1. Emulators of Irrigated Crop Yields Provide an Efficient Approach for Understanding Multisectoral Water-Energy-Land Dynamics
Objective: Develop statistical emulators to provide accessible tool to assess the impact of climate change on irrigated crop yields and irrigation water withdrawals, while accounting for crop modeling uncertainty.
Findings: The statistical emulators replicate the crop models’ spatial patterns of irrigated crop yields and irrigation water withdrawals reasonably well.
Impact: The research provides a computationally feasible approach for integrating irrigation water demands and crop yield effects into multisectoral models to study effects on land, water and energy use and their dynamics.
Changes in irrigated maize yields, 2000s -2090s, estimated by statistical emulators (col. 2) and global gridded crop models (GGCMs) (col. 1), and comparison (log ratio, col. 3). Emulators reproduce reasonably well the spatial patterns of climate change impacts on irrigated crop yields simulated by the GGCMs.
Blanc, E. (2018): Statistical Emulators of Irrigated Crop Yields and Irrigation Water Requirements. Joint Program Report Series (in press).