2. The Global Market and It’s Impact on Your Brewery
Tyler Schoales – Malt Specialist, North American Craft

3. Today’s Agenda Global Barley Markets
Snapshots of major growing regions with a global balance sheet
Australia
Black Sea
European Union
Impact on the marketplace
Global Summary
North American Market
Snapshots of Major Growing Regions
Canada
USA
Crop Expectations and Quality Report
NA Summary

4. Global Barley Markets

5. Global Barley Production

6. Global Barley Balance Sheet

7. Global Factors: Australia
Rainfall totals are still below average
Crop conditions better at this time this year than last two seasons
Very dependent on moisture as we progress out of Australian Winter
Could see an extra million tons of production versus last year

8. Global Factors: Black Sea
Ukraine set to have largest grain production ever recorded, with an extra half-million tons of production
Harvest 90% + completed
Russian harvest just beginning, good yields in the West
As harvest progresses East yields are declining and wet weather delaying harvest and quality concerns raised
Production similar to last year of 73mmt, versus initial expectations of 80mmt

9. Global Factors: European Union
Winter crops are looking good across the map, and harvest progressing well
Spring barley showing concerns of dryness in many areas (Spain estimated to loose 2-million tons of production)
Yield will be affected already in many areas, but possible rain event in coming weeks could provide relief
Market currently $18USD higher per/MT FOB Sweden/Denmark in 2020 versus 2019
Overall production likely 3-4mmt higher than but quality still largest concern

10. Global Summary

11. Overall Global Outlook
Quality challenges in Black Sea, EU
EU Pricing is likely to be down somewhat from the very high points of 2018 Crop pricing
Minimal quality stocks from last year
Growing risks in Australia which can impact overall global market
Production overall should be up significantly versus last year
If quality can materialize then we should see price stabilization
2021 pricing already inducive to another large barley crop globally

12. North American Market

13. Canadian Barley Production
Top 3 Provinces
Alberta
Saskatchewa n
Manitoba
Predominantly mild winter temperatures until February
Severe temperatures in February (> -6°C from average)
Minimal moisture from October 2018 to March 2019
Several moisture events in April with increased temperatures
Soil moisture still light at planting, even though heavy snows in April helped
Warm temperatures from May 11th forward facilitated planting
Planting completed as of the end of May: ~2 weeks late

14. Canadian Barley Balance Sheet

15. Canadian Barley Outlook
Alberta
British
Columbia
Saskatchewan
Manitoba
Ontario
Quebec
Coastal
Containers
Plantings up overall across Canada, in response to tight carry-out of 2018 crop in Canada and Worldwide.
Producers also favouring Barley as Wheat and Canola Exports to China have been heavily impacted by trade foolishness.
Overall, the crop is 5 to 15 days behind the 5 year average.
Some concern that the delay could see some early fall weather.
Rainfall in late June was recorded helped relieve concerns over dryness, stabilising yield potential and improving overall crop conditions.
Lower temps and recent rains will likely drive lower proteins and good plumps in areas where the rains came on-time.
Following cool conditions with plenty of rain, the weather has turned to sun, with warm temps.
Overall the forecast is good for the coming weeks, with some spotty rain events – not a big concern at the moment, except MB.
Alberta General:
Overall, good looking crop in Alberta with some minor drought/heat stressed acres
75% of acreage in “Good to Excellent” condition
Saskatchewan General:
SK had no real rain through June 15 thus yields and proteins impacted
While rains were late average yields still a possibility
Average protein
Manitoba, Quebec, Ontario and Maine General:
Adequate moisture and moderate temps have driven good protein and plumps
Unfortunately high risk of DON across the board

16. U.S. Barley Production
Top 3 States
Idaho
Montana
North Dakota

17. U.S. Barley Production

18. USA Barley Outlook PROTEIN DOWN, what else CHANGES?
Washington (Palouse) 5%:
Slightly delayed planting with subsequent drop in ag yields
10-11% protein average, lowest in years!
Good overall quality
Idaho 65%:
Overall great crop with up to 1% drop in protein
Early assessment of dryland protein sitting around 10%
Winter barley programs continue to shine with best crop since development
Dakota’s:
Highway 2 and N had weak rains and therefore showing lower plumps and increased protein content
Highway 2 S Crop looking good with timely rains and adequate sunshine
Wyoming and Montana:
Good overall crop quality this year
Irrigated land performed once again and similar quality to be expected in 2019
Colorado:
OK crop this year with 30% curtailment on H2O impacting farmers
Expect some less than ideal quality due to cut back on irrigation practices
California / S Oregon 5%:
Expectations high for quality out of region
Good crop with timely rainfall and heat waves
Similar to previous years crop with average proteins %
Idaho winter crop looks good and warmer weather will get the barley to full maturity with harvest commencing this week. The heat will not hurt the crops but is needed to promote crop development.
Even with current warm temperatures during the day, the nights will still be cool. Spring barley crop in Idaho looks good with the earliest fields having the water turned off.
85% of the Idaho crop rated “Good” to “Excellent” by NASS-USDA
Montana crop is very good, but has some variability on Dryland areas. Irrigated areas look excellent.
92% of the Montana crop rated “Good” to “Excellent” by NASS-USDA
The Palouse (North Central Idaho, South Western Washington, Northeast Oregon) area has been cool with plenty of moisture. Warmer weather will help the crop. It was late getting planted and needs the growing degree days to reach maturity.
With DON pressure and excess moisture, ND will have a very challenged crop.
With the delayed planting, Harvest will start the later side of average.
PROTEIN DOWN, what else CHANGES?

19. NA Summary

20. Overall NA Crop Outlook
Crops across Canada and the US look quite good on quality and yield, with a couple of patchy zones
Plantings Up in Canada, Flat in the US with little carry over from previous year
North American Feed markets establishing a solid floor for Barley pricing, unlikely to see any reductions, even with the increased worldwide production
Barley continues to competing with GMO crops Canola, Corn, Legumes (Beans)
Barley Supply in Canada and the US very tight through New Crop delivery
US and Canadian Crops are a little behind – some risk of early autumn weather
Cooperation from mother nature has accelerated the growing season
Good Crop Year = Barley in the Bins