1. The Economic And Financial Market Outlook Through 2020:
Still Grappling With The After-Effects Of A Post-”Meltdown” Economy
Gary Schlossberg
Senior Economist
Wells Fargo Asset Management

2. A “split personality” economy at mid-year

3. Growth driven increasingly by consumer spending at mid-year

4. Gauging the fall-out from the trade war
A temporary jump in tariff-exposed prices
A replay of the oil “shock?”
Lost business and consumer confidence
Less effective – and efficient – supply chains
Re-creating China’s infrastructure, pool of qualified labor, and developed supplier network

5. Bracing for an even more noticeable increase of inflation from the latest round of tariff increases

6. Trade/Policy uncertainties weighing on business confidence and investment spending plans

7. A more interest-sensitive housing market?

8. Lower interest rates suppress the federal debt payment burden, even as outstanding debt soars

9. The era of financial assets produces a near-doubling of their market size…

10. …while increasing market volatility

11. Another run at higher services inflation from accelerated wage gains…

12. …but the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge still is well below target

13. A still-sanguine outlook for fed policy still not reflected fully in the treasury futures market

14. “Stock-like” bond returns fighting the return to “normality”

15. Can subdued interest rates continue to support stock market valuations?

16. “Bluer skies” in the longer-term outlook
A productivity payback
Banking on a market-based economy’s innovation potential
Historically low inflation and interest rates
Support for investment, housing and other credit-sensitive sectors
Piggy-backing on a global economic growth engine
Highly competitive, internationally savvy multinationals and export-oriented firms

17. WFAM Disclosure
Wells Fargo Asset Management is the trade name of the investment management services provided by certain subsidiaries of Wells Fargo & Company (including Wells Fargo Funds Distributor, LLC, Wells Capital Management, The Rock Creek Group, Golden Capital Management, Peregrine Capital Management, Nelson Capital Management, ECM Asset Management, and Galliard Capital Management) and marketed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited or ECM Asset Management Limited. Wells Fargo Securities International Limited and ECM Asset Management Limited are authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority within the U.K. Certain investments are distributed in the United States by Wells Fargo Funds Distributor, LLC, Member FINRA/SIPC.
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