1. A New Methodology for Frame Building and Sample Design for the State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP)
For
Joint Statistical Meetings
July 29, 2019 | Denver, CO By
Edgardo Cureg and Marcela Bradbury

2. State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP)
EIA conducts SHOPP as part of a cooperative agreement with State Energy Offices to collect and publish weekly residential heating oil and propane price estimates each winter heating season (October through March)
Data are collected by telephone and using Form EIA-877, Winter Heating Fuels Telephone Survey
Prices are collected weekly from independent samples of residential heating oil and propane retail outlets
A New Methodology for Frame Building and Sample Design for the State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP)
E. Cureg & M. Bradbury – JSM, Denver, CO – July 29, 2019

3. Current Sampling Methodology Limitations
EIA does not currently publish standard errors for weekly SHOPP price estimates but will when new samples introduced in October 2019
Current sample design relies on data from the EIA-863, Petroleum Product Sales Identification, a census survey of petroleum marketing companies last conducted in 2010 but not completed due to budget cuts in 2011
Without this survey, the current methodology does not capture the frequent changes to our survey population
Births and deaths are frequent due to low cost barrier to enter these markets combined with challenges for small businesses as a result of difficult market conditions
There are also many changes in company ownership, particularly for propane outlets, where many small companies have been sold to the three largest companies
A New Methodology for Frame Building and Sample Design for the State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP)
E. Cureg & M. Bradbury – JSM, Denver, CO – July 29, 2019

4. Constructing New SHOPP Frames
Corporate-level data from the previous census survey were used as a basis for the new SHOPP frames, but were outdated and did not provide information on each corporation’s outlets
New sources for SHOPP frames were researched, acquired, and cleaned
Linkage of the different sources was performed using the RecordLinkage package in R
Challenges presented in frame construction included different levels of data (corporate headquarters vs. outlet), inaccuracies in data sources, and linkage of old EIA survey data to new outlet listings which reflect company sales and mergers
A New Methodology for Frame Building and Sample Design for the State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP)
E. Cureg & M. Bradbury – JSM, Denver, CO – July 29, 2019

5. New Sources for Construction of SHOPP Frames
Unit identification
Advantages
Limitations
BLS’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
Outlet location identified by NAICS code (Fuel Dealers)
Accuracy of NAICS classifications; cleaner data; better representation locations still in business; no cost
Data unavailable for 9 of 38 survey states; only one NAICS classification per entity
Equifax Data
Outlet locations identified by both NAICS code and SIC codes 5983 and 5984 (Heating Oil and Propane Dealers)
Data available for all 38 survey states; very comprehensive; parent company information available
Includes many closed locations misclassified as current; NAICS/SIC errors; cost
Industry Association Membership Lists
Outlet locations and/or corporate headquarters
Membership is a strong indication the entity is in scope
Not available for all states; not every entity is a member, even for large organizations
State Government lists (HEAP, Tax)
Some lists indicate type of dealer; no cost
Data not available for all states; differences in data field availability and list maintenance
A New Methodology for Frame Building and Sample Design for the State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP)
E. Cureg & M. Bradbury – JSM, Denver, CO – July 29, 2019

6. Design for the New SHOPP Samples
Primary strata based on state of an outlet’s location instead of state where fuel is delivered
Three substrata formed within a given primary (state) stratum based on available data on sales volumes
Outlets associated with largest sales volumes (initial target being 75% of most recent sales) split into certainty substratum and “large” noncertainty substratum
Remaining outlets assigned to “medium and small” noncertainty substratum
Substrata allows us to select outlets from large companies in the state with a higher probability while controlling the weights on the other outlets
Substrata prevents the possibility of selecting mostly outlets from the large companies, which over time may buy many of the other outlets
A New Methodology for Frame Building and Sample Design for the State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP)
E. Cureg & M. Bradbury – JSM, Denver, CO – July 29, 2019

7. Design for the New SHOPP Samples, Continued
Each noncertainty substratum is sorted by county and ZIP code, then a systematic random sample is selected to prevent selecting outlets from only a certain part of the state
Neyman allocation for primary strata based on number of outlets represented on the frame and estimation of average standard deviation of weekly prices based on the current sample
Total sample size increased from 1,562 outlets to approximately 2,700 outlets due to frame limitations and discontinuance of practice of replacing outlets identified as out of business, out of scope, or nonrespondents
Sampled outlets will be asked to report recent annual sales volumes, which will be input to volume-weighted price estimates
Annual samples of newly identified outlets to augment initial samples
A New Methodology for Frame Building and Sample Design for the State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP)
E. Cureg & M. Bradbury – JSM, Denver, CO – July 29, 2019

8. Acknowledgments
Thank you to the following staff for their valuable contributions to the SHOPP sample redesign:
Shala Brown
Alethea Jennings
David Gatton
David Kinyon
Geoff Grabowsky
Terrance Rosales
James Hackett
Javed Zaidi
Tammy Heppner
A New Methodology for Frame Building and Sample Design for the State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP)
E. Cureg & M. Bradbury – JSM, Denver, CO – July 29, 2019