1. 2020 Vision: Work, welfare and incomes into the next decade
Steven Toft

2. Themes Economic context Employment Changing shape of work
Pay and incomes
Changing shape of the workforce
Ageing society and pensions

3. Context: Deep recession and slow recoveryIn
Chart by Resolution Foundation based on ONS and Bank of England data

4. Everyone hit – some harder than others
Indices of GDP per capita: (2008 = 100, constant PPP)
Chart by Resolution Foundation

5. Record employment rate
Source: ONS

6. The employment mix has changed
Source: ONS

7. Earnings have suffered
Chart by Resolution Foundation

8. The housing mix has changed
Change in housing tenure, 1994‒1996 to 2013‒2015, by income quintile
Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies

9. Housing costs have eroded incomes
Chart by Resolution Foundation

10. Benefits doing a lot of heavy lifting
Chart by Institute for Fiscal Studies based on DWP data

11. Benefit squeeze
Chart by Institute for Fiscal Studies

12. Result: stagnating or falling incomes
Cumulative change in real (CPI-adjusted) non-pensioner equivalised disposable household income (after housing costs) since
Chart by Resolution Foundation based on DWP data

13. Changing shape of the workforce
The effects will be felt further up the skill ladder, as auditors, radiologists and researchers of all sorts begin competing with machines.
A labour market with great prospects for those able to demonstrate talent early, but with fewer pathways for those who need to progress to higher skilled occupations through career development in work. - UKCES
Source: ONS & UK Commission for Employment & Skills

14. Economic disadvantage is local
Source: Office for National Statistics

15. Proportion of the population over 65
Source: Office for National Statistics

16. Reliance on benefits and pensions
Source: Family Resources Survey, June 2016

17. Was postwar living standards growth a blip?
Source: Bank of England and Office for Budget Responsibility

18. There may be trouble ahead....
We seem to be in a period of low growth for the next 5 years – possibly longer
Earnings growth likely to be low
High employment but less secure
Benefit cuts likely to lead to rising inequality and falling incomes
Changing employment structure – skills at a premium
Ageing population puts pressure on welfare and public services
Pensioners keeping the economy afloat in some areas

19. Building resilience
Building capacity
Innovation hubs
Renewable energy
Community housing
Skills
Engaged community
Social activities
Places to meet
Community centres
Libraries
Pubs
Good connectivity
Physical – public transport
Virtual – broadband
“Enable local people to find ways to rebuild and develop their local economies. In doing so, they are creating long-term sustainability and building social capital at the same time as strengthening their local economies and developing skills and employability for themselves and others.“

20. Social capital and social infrastructure
“Social capital is recognised as a driver for economic growth and as a facilitator for a variety of improvements for individual and wider community well-”being.” - ONS
“It is another form of capital that may matter every bit as much to wealth and well-being in society – social capital. There is now a strong body of evidence, looking across a large range of countries and over long periods of time, that high levels of trust and co-operation are associated with higher economic growth.” – Andy Haldane, Chief Economist, Bank of England