1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Market Outlook
Oct. 24, 2018
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2015 2016 2017 2018 Δ2018 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
88.0
94.0
90.2
89.1
0.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
168.4
174.6
176.6
180.7
-0.6
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,602
15,148
14,604
14,778
-49
Beg. Stocks
1,731
1,737
2,293
2,140
138
Imports 67 57 36 50
Total Supply
15,401
16,942
16,934
16,968 89
Feed & Residual
5,120
5,470
5,302
5,550
-25
Ethanol
5,224
5,432
5,601
5,650
Food, Seed, & Other
1,422
1,453
1,480
Exports
1,898
2,294
2,438
2,475 75
Total Use
13,664
14,649
14,793
15,155
Ending Stocks
1,813 39
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
3.61
3.36
3.50
0.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2015
2016
2017
2018
Δ2018
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
82.7
83.4
90.1
89.1
-0.4
Yield
(bu./acre)
48.0
52.0
49.3
53.1
0.3
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,926
4,296
4,411
4,690 -4
Beg. Stocks
191
197
302
438 44
Imports 24 22 25
Total Supply
4,140
4,515
4,734
5,153 40
Crush
1,886
1,901
2,055
2,070
Seed & Residual
122
146
112
138
Exports
1,936
2,166
2,129
2,060
Total Use
3,944
4,214
4,268
Ending Stocks
885
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
8.95
9.47
9.33
8.60
0.00
Source: USDA-WAOB 3 3

4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 4 4

5. USDA Objective Corn Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS 5 5

6. U.S. Corn Harvest Data
Source: USDA-NASS 6 6

7. Iowa Corn Harvest Data
Source: USDA-NASS 7 7

8. Projected Soybean Yields
Top: 2018 Yield Estimate
Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels per acre
Source: USDA-NASS 8 8

9. USDA Objective Soy Yield Data
Source: USDA-NASS 9 9

10. U.S. Soy Harvest Data
Source: USDA-NASS 10 10

11. Iowa Soy Harvest Data
Source: USDA-NASS 11 11

12. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 13 13

16. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 16 16

17. Pork Production
Source: USDA-NASS

18. Pork Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

19. Source: LMIC

20. Beef Production
Source: USDA-NASS

21. Beef Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

22. Source: LMIC

23. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

24. Corn Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

25. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

26. Soybean Export Shifts
Source: USDA-FAS

27. Soybean Market Shares Sales for 2017 crop Sales for 2018 crop
Source: USDA-FAS

28. Ethanol Production
Source: EIA

29. Ethanol Exports
Source: EIA

30. Current Corn Futures
4.04
3.72
Source: CME Group, 10/23/2018

31. Current Soybean Futures
9.11
8.52
Source: CME Group, 10/23/2018

32. 2018/19 Crop Margins
Based on futures prices

33. Iowa Corn Revenues vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices

34. Iowa Soybean Revenues vs. Costs
Based on USDA prices

35. Want to provide feedback on my presentation. https://www. surveymonkey

36. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: