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2018 Eurostat Annual Report overview - A64 elements

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1 2018 Eurostat Annual Report overview - A64 elements
Ag , & 8.1, 9.1 Document: A6465/19/05a 2018 Eurostat Annual Report overview - A64 elements Working Group on Articles 64 & 65 of the Staff Regulations Meeting in Luxembourg 26 & 27 March 2019

2 Content of this presentation
Reminder of timeline and report structure Reminder who is affected Overview of A64 elements in report: JBLI CC for Intra-EU staff CC for Pensioners CC for Extra-EU staff Link to other presentations

3 Similar production timeline to previous
A year-long exercise! Legal requirements respected 1st Extra-EU report via Ares (Aug-Jan) Interim report via Ares January) 2nd Extra-EU report via Ares (Feb-Jun) Annual report via Ares July) Analytical categories report onto website

4 Only just achieved for 2018? Extra #1 = 2 wks late (PY ) Interim = 3 wks late (PY ) Extra #2 = 3 wks late (PY ) Annual = 1 wks late (PY ) Analytic = 5 wks late (PY ) Annex 2 = 5 wks late (PY ) Reason: 50% staff cut (delayed recruit/non-replacement) Competing (increased) workload

5 Subsequent steps also similar timeline
Since 2013 reform, automatic adoption procedure: Interim report: only if % change exceeds threshold Annual report: all values are updated Eurostat calculation, followed by: DGHR budget impact report internal administrative processes Council WPSR for information Communication in Official Journal pay slips INTERIM ANNUAL April/May November [May] [June] December June (retro) December (retro)

6 Report structure and content

7 Intermediate Reports Extra-EU #1 (ref. Aug-Jan)
To DGHR [figures already presented at GTR ] Interim (ref. January) To DGHR Extra-EU #2 (ref. Feb-Jun) To DGHR

8 Intra-EU intermediate report structure and content
2018 = 5th Intra-EU interim report under Staff Regulations as amended October 2013 Similar transparent content as last year's report, new PPP change tables MAIN TEXT 6 pages 0 tables Annex 1 - SI 5 pages 4 tables Annex 2 - JBLI 3 pages 6 tables Annex 3 - CC 9 pages 5 tables Annex 4 - CC+SI 1 page 24 15 + non sample + PPP change section PY = PY = 13

9 Extra-EU intermediate reports structure and content
2018 = 9th and 10th Extra-EU interim reports under Staff Regulations as amended October 2013 Similar transparent content as last year's reports, more explanatory text Period Main text Annex Aug-Jan 4 pages 13 pages 13 tables (6 months) Feb-Jun 11 pages 11 tables (5 months) Same structure as PY

10 Did 2018 Intermediate Reports result in CC changes?
Duty stations Changes signalled Intra-EU staff 33 (ie.31) - Pensioners 28 (ie.26) Extra-EU (1st) 145 (ie. 144) 4* + 15 = 19 Extra-EU (2nd) 5* + 32 = 37 PY - 26 45 * CC > 100 Restart WestBank (1st) + South-Sudan (2nd). None stopped.

11 Annual Report structure and content
2018 = Fifth annual report under Staff Regulations as amended October 2013 Similar transparency content to last year's report. New Extra-EU table. New STF+PEN summary box + more components to explain than usual. MAIN TEXT pages 10 tables Appendix 1a - SI pages 21 tables Appendix 1b - JBLI pages tables Appendix 1c - CC pages tables 119 pages 52 tables More explanation (-2) Add 9.2, summary of components STF,PEN (+8) PY = PY = 55

12 Who/what is affected by the JBLI
Remuneration in Brussels/Luxembourg (+ therefore everywhere else) of: Active EU staff (permanent, temporary, contract) of EU institutions - eg. in EU Representations, Joint Research Centres, Extra-EU Delegations - and of EU Agencies Seconded teachers at European Schools Retired EU staff, plus transfers into/from EU pension scheme By collaboration: Staff of other international organisations (UN, OECD, EPO, EuroControl, EIB, ECB, …) input into CC calculation

13 Who/what is affected by the CC
Remuneration outside Brussels/Luxembourg of: Active EU staff (permanent, temporary, contract) of EU institutions - eg. in EU Representations, Joint Research Centres, Extra-EU Delegations - and of EU Agencies Seconded teachers at European Schools Retired EU staff, plus transfers into/from EU pension scheme Other: Researcher mobility under FP7; Education mobility under LLL (LdV, Comenius, Eurasmus); Equalisation coefficients in Joint Sickness Insurance Scheme; Mission expenses (DSA and hotel ceilings) By collaboration: Staff of other international organisations (UN, OECD, EPO, EuroControl, EIB, ECB, …)

14 Numerical example (constant PPP fluctuating XR)
NB. Only PPP component of CC is relevant: exchange rate impact cancels out CC = PPP ÷ ER so it can be noted that when Euro salaries are paid in local currency and have the CC applied to them, the exchange rate impact is effectively removed to leave only the price level impact, as can be seen in the following diagram. Salary in Brussels (in Euro) Exchange rate (Euro to currency) Correction coefficient (= PPP ÷ Exchange rate) Salary in duty station (in currency) Numerical example (constant PPP fluctuating XR) 1000 EUR x 77.1% (= / 4.160) x = local 1000 EUR x 71.2% (= / 4.500) x = local 1000 EUR x 82.2% (= / 3.900) x = local

15 Annual update 2018 (outside Brussels/Luxembourg)
Real GSI % PPP change % Ann Adj DS % JBLI % 99.6 × × ???.? 100 × 100 = ???.? "Implicit index" = total price effect = JBLI x PPP change

16 Annual update 2018 (outside Brussels/Luxembourg)
= alternative presentation of formula on previous page Ann Adj BXL % PPP change % Ann Adj DS % × ???.? = ???.?

17 DGHR estimated budgetary impact of 2018 update - A64 element
Ch. V Other Ch. Total Intra-EU interim report CC .. 1st Extra-EU interim report CC 2nd Extra-EU interim report CC -0.60 mn € Intra-EU annual report CC -0.20 mn € +7.80 mn € +7.60 mn € Extra-EU annual report CC -2.40 mn € Sub-total -3.20 mn € +4.60 mn €

18 Joint Belgium-Luxembourg Index
Main report Table 3 (COICOP 12-groups) Appendix 1b Table 3.1 & 3.1a (Belgium HICP + with owner weights) Table 3.2 & 3.2a (Luxembourg CPI + with owner weights) Staff numbers in Brussels and Luxembourg

19 Calculating the Joint Belgium-Luxembourg Index
Brussels FBS 80BH Brussels BXL/LUX Approx. 80% JBLI GLOBAL EU staff t0 Belgium BXL/LUX HICP 80BH JBLI 80BH Luxembourg CPI 80BH Luxembourg Calculating the Joint Belgium-Luxembourg Index Approx. 20% EU staff t0 Eurostat

20

21 Elements of JBLI change 2017-2018
Reweight HICP Belgium (natT → BXLT+O) = → = -0.5 x 80% = Reweight CPI Luxembourg (natT → BXLT+O) = → = +0.2 x 20% = Combined = -0.36

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24 JBLI - staff numbers (weights)
Laspeyres-type index, therefore use staff numbers as at July 2017 (= December 2016 from PSEO), all institutions and agencies): For comparison, ratio at July 2016 (= December 2015) was 81.6 : (43,152)

25 Intra-EU staff Main report Appendix 1c
Table 5 (2018 CC = 2018 PPP ÷ 2018 XR) Table 4 (2018 PPP PPP + % change PPP) Appendix 1c Table 4.3 (decomposition of % change PPP) Table 4.1 ( group PPP + WGT) Table 4.2 (2018 rent data) Table 5.4 & 5.4a (decomposition of % change rent PPP +glob) Table 5.5 & 5.6 (effect of rent on total CC + PPP) Graph (rank) HICP *new* Box: Summary of component impacts

26 Observations 2017-2018 1/3 CC above 100, 2/3 below (similar to past)
No new duty stations added (but several queries) No problems with regular data processing: ECP; non capital city duty stations (DE, IT); HICP; EARS; PEN rent ratio capital:national More components than usual to explain Electric+Gas; Education; Healthcare; BH79+80; FBS Heightened political attention Cross-border product labelling enquiry (ECP implication) Attractiveness/recruitment (Out-of-Area project) Equality of treatment (Luxembourg)

27 JBLI 80 BH Eurostat

28 Intra-EU staff CC values July 2018
Duty station 50 – 70 3 BG, PL, RO 70 – 75 2 LT, HU 75 – 80 4 HR, CY, LV, SK 80 – 90 5 CZ, EE, EL, PT, SI 90 – 100 7 DEBer, DEBon, DEKar, ES, ITRom, ITVar, MT 100 – 110 NL, AT, UKCul 110 – 125 DEMun, IE, FR, FI, SE 125 – 145 DK, UKLon Total 31 excluding BXL=LUX=100

29 Intra-EU staff PPP changes 2017-18 (AVG +1.8%, STD 1.8%)
Duty station -1.8 ≤ X < 0 7 DK, IE, ITRom, ITVar, LT, PL, FI 0 ≤ X < 1.8 6 FR, HR, NL, AT, RO, SK, UKLon 1.8 ≤ X < 3.6 12 BG, DEBer, DEBon, DEKar, DEMun, EE, EL, ES, HU, RO, SE, UKCul 3.6 ≤ X < 5.4 CZ, CY, LV, MT, PT, SI Total 31 excluding BXL=LUX

30 Elements of 2017-18 PPP change for Intra-EU staff
No change to basic calculation methodology Some standard elements: - Relative movement of consumer price indices - Replace 2x validated ECP consumer price surveys - Replace 1x validated rent survey (6 year average) Several one-off elements: - Electricity PPP, Gas PPP - Education PPP, Healthcare PPP - Imputation of missing PPP BH79+80 - FBS expenditure weights

31 Summary of component impacts on global PPP

32 2018 rent PPP impact (on global PPP)
% Average +0.6 St.Dev. 0.8 Minimum -0.9 Maximum +2.8 BH with important expenditure weight ‰ in BXL and average ‰ elsewhere (range ‰ – ‰ with standard deviation 44.3 ‰).

33 Components of 2018 rent PPP impact
AVG ◄ EARS 2012 +0.4 ► EARS 2018 +0.1 Indexation No change to weights 0.0 Currency conversion (BG, HR, RO only) TOTAL +0.6

34 Rent PPP relative to other PPP
2018 rent PPP lower than other PPP in 7 MS BG, DEBon, DEKar, EL, ITVar, CY, SI 2018 ratio of rent PPP to other PPP higher than 1.5 to 1 in 5 MS IE, FR, HU, SE, UKLon (LU)

35 2018 Education PPP impact on global PPP
% Average +0.9 St.Dev. 0.8 Minimum -0.2 Maximum +3.7 Affects 1 BH with important expenditure weight 14.7 ‰ in BXL and average 27.4 ‰ elsewhere (range 14.8 ‰ – 60.9 ‰). Reminder: three components: European Schools Type 1; State schools; Private schools (Anglophone, AEFE/ZfA, other).

36 Impact of HICP on 2018 PPP Affects all 80BH
% Average -0.2 St.Dev. 0.8 Minimum -2.3 Maximum +1.7 Affects all 80BH National aggregation weights only include tenants. SHE weights also include owner-occupiers

37 2018 MS HICP relative to BE (1 of 2)
Decrease (lower than BE) in 26; increase (higher) in 6

38 2018 MS HICP relative to BE (2 of 2)
Decrease (lower than BE) in 22; increase (higher) in 10

39 Impact of ECP 17-1 “services” on 2018 global PPP
% Average +0.5 St.Dev. 1.1 Minimum -2.2 Maximum +3.0 Affects 26 BH, with important expenditure weight ‰ in BXL and average ‰ elsewhere (range ‰ – ‰). Positive impact in 20, negative impact in 11

40 ECP survey E17-1 Services BH Bxl Wgt 22 47 23 48 24 49 25 50 26 51 27
Footwear repairs and hire Comb E15.2 47 Passenger transp.by road 23 Services for reg. maintenance 48 Passenger transp.by air 24 Water supply 49 Passenger transp.by water 25 Refuse and sewerage [impute] 50 Combined passenger transp. 26 Electricity ENERGY 51 Other purchased transp. 27 Gas 52 Postal services 28 Solid, liquid and heat energy 53 Telephone services Comb E16.1 31 Repair of furniture 58 Repair audio-visual 34 Repair of household appliance 60 Repair major durables 38 Domestic services 64 Pet related services 44 Maintenance pers. Transport 65 Recreational services 45 Other services pers. Transport 66 Cultural services 46 Passenger transp.by rail 70 Package holidays

41 Impact of ECP 17-2 “furniture; health” on 2018 global PPP
% Average +0.5 St.Dev. 0.4 Minimum -0.3 Maximum +1.3 Affects 4 BH, with expenditure weight 56.2 ‰ in BXL and average 55.4 ‰ elsewhere (range 37.5 ‰ – 70.1 ‰). Positive impact in 27, negative impact in 4

42 ECP survey E17-2 Furniture; Health
BH 29 Furniture and furnishings 30 Carpets and other floor coverings 32 Household textiles BH . Pharmaceuticals Other medical products Therapeutic appliances and equipment Doctors; Dentists; Paramedics Hospitals 2016 39 Healthcare

43 Impact of BH79 + BH80 imputation on 2018 global PPP
% Average -0.1 St.Dev. 0.6 Minimum -2.8 Maximum +0.6 Affects 2 BH, with expenditure weight 27.6 ‰ in BXL and average 25.4 ‰ elsewhere (range 13.1 ‰ – 44.4 ‰). Positive impact in 16, negative impact in 15 Prices not compiled by ECP. Comparison resistant. Apply reference PPP = July 2017

44 Pensioners Main report Appendix 1c
Table 7 (2018 CC = 2018 PPP ÷ 2018 XR) Table 6 (2018 PPP PPP + % change PPP) Appendix 1c Table 6.3 (decomposition of % change PPP) Table 6.1 ( group PPP + WGT) Table 6.2 (2018 rent ratio) Table 7.1 & 7.2 (effect of rent on total CC + PPP) Table 7.3 (compare Pensioner CC with Staff CC) *new* Box: Summary of component impacts

45 Pensioner CC values July 2018
Member State 45 – 65 4 BG, HU, PL, RO 65 – 75 5 CZ, HR, LV, LT, SK 75 – 85 EE, EL, CY, SI 85 – 100 ES, IT, MT, PT 100 – 110 DE, FR, NL, AT 110 – 125 IE, FI, SE, UK 125 – 145 1 DK Total 26 excluding BXL=LUX=100

46 Pensioner PPP changes 2017-2018 (AVG +0.3%, STDEV 2.2%)
Member State -4.1 ≤ X < -1.9 3 IE, IT, LV -1.9 ≤ X < 0.3 10 CZ, DK, EL, NL, AT, PL, RO, SK, FI, SE 0.3 ≤ X < 2.2 7 DE, EE, ES, FR, HR, LV, HU 2.2 ≤ X < 4.4 6 BG, CY, MT, PT, SI, UK Total 26 excluding BXL=LUX In bold = July 2017 or 2018 CC value > 100 ie. applied

47 Elements of 2017-18 PPP change for Pensioners
No change to basic calculation methodology Some standard elements: - Movement in Staff PPP ie. relative movement of consumer price indices; replace 2x validated ECP consumer price surveys; replace 1x validated rent survey (6 year average); 2017: new SHS taper weights - Update capital/country rent ratios Aggregated using FBS expenditure weights (results of 2013 survey already integrated for the 2016 exercise)

48 Summary of component impacts on global PPP for pensioners

49 2018 rent PPP impact (on global PPPPEN)
% Average +0.9 St.Dev. 0.8 Minimum -0.5 Maximum +2.9 BH with important expenditure weight ‰ in BE and average ‰ elsewhere (range 38.1 ‰ – ‰ with standard deviation 68.0 ‰).

50 2018 rent ratio impact (on global PPPPEN)
% Average -1.0 St.Dev. 1.0 Minimum -3.2 Maximum +1.6 national rent level : capital city rent level BE:BXL = 0.89, average elsewhere = 0.71 (min 0.39, max 1.18) Big ratio changes in EL, LT, NL, PT

51 Extra-EU staff Main report Appendix 1c
Table 9 (2018 CC = 2018 PPP ÷ 2018 XR) Table 8 (2018 PPP PPP + % change) Appendix 1c Table 9.1 (% change CC>100) *new* Table 9.2 (decomposition of % change PPP)

52 Observations One new DS added (= Mongolia). Restarted time series for 2 DS (South-Sudan; West Bank/Gaza). Did not cease publication for any DS. Updated FBS for all DS using UN data, allows integration available Education and Healthcare price data No particular problems with integration new UN P2P or ECP Have covered all but 4 duty stations since 2009 MoU Change to local currency for DRCongo as USD peg stopped Update of USANYC still pending negotiations BLS/BEA not 5x Balkans ECP again this year because no detailed CPI Israel-Tel Aviv and Chile-Santiago postponed to 2019 At July % (=20 of 145) DS had CC > Compares with situation July % (=26 of 144).

53 Extra-EU staff CC values July 2018
Duty station n/a 10 X < 75 57 75 ≤ X < 100 58 100 ≤ X < 125 15 125 ≤ X 5 Total 145 excluding BXL=LUX=100 PY 12 47 59 19 7 144 >100 = 14% 18%

54 Extra-EU staff PPP changes 2017-18 (AVG +1.6%, STDEV 9.4%)
Duty station with CC>100 X < -7.8 9 Min -16.1% (Laos) -7.8 ≤ X < 1.6 75 1.6 ≤ X < 10.9 36 10.9 ≤ X 10 Max +68.9% (Sudan) blank 15 Mongolia, South-Sudan, West Bank, DRCongo, Mauritania Total 145

55 Extra-EU methodology vs Intra-EU
CC calculated on a monthly basis, and presented in two Intermediate Reports plus the Annual Report. New CC apply once PPP variation from existing value exceeds 5%. Application of CC is at discretion of staff, thus CC is generally only requested if value >100. Switch to Intra-EU 80BH classification implemented 2017. New FBS weights in 2018 allow integration of available healthcare and education price data

56 Extra-EU New regionalised weights
Regions UN ECP DS comments African 49 Libya - Somalia suspended Asia 33 3 Afghanistan - Indonesia BA – Iran – Iraq – Syria -Yemen suspended Australia 6 Europe 10 4   5 Balkans included Aug 2018 Bosnia & Herzegovina BL suspended North America 13 South America 12 Venezuela suspended Total 123  10 suspended DS

57 28 new UN survey data introduced…
1 for 1st Intermediate Report (West Bank/Gaza Strip) 26 for 2nd Intermediate Report Feb-June 2018: Angola, Azerbaijan, Barbados, Benin, Cambodia, Cape Verde, Democratic Republic Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Laos, Mali, Namibia, Niger, Panama, Rwanda, Singapore, South-Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Timor Leste, Turkmenistan, Vanuatu. 1 for July (Mongolia) …plus 12 other new PPP data 7x ISRP locations AUS, CAN, JAP, KOR, MEX, NZL, USAWDC 5x ECP locations IS, NO, CHBer, CHGen, TR (not Balkans)

58 Summary of UN P2P processed in 2018 and integrated for CC production
Duty stations Number of surveys processed (2017 UN Surveys) 28 Impact = move CC <100 to CC >100 Impact = move CC >100 to CC <100(Rep Dem Congo from 227 to 88) 1 Restarted (South Sudan from 0 to 125)(West Bank/Gaza using Jerusalem) 2 New delegation (Mongolia from 0 to 66.5) Replacing oldest survey (Namibia) Feb-2008 Replacing most recent survey (Eritrea surveyed every year) Jun-2016 => Average BH coverage 63/80 = 79% => Average BH estimated 17/80 = 21% Egypt, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Rep Dem Congo, Guinea Bissau, Vanuatu, Niger, Sudan, Sri Lanka, Barbados, Benin, Cape Verde, Angola, Guinea, Mali, Namibia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Georgia, Laos, Panama, Singapore, South Sudan, Eritrea, Timor Leste, Turkmenistan, Mongolia

59 % Coverage DS by P2P since 1991
90% DS processed within 9 years 100% DS with CC>100 processed within 6 years Except for NY and Nouméa (9 years) 90 % within 9 years hence 131 out of 145 Keeping in mind 10 DS (meaning an additional 7%) have a CC = 0 means 141 out of 145, this left 4 DS not accounted which are: bangladesh Dhaka; Vietnam; Pakistan; West Bank Gaza were surveyed in 92, 96; 99 and 2000 respectively. Other DS like New Caledonia, Hong Kong were surveyed in 2009. Taiwan in 2016

60 90% coverage comments Target per manual = refresh basic data 5-7 years
UN cycles =5 yr so theoretical max. delay =10 yr 90% coverage of 145 DS means 131 DS covered Adding 10 DS with no CC means 141 DS (97%) Leaves 4 DS that were surveyed before 2009: Bangladesh Dhaka 1992 Vietnam 1996 Pakistan 1999 West Bank Gaza [NB. now use Jerusalem]

61 Decrease CC Dem.Rep.Congo
Both X-rates CDF and USD were fixed. Parity Dem.Rep.Congo was expressed in USD. UN P2Ps processed gave the following results: Ex: 1 Kg rice that was priced 7.64 USD in 2016 was priced 2.39 USD in 2017. Inflation and X-rates are not linked since the difficulty to keep the PPP expressed in USD once a P2P survey is performed.

62 X-Rates CDF and USD (to Euro)

63 History 13 DS & USD or local money

64 New Caledonia Satellite office Delegation Pacific Fiji
French overseas territory Decolonisation started 1988: independence referendum 1998, 2018 and 2022. Not yet independent, not covered by UN and not surveyed since 2009. Options: CC New.Cal. =CC France (c.100 excl rent) Or =CC Fiji (c.80) Or New survey (for 2 pers) Or PPP extended as now

65 New-York (UN reference city)
UN new approach (2016) using ECP methodology First UN test suggest a difference of 18% ECP products (new to UN, albeit similar) Shops selected using ECP approach (new to UN) Eurostat is seeking cooperation with BLS-UN-ISRP to run next survey in NY using ECP approach. All UN next P2Ps are pending decision on New-York results (Ref city) Eurostat will use ECP prices collected in Brussels. Meanwhile CC = extrapolating 2009 survey…

66 Summary of ECP processed in period
NB. July PPP data from annual report was introduced as basis for following August intermediate report, updated with HICP (for ESTAT) and UN CPI (for ISRP). 2019, Chile & Israel could be covered by ISRP Coordinated by ESTAT Coordinated by ISRP IS - Reykjavik AUS - Canberra NO - Oslo CAN - Ottawa CH - Bern JAP - Tokyo CH - Geneva KOR - Seoul TR - Ankara MEX - Mexico City 5x Balkans: not updated this time NZL - Wellington USA - Washington

67 Other remarks 10x no value published due to political/economic uncertainties Afghanistan, Bosnia-Hercegovina (BanjaLuka), Indonesia (BandaAceh), Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen

68 CPI sources 2016 2017 2018 UN (NSI) 85 86 89 NSI direct 40 37 36
ESTAT HICP 5 IMF 4 n/a 9 12 10 144 145 NB. Since 2017: US official regional index for New York

69 Currencies used 2016 2017 2018 Local 115 117 CFA Franc 13 US Dollar 10
9 CMA Rand 4 Euro 2 144 145 2018: Add Mongolia Change for Democratic Republic Congo

70 Annual Adjustment 2017 Main report Appendix 1c
AA = GSI x JBLI (Brussels/Luxembourg) Appendix 1c AA = GSI x JBLI x PPP change Table 4bis (Intra-EU staff) Table 6bis (Pensioners) Table 8bis (Extra-EU staff)

71 Analytical category report structure and content
Published on dedicated section (PY ) 2018 = 5th such report under Staff Regulations as amended October 2013 Similar transparency content to last year's report 35 categories (global; 12xCOICOP; rent; global excl.rent; +20) Section Coverage Pages Tables Intro - 1 Annex 1 (STF) 33 4 Annex 2 (PEN) 28 Annex 3 (JBLI) 10 3

72 Link to related presentations
Ag Dissemination A64 Ag.07 International collaboration Ag.10.1c Price statistics briefing: Dual brand quality Ag.10.3 Out-of-area consumption

73 Thank you for your attention!


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