1. Development of Meso-scale Numerical Model System in IHR
Cui Chun-guang, Li Jun, Shi Yan
Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan

2. Contents 1. Review of development history
2. Research and application of AREM
3. development in near future
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3. 1. Review of development history
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4. From 1950’s to 1970’s barotropic model baroclinic dry model 2019/10/24
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5. From 1980’s precipitation model
1985, CRONWS (Central China Regional
Operational Numerical Weather forecasting System) -----Zhou Xiaoping
1990,MAPS（Mesoscale Analyses and Prediction System)-----Yu Kangqing
Middle-late 1990’s ,AREM (Advanced Regional Eta Model) -----Yu Rucong
MM5, Grapes etc.
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6. Application
1987
1995
CRONWS
1996
2004
MAPS
AREM
1999
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7. 2. Research and application of AREM
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8. 2.1 Main technical features
-ladder topography coordinate
Static deduction
IAP variable transformation
“half grid spacing difference scheme” of
E-grid
two-step shape-preserving advection scheme
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9. vertical ladder coordinate ()
Pt, =0
W, H
K=1
U, V, T, Q
K=1
W, H
K=2
U, V, T, Q
K=2
Ps, s
Ps, s
K=KM
Mountain
K=KM
Ps, s
K=KM+1
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10. V T Schematic Diagram to illustrate the
finite difference scheme on E-grid T V
Assumed point
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11. two-step shape-preserving advection scheme (Yu Rucong,1994)：
guarantee the calculation facticity of water vapor transfer directly associated with rainstorm
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12. 2019/10/24
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13. 2.2 Development course of AREM
From 1999 to 2003
Rem
AremV2.1
AremV2.3
AremV3.0
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14. Improvements of AREM
Resolution:
75Km
6Km
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15. Time-variation boundary
Improvements of AREM
Lateral boundary and upper boundary conditions:
Fixed boundary
100hPa
Time-variation boundary
10hPa
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16. Non-local boundary scheme
Improvements of AREM
Lower boundary conditions:
Non-local boundary scheme
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17. Improvements of AREM Physics options: Cold cloud micro-physics process
Betts convection adjustment
Saturation condensation
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18. Improvements of AREM Surface flux and radiation:
Bulk permutation method
CLM land surface process
Unabridged radiation process
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19. 3-dimensional variation
Improvements of AREM
Initial conditions:
Advanced Barnes
3-dimensional variation
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20. 2.3 AREM capability examination
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21. Geographic distribution of Heavy rain in China
Northern heavy rain
Northeastern heavy rain
Jul 20th~Agu 10th
Meiyu front heavy rain in Yangtze River valley
Jun~Jul
Southern heavy rain in former flood season
May~ Jun 10th
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22. Forecast experiments of heavy rain in Yangtse River valley
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23. heavy rain event in South Henan province in Jul 16th,2004
OBS
12km
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24. heavy rain event in Yangjiang city, Guangdong province in May 7th,2004
experiments of heavy rain in South China
heavy rain event in Yangjiang city, Guangdong province in May 7th,2004
12KM
OBS
37KM
6KM
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25. simulated 3-D cloud planform(0.1g/kg equivalence level)
Numerical simulation to Typhoon Rananim
simulated 3-D cloud planform(0.1g/kg equivalence level)
0600 UTC 12AUG2004
0700 UTC 12AUG2004
0800 UTC 12AUG2004
Infrared satellite cloud chart
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26. precipitation rate (mm/h) and 700 hPa streamline field
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27. track of Typhoon Rananim Red line: observed Blue line: simulated
12Z12
Red line: observed Blue line: simulated
06Z12
00Z12
18Z11
12Z11
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28. (averaged between 110°E and 122.5°E)
Time-Meridional cross section of daily mean precipitation rate in JJA 2003
(averaged between 110°E and 122.5°E)
OBS
AREM
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29. Northeast China
North China
South China
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30. 2019/10/24
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31. Black-simulated red-observed Max green-observed mean
Evolution in Precipitation Rate in mm/h
Hourly precipitation in Wuhan region during 20th-22th Jul,1998
Observed Max.
Simulated
Observed Mean
Black-simulated red-observed Max green-observed mean
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32. Contrast between AREM with other models 2003 2004 Grade AREM MM5 JAPAN
Parameter
Grade
AREM
MM5
JAPAN
T213 TS Ⅰ 66 43 49 51 Ⅱ 50 33 36 35 Ⅲ 42 24 30 28 Ⅳ 31 16 21 Ⅴ 10 11 PO 17 44 13 3 14 34 62 39 69 82 74 79 83 NH 23 46 47 54 60 45 65 64 53 72 61 78 85 77
Contrast between
AREM with other models
Parameter
Grade
AREM
MM5
JAPAN
T213 TS Ⅰ 65 57 58 54 Ⅱ 51 41 46 37 Ⅲ 39 28 Ⅳ 23 15 30 10 Ⅴ 9 5 1 PO 22 7 4 8 16 38 62 29 45 78 61 86 85 92 90 99 NH 32 44 40 52 60 48 64 63 68 75 83 89 67 94
2003
2004
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33. vertical structure of precipitation rate
AREM system can well describe all kinds of heavy rain events in China regions to the east of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau on following aspects :
rainband feature,
intensity,
vertical structure of precipitation rate
evolvement of hourly rainfall.
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34. Preliminary Test of 3-DVAR
Variation analysis based on Grapes/3DVAR system
1DVAR assimilation of precipitation
By Adjusting humidity and temperature profile
3DVAR assimilation of radar wind field
3DVAR of ATOVS
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35. Precipitation forecast capability is improved greatly by 3DVAR
3DVAR（red）and successive correction（blue）
Precipitation forecast capability is improved greatly by 3DVAR
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36. Real distribution of precipitation over 25mm
during Jul 8th-9th, :00 AM (unit:mm)
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37. Simulative 24h precipitation during Jul 8th-9th,2003 08:00 AM( unit: mm)
Wuhan & Yichand radars
wind field assimilation
Without radar
wind field assimilation
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38. 2.4 product distribution
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39. Publish online
3D display
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40. 3. Development in near future
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41. Improvements on physics scheme: cloud and rain course
boundary layer scheme
radiation course
surface flux parameterization
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42. Research on data assimilation technique
To develop schemes with the capability of assimilating such as :
radar reflectivity and wind ,
satellite data,
wind profile
GPS water vapor content,
rain gauge data
surface station etc.
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43. Research on data assimilation technique (continued)
Learn from RUC system and LAPS to build a meso-scale reanalysis system
wish to cooperate with
NSSL and FSL
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44. Research on short-term ensemble forecast technique
Based on initial field disturbance
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45. Interpretation technique of model forecast product
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46. Application technique of QPF on other areas
Flood forecast based on Hydrology-meteorology models coupling
Prediction of geological disaster caused by heavy rain
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47. AREM system in developing…
Meso-scale reanalysis
System based on 3/4Dvar
NCEP
T213
Meso-scale reanalysis field
Ensemble forecast based on initial disturbance
AREM
lateral condition provided by T213 forecasting field
First Guess Fields
Weather forecast
Geological disaster
Environment forecast
Numerical simulation
Hydrological application
Education & training
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48. Thanks !
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