facilitation Index System
Index System for Measuring Trade Facilitation

11. 02. Data Processing and Weight Determination●
02. Data Processing and Weight Determination
1. Standardization of Secondary Indicators
2. Finding the Arithmetic Mean Value
3. Give weight according to contribution degree
Assignment is made according to the contribution of four first-level indicators to trade flows.
Referring to the research results of Wilson et al., this paper gives weight to TF. Among them, the port efficiency is 61.7%, the customs environment is 6.2%, the institutional environment is 23.0%, and the financial and electronic commerce is 9.1%.

12. ● Year TFI Evaluation Value China Thailand Score Ranking 2008 0.5772 2
0.5836 1
2009
0.5936
0.5942
2010
0.5897
0.6195
2011
0.6014
0.5891
2012
0.5864
0.5884
2013
0.5946
0.5931
2014
0.6111
0.6000
2015
0.6164
2016
0.6179
0.5911
2017
0.6212
0.6071
China-Thailand Trade Facilitation Index (TFA) ,

13. 03. Model and Variable Setting●
03. Model and Variable Setting
1. The classical gravity model
2. Logarithm for empirical analysis
3. By introducing the comprehensive indicators affecting the trade between the two countries, the trade facilitation indicators of China and Thailand and tariffs into the gravity model, an extended gravity model is obtained

14. ●
Explains the expected symbols and data descriptions of variables

15. 04. Other Data Sources and Processing●
04. Other Data Sources and Processing
Year
Gross GDP
($100 million)
Per capita GDP
(US dollars)
China
Thailand
2017
112183
4069
8113.3
5899.4
2016
4070.3
7989.7
5742.3
2015
3992.4
7589
5445
2014
4065.2
6747
5674
2013
4205.3
6075.9
5678.5
2012
3975.6
5413.6
5394.4
2011
3708.8
4382.1
4991.5
2010
3411.1
3677.9
3939.6
2009
2817.1
3315.3
4115.3
2008
2913.8
2460.8
3736.8
Year
Trade volume of China's exports to Thailand
Trade volume of Thailand's exports to China
2017
447.3
294.1
2016
422.6
235.8
2015
409.1
233.1
2014
385.4
248.3
2013
376.1
268.3
2012
372
267.6
2011
306.6
271.3
2010
245.2
214.7
2009
171.5
160.9
2008
202.7
162.2
Gross GDP and per capita GDP of China and Thailand
Trade between China and Thailand (Unit: $100 million)

16. 05. Regression Estimation and Effect Analysis●
05. Regression Estimation and Effect Analysis
In this paper, the equations are solved by stata12 software. The corresponding values of , and linear regression coefficients , and of each coefficient are listed in table below.
The regression results show that trade facilitation is the most attractive source of trade between the two countries. The key to increase the flow of international trade is to improve the level of trade facilitation of each country.

17. 05 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 01. Conclusions●
Conclusions and Policy Recommendations 05
01. Conclusions
1. The implementation of the "one belt and one way" strategy has improved the level of China's trade facilitation.
2. Trade facilitation is the main factor affecting the growth of trade flows between China and Thailand.
3. The level of economic development promotes the growth of trade flows between the two countries by influencing the degree of trade facilitation.
To sum up, improving the level of bilateral trade facilitation between China and Thailand can effectively improve the trade environment, reduce trade costs, and then promote trade growth. Therefore, in the context of "one belt and one road" construction, strengthening infrastructure interconnection and trade facilitation should be a priority area and key direction for China and Thailand to deepen regional economic cooperation. It is also an important way to enhance the level of China-Thailand economic and trade cooperation and consolidate China-Thailand relations.

18. 02. Policy Recommendations
2. Actively improve the terms of trade, strengthen trade infrastructure construction and promote interconnection
02. Policy Recommendations
1. Actively promote policy communication between China and Thailand, strengthen political mutual trust and jointly develop the level of trade facilitation.
2. Actively improve the terms of trade, strengthen trade infrastructure construction and promote interconnection.
3. Seize the opportunity of "one belt and one road" construction tightly, enhance the level of trade facilitation and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.
4. Innovating regional cooperation modes and mechanisms, actively participating in relevant actions of international organizations, and enhancing the voice in the formulation of national trade rules.

19. THANK YOU FOR LISTENING
Date: 26 June 2019