1. Use of Seasonal Forecasts for Dams Management in Spain
José Voces Aboy, AEMET -
Eroteida Sánchez García, AEMET -
Ernesto Rodríguez Camino, AEMET -
Beatriz Navascués Fernández-Victorio, AEMET -

2. More Info at Poster Session
Seasonal Climate predictions in support of Water Reservoirs management in Spain
More Info at Poster Session
17:30
Hall A

3. Reservoir Inflow Forecasting System
Seasonal
Forecasting
Dynamical
Modeling
Statistical

4. Physical Explanation Statistical Method Source of Predictability
Forecasting Statistical Model
Source of Predictability
SAI
NAO
Statistical Method
Correlation
k-NN
Physical Explanation

5. SAI – AO(DJF) correlation. Cohen & Jones (2011)

6. SAI – Precipitation (DJF) correlation. Brands et al. (2012)

7. Reservoir Inflow Forecasting System
3-NN
Correlation
SAI
Sample
NAO
500 NAO samples
1500 ensemble members

8. Forecast Tercile probabilities Event probabilities
Reservoir Inflow Forecasting System
Forecast
Ensemble Members
(Events)
Tercile probabilities
Event probabilities
Año
Vol Entrada
Frec
Prob
1977
166.1 3
0.8
1978
291.6 4 1
1979
55.3 25
6.9
1980
19.1 42
11.7
1981
128.1 24
6.7
1982
55.2 48
13.4
1983
55.4 69
19.2
1984
124.7 7
1.9
1985
64.2 26
7.2
1986
21.4
1987
91.9
1988
9.4 60
16.7

9. (management software)
Selected reservoirs
Hindcast
SIMRISK
(management software)
Assessment
Criteria
Results
Conclusions
Assessment

10. Assessment

11. Assessment