1. A Computer-Based Tool for Evaluating Dairy Expansion & Production
Victor E. Cabrera & Jay Janowski

2. “Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it
“Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” ~ Mark Twain ~

3. Topics
1. Overview & Introduction to the Dairy Expansion Decision Support System Tool (DE-DSS)
2. “How Can I Use This Program on My
Dairy Today?” (Case Study)
3. Results & Discussion

4. Topics
Overview & Introduction to the Dairy Expansion Decision Support System Tool (DE-DSS)
2. “How Can I Use This Program on My
Dairy Today?” (Case Study)
3. Results & Discussion

5. Overview
Mission: Foster a proactive approach to forecast future cash flow
Organize Information
Simulate Changes in Herd Structure & Performance
Effectively evaluate management changes & facility upgrades

6. Benefits Anticipate Potential Problems Plan Ahead Risk Management
“See the future”
Plan Ahead
“Measure twice, cut once”
Risk Management
“Maximize your potential”

7. Program Operations Microsoft Excel User-friendly
Avoid “paralysis of analysis” – browse the user manual
Fully Customizable Format
Over 250 input cells describe herd & farm conditions
Does require thorough records and time commitment to complete
Quality of information out depends on Quality of information in

8. “What IF…?” Real – Time Simulation
Herd Structure
Cattle Purchases/Sales
Aggressive Herd Expansion
Sensitivity Analysis – Quantify Changes in:
Milk Price
Milk Production
Culling Rates
General Dairy-Related Expenses
Monitor individually or more than one at the same time!

9. Topics
Overview & Introduction to the Dairy Expansion Decision Support System Tool (DE-DSS)
2. “How Can I Use This Program on My
Dairy Today?” (Case Study)
3. Results & Discussion

10. Case Study – Identify the Issue
Current freestall barn is limiting production & growth
Stall size too small
Cull Rates are too high
Inefficient layout
Overcrowded
“I want to build a new freestall barn to accommodate future herd growth (from 200 to 300 total cows in 3 years). If I do this, I expect to see a production increase of 4 lb/cow/day and a decrease in my culling rates.
How can the DE-DSS help me during the planning process?”

11. Case Study - Inputs 200 Dairy Cows Initial Herd Structure
81: 1st Lactation 24,000 RHA
65: 2nd Lactation 25,000 RHA
52: 3rd Lactation 25,000 RHA
Mailbox Milk Price: $15.25
Feed Cost: $0.09/lb DM
General Labor Cost: $12/hr
Other farm expenses: $175,000/yr

14. Inputs – Sensitivity Analysis
These Inputs will be the same for lactations 2 & 3.

15. Topics
Overview & Introduction to the Dairy Expansion Decision Support System Tool (DE-DSS)
2. “How Can I Use This Program on My
Dairy Today?” (Case Study)
3. Results & Discussion

16. “Should we purchase bred heifers or grow from within?”
Purchase 15 Bred Heifers each month in months 1-5
No Cattle Purchases

17. “How will my bottom line benefit from the new freestall barn?”
Current vs. Improved Situation
+ 22.1% % % %
Income Over Variable Cost ($/cow/month)
Current
Improved

18. “How will my bottom line benefit from the new freestall barn?”
Current vs. Improved Situation %
Net Present Value of Cash Flow ($/farm)
Mean $1,879/month
Current
Mean $2,012/month
Improved %
+ 49.8%
+ 66.3%

19. Current vs. Improved Situation
“What IF…”
Milk Price Increases to $16.00/cwt One Year From Now
Current vs. Improved Situation % % % % % % % %
Original Increase
New Increase
Current
Income Over Variable Cost ($/cow)
Improved

20. Current vs. Improved Situation
“What IF…”
Milk Price Increases to $16.00/cwt One Year From Now
Current vs. Improved Situation % %
Original Increase
New Increase
Current
Mean $2,283/month
Net Present Value of Cash Flow ($/farm)
Improved % %
Mean $2,536/month % % % %

21. DairyMGT.info