1. Assessing Africa’s Off-Grid Electricity Market F
Assessing Africa’s Off-Grid Electricity Market F. Andrew Dowdy Engineers Without Borders – USA*
*This presentation represents views of the author, not necessarily those of EWB-USA

2. Africa’s Electricity Challenge
Africa at heart of global challenge
2017: 840m globally without electricity, m in Sub-Saharan Africa
2030: 650m globally without electricity, m in Sub-Saharan Africa
80% of those in rural areas, far from grid
Image courtesy Fenix International
Off-grid power systems key
By 2030:
Solar home systems serve 86m
Mini-grids serve 45m
By 2040:
Possibly > 500m by both
Unprecedented development
GraceN.Cartography, commons.wikimedia.org

3. Household Electricity Demand
Miniscule Consumption
U.S. Household-900 kWh/mo
African HHs: kWh/mo.
Capacity to pay: $5-10/mo.
Prioritized Uses
Lights
Cellphone charging TV
Fan
Refrigerator
Pressing Iron
Falling loads
LED for lights and TV’s
Brushless DC motors for fans
Load 1/10th that of 1990’s

4. Supply: Cost Structure
Off-grid power is expensive
Cost varies with scale
SHS cheapest at small scales
Mini-grids at larger
Grid at largest

5. 2030 Cost Structure? Off-grid power is expensive
Cost varies with scale
SHS cheapest at small scales
Mini-grids at larger
Grid at largest
Technology improvements
Forecast to lower solar costs
But distribution costs unchanged
SHS’s become cheaper than mini-grids across consumption range

6. Market Outlook Solar home systems Grid extension Mini-Grids
Dominate household market
First mover advantage
“Paygo” financing
Lack of regulatory barriers
Technology → lower costs
Grid extension
Success varies by country
Hampered by poor regulatory environment & bankrupt utilities
Mini-Grids
Viable for larger towns and loads
But high cost similar to SHS
Plus regulated like grid
Tenuous market niche

7. Observations/Conclusions
Electricity Access
Outcomes vary by country
Most SSA countries will miss SDG 7 goals
But most households will achieve lighting, TV
Poverty the principal obstacle
Household resources < capital required
SSA much poorer than US during rural electrification
SHS’s in Refugee Camp in Nepal
Image: EWB – Larry Bentley
For Policymakers
Electricity access is important for human and economic development
But may not be the best use of limited donor resources
Electricity access not demonstrably tied to broader economic development
Investment probably exceeds $2000/household
Households exhibit other preferences for investment funds

8. The Thinker, Musee Rodin, by innoxiuss, Wikimedia Commons
Questions?