1. LAMAS Working Group 13-14 June 2019
Agenda Item 3.1 TF Labour Market Flows: main results

2. TF Labour Market Flows One meeting (Luxembourg, February 27&28 2019)
TF Members: BE, ES, FI, FR, IE, IT, NL, PT, UK, CH; ECB, DG EMPL
Main purpose: agree on a methodology to allow the production of year-on-year (annual) flows at Eurostat
Discuss experience with quarter-on-quarter (quarterly) flows, agree on some additions for quarterly flows

3. Why do we need annual flows?
Quarterly flows describe seasonality and, if adjusted for seasonality, short term movements
The average of quarterly flows just shows the average of these short term movements
Annual flows describe structural changes
High demand for this information:
DG EMPL (DG ECFIN, DG REGIO)
ECB, WHO/ILO
General public

4. Why another Task Force?
TF Flows recommended a method for quarterly flows, why not just use this?
During thattask force, two issues were identified which are more relevant for annual flows than they are for quarterly flows:
Movements in and out of scope of the longitudinal sample population
Attrition of the sample

5. Full transition matrix

6. Histogram of population changes in % for all years (2010-2017) and all countries

7. Annual flows – movements in and out of scope
Eurostat does not have the necessary data to fill the matrix
A simple correction approach from the BLS was judged to be of no additional value
Preference to keep consistency, since no good solution can be found to account for movements

8. Annual flows - attrition
Eurostat cannot differentiate between individuals moving internationally, nationally, non-response, refusal, death
Attrition estimates encompass thus all of these categories
Figures on next slide are expressed as average of share of those lost to the sample based on rotational pattern and interview wave when comparing two quarters (either consecutively, or two consecutive years)

9. Annual flows – attrition (2016-2017)

10. Annual flows- options to correct for differential attrition
Initial reweighting step to match target period margins for ILO status (by age group and sex)
Add more variables into reweighting
Some relevant variables are missing
Risks associated with excessive reweighting
Modelling not an option
Missing information on reason for drop-out
No studies on type of bias, no basis for models

11. Recommendation for annual flows
Start publication of annual flows based on current method used for quarterly flows (but restriction of age group only in target period)
simple and easily replicable
no good alternative options
Eurostat: test the BLS method to check impact for countries with large population changes
Eurostat: test initial reweighting including additional variables (region, degree of urbanisation, educational attainment)

12. Breakdowns for annual flows
Same approach as for quarterly flows
Requests:
EU aggregates by duration of unemployment, 8 levels
Transitions between ISCO groups
Transitions between hours worked categories
Transitions between contract types

13. Recommendations for quarter-on-quarter flows
Restriction of age group only in target period
Produce seasonally adjusted quarterly flows without additional raking step
Simplify regression: skip interaction terms
New flows from microdata with longitudinal weights
Detailed breakdowns for EU aggregates

14. Publication and communication strategy
Annual flows will be published as regular Eurostat statistics
Breakdowns will be published as "experimental" statistics
First publication will be accompanied by press release
Statistics Explained page will be extended to cover annual flows as well

15. EoV
Apologies to Austria for misrepresenting their method in the report
BLS = Bureau of Labour Statistics
Different rotational patterns – comparability questionable?

16. Eurostat would like to thank all members of the TF for their contributions and their time. The members of the LAMAS WG are invited to comment on the recommendations of the TF.